A CGE assessment of a university's effects on a regional economy - supply-side versus demand-side effects

In recent years many universities have commissioned studies of the effect of their institution on the local economy. Typically these impact studies have concentrated on the demand-side stimuli to the regional economy that the university generates. Normally, the studies are undertaken with comparative-static input-output models. The present study employs a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model to investigate supply-side as well as demand-side effects. There are a range of supply-side effects that have been investigated in the spatial econometrics literature. The supply-side impacts of the university that we examine in particular are a rise in the average skill level of the local workforce, and successful R&D outcomes. CGE modelling allows simulation of the associated productivity effects, while the dynamic features of the model allow for consequent effects on the region's population and capital stock growth rates to be taken into account.

Tariffs in New Zealand : The economic impacts of retaining tariffs in New Zealand A dynamic CGE analysis

The government announced in late 2009 that it would freeze tariffs at current levels until 2015 at the earliest. We examine the potential costs and benefits to the New Zealand economy of this policy decision using a recently-developed dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy. We find that the elimination of tariffs in New Zealand delivers a very small increase in GDP as allocative efficiency improves. However, the terms of trade effects associated with the tariff removal generate a very small welfare loss. We assess the sensitivity of the welfare results to key elasticity parameters.dynamic computable general equilibrium, New Zealand, tariffs, allocative efficiency, cost benefit analysis

Competition reforms and collaborative federalism: a dynamic multiregional applied general equilibrium analysis

In 1995 all Australian state and territory governments entered into an agreement with the federal government to introduce a comprehensive program of national competition policy (NCP) reforms. A number of studies have attempted to assess the benefits of these reforms by (i) estimating, via data envelopment analysis or similar techniques, the productivity gap between Australian industries affected by the reforms and their foreign counterparts, and (ii) then modelling the long-run effects of bringing the relevant Australian industries to world-best-practice levels of efficiency. These studies have been criticised for having severely overestimated the efficiency gains from NCP, and for ignoring the associated labour market adjustments. In this paper we take advantage of FEDERAL-F's historical modelling and forecasting capabilities to take a new approach to the problem. First, to measure the efficiency gains from NCP, we use the observed changes in efficiency in one of the sectors subject to NCP reforms (utilities) immediately after the introduction of NCP (rather than following the earlier approach of making a comparison between actual and best-practice levels of productivity). The changes in the utilities sector's primary factor productivity pre- and post- the introduction of NCP are calculated during historical simulations with FEDERAL-F. We investigate the impacts that the changes in observed productivity improvements have had on regional indicators of aggregate economic activity, with particular attention to indices of regional labour market adjustment costs. The changes in these indices provide measures of the value of labour inputs that are lost as implementation of the NCP alters the flow of people between different labour market categories.

Regional macroeconomic outcomes under alternative arrangements for the financing of urban infrastructure

Many studies, both of Australia and of comparable developed economies, have found that the economic benefits from investment in urban infrastructure are substantial. However the nature of this infrastructure is often such that it is under-provided by the private sector. In Australia, much of the responsibility for the provision of urban infrastructure rests with state and local government. However throughout the 1990’s many of Australia’s state governments embarked on a period of fiscal restraint, seeking to improve financial positions weakened by exposure to failed state government enterprises in the early 1990’s. Perhaps because of the deferred consequences of reducing spending on infrastructure, a large proportion of this fiscal adjustment appears to have been borne by spending on public infrastructure. Today, policy attention at the state government level is again focussing on public infrastructure. However in spite of the now robust fiscal positions of Australia’s state governments, there remains a reluctance on their part to finance public infrastructure through debt, and raising taxes is perceived as politically unpopular. Instead, governments are exploring alternative financing instruments, such as developer charges and public-private partnerships. This paper uses a dynamic multi-regional CGE model (MMRF) to evaluate the regional macro economic consequences of four alternative methods of financing an expansion in state government spending on public infrastructure. The four methods are developer charges, payroll tax, government debt, and residential rates. The paper confirms that the services provided by public infrastructure can have significant impacts on the regional macro economy. More importantly however, the paper demonstrates that the total gains from urban infrastructure are quite sensitive to the means chosen by government to finance infrastructure investment. In contrast to up-front financing methods (such as developer charges, payroll tax, and residential rates), the paper finds that the gains from urban infrastructure are greatest when the chosen financing method provides a closer match between the timing of the burden of financing the infrastructure and the timing of the benefits provided by the infrastructure. This can be achieved by instruments such as debt, public-private partnerships, and user charges. On this basis the paper finds that a greater reliance by regional government son debt financing might be warranted, and that the gains from infrastructure expenditure are least when that expenditure is financed by developer charges.

How Would Global Trade Liberalization Affect Rural and Regional Incomes in Australia?

Agricultural protection in rich countries, which had depressed Australian farm incomes via its impact on AustraliaÂ’s terms of trade, has diminished over the past two decades. So too has agricultural export taxation in poor countries, which has had the opposite impact on those terms of trade. Meanwhile, however, import protection for developing country farmers has been steadily growing. To what extent are Australian farmers and rural regions still adversely affected by farm and non-farm price- and trade-distortive policies abroad? This paper draws on new estimates of the current extent of those domestic and foreign distortions first to model their net impact on AustraliaÂ’s terms of trade (using the World BankÂ’s Linkage model of the global economy), and second to model the effects of that terms of trade impact on output and real incomes in rural vs urban and other regions and households within Australia as of 2004 (using MonashÂ’s multi-regional TERM model of the Australian economy).Trade liberalisation, rural income, regional CGE modeling

How Would Global Trade Liberalization Affect Rural and Regional Incomes in Australia

Agricultural protection in rich countries, which had depressed Australian farm incomes via its impact on Australia's terms of trade, has diminished over the past two decades. So too has agricultural export taxation in poor countries, which had the opposite impact on those terms of trade. Meanwhile, however, import protection for developing country farmers has been steadily growing, and OPEC has been keeping up prices of energy raw materials. To what extent are Australian farmers and rural regions still adversely affected by farm and non-farm price-distortive policies abroad? This paper draws on new evidence on the current extent of those domestic and foreign distortions first to model their net impact on Australia's terms of trade (TOT, using the World Bank's Linkage model of the global economy), and second to model the effects of that TOT impact on rural vs urban and other regions and households within Australia as of 2004 (using Monash's multi-regional TERM model of the Australian economy). The results vindicate the continuing push by Australia's rural communities for multilateral agricultural trade liberalization.trade liberalisation, rural income, regional CGE modeling

Modelling value-added tax in the presence of multiproduction and differentiated exemptions

We develop a framework for economy-wide modelling of value-added tax systems. Our framework models a number of complexities of VAT systems as they are implemented by tax agencies. In particular, we model multiple rates, multiple exemptions, multiple degrees of refundability across commodity users, and multi-product enterprises. A detailed VAT framework is important for correct modelling of VAT within a general equilibrium model. Such a framework is also of value in correctly representing the distribution of indirect tax payments within the database of a general equilibrium model, a prerequisite of accurate welfare analysis. We use the model to analyse the effects of simplifying Vietnam’s complex VAT system. We simplify the system by moving from three tax rates to one budget-neutral rate, while also removing many discretionary exemptions.value added tax; dynamic CGE model; Vietnam; indirect tax reform