Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders

This paper summarizes our earlier research documenting the characteristic speculative dynamics of many asset markets and suggests a framework for understanding them. Our model incorporates "feedback traders," traders whose demand is based on the history of past returns rather than the expectation of future fundamentals. We use this framework to describe ways in which the characteristic return patterns might be generated, and also to address the long-standing question of whether profitable speculation stabilizes asset markets.

Speculative Dynamics

This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of a wide range of asset returns. It highlights three stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, returns tend to be negatively serially correlated over long horizons. Third, deviations of asset values from proxies for fundamental value have predictive power for returns. These patterns emerge repeatedly in our analyses of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, real estate, collectibles, and precious metals, and they appear too strong to be attributed only to small sample biases. The pervasive nature of these patterns suggests that they may be lie to inherent features of the speculative process, rather than to variation in risk factors which affect particular markets.

Radio Aurora Explorer: A Mission Overview

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140647/1/1.a32436.pd

Magnetic Sensor Calibration and Residual Dipole Characterization for Application to Nanosatellites

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/83632/1/AIAA-2010-7518-617.pd

Challenging Certification of a Class Action: A Hypothetical

This is intended to be an article for the lawyer whose client is suddenly confronted with one of these Frankenstein monster(s) posing as a class action. Our objective is to set forth the arguments and methods available to counsel in seeking to prevent a class from being certified. In order to sharpen the analysis and arguments we will use a hypothetical class action as a model. Since most of the criticism and praise of the class action device has been focused on complaints filed under section (b)(3), observations will be directed primarily at that part of Rule 23. If, in the end, this writing sounds more like a brief in support of a motion to dismiss a complaint as a class action, rather than a scholarly analysis of Rule 23, we will have accomplished our objective

An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?

macroeconomics, Aging Society