Northwest of Suez: The 1956 Crisis and the IMF

Egypt's nationalization of the Suez Canal in 1956 and the failed attempt by France, Israel, and the United Kingdom to retake it by force constituted a serious political crisis with significant economic consequences. For the United Kingdom, it engendered a financial crisis as well. That all four of the combatants sought and obtained IMF financial assistance was highly unusual for the time and had a profound effect on the development of the IMF. This case study illustrates the complexities in isolating the current account as the basis for determining a balance of payments "need" and shows that the speculative attack on sterlingóand the IMF's response to itówere remarkably similar to financial crises in the 1990s. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

On the Origins of the Fleming-Mundell Model

Forty years ago, Marcus Fleming and Robert Mundell developed independent models of macroeconomic policy in open economies. Why do we link the two, and why do we call the result the Mundell-Fleming, rather than Fleming-Mundell model? Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation

This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation. It then presents tests of the relationships between conventional broad indexes of commodity prices and consumer prices, and uses the data on individual commodities to generate the optimum weights in a commodity price index for forecasting G-7 inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices may be rejected. There is a tendency for changes in commodity prices to lead those in consumer prices, at least when the data are denominated in a broad index of major-country currencies. However, although the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the in-sample fit of regressions of an aggregate (multi-country) consumer price index, the results may not be sufficiently stable to improve post-sample forecasts. Estimated alternative commodity price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, track the behavior of the aggregate CPI reasonably well in-sample. However, the estimated indexes work only moderately well in post-sample predictions, and they do not appear to offer significant advantages over the conventional export weighted index. Perhaps the most important result is that turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.

Commodity Prices and Inflation: Evidence From Seven Large Industrial Countries

This paper examines the relationships between movements in primary commodity prices and changes in inflation in the large industrial countries. It begins by developing a two-country model in order to examine the theoretical effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on commodity and manufactures prices and on exchange rates. It is shown that if monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Non-monetary shocks generally weaken these relationships, but such disturbances may cancel out for broad indexes covering a wide range of commodities. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. The weights assigned to different commodities vary substantially across countries. Nonetheless, when the indexes are expressed in a common currency, they tend to be highly correlated over time, except when sharp movements occur in certain commodity prices. The major source of contrast across countries in the behavior of the indexes derives from exchange rate movements. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the theoretical model, with relatively few differences across countries. Three main tendencies may be cited. First, low inflation in industrial countries has tended to be associated with low levels of commodity prices, and conversely; commodity-price levels are cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Second, there has been some tendency for movements in commodity prices to precede changes in general inflation rates by a few months, although it is not clear whether this tendency is strong enough to be a reliable aid in forecasting the rate of inflation. Third, there s a strong and fairly reliable tendency for turning points in general inflation rates. Commodity prices thus appear to contribute to predictions of turning points in inflation, predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.

Chapter 11: Asian Flu: Financial Crisis in the Pacific

Tearing Down Walls: The International Monetary Fund 1990-1999: Chapter 11: Asian Flu: Financial Crisis in the Pacifi

Chapter 10: Tequila Hangover: The Mexican Peso Crisis and Its Aftermath

Tearing Down Walls: The International Monetary Fun 1990-1999: Chapter 10: Tequila Hangover: The Mexican Peso Crisis and Its Aftermat

Chapter 7: The Mexican Crisis: No Mountain Too High?

From Silent Revolution The International Monetary Fund 1979–198

A Strategic Approach to Agricultural Research Program Planning in Sub-Saharan Africa

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Downloads May 2008-July 2009: 13,

A Strategic Approach to Agricultural Research Program Planning in Sub-Saharan Africa

Recent studies have shown that agricultural research can have high payoffs in Africa, but impact depends on how well technology fits with evolving needs and capacity in the agricultural sector and the rest of the economy. Structural adjustment policies (e.g., market liberalization, currency devaluation) and political change are transforming user demands for new technology and the economic environment in which technology must perform. The challenge is how to design agricultural research as a strategic input to promote broad-based economic growth, structural transformation, and food security in the increasingly market-driven, but fragile, economies of Africa.Food Security, Food Policy, Agricultural Research, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Downloads May 2008-July 2009: 44, Q18,

Parallels in Practice: Applying Principles of Research Integrity and Ethics in Domestic Violence Fatality Review (DVFR)

Purpose Within the context of the big data society, new systems of data collection on domestic violence and abuse (DVA) have emerged. One such system is Domestic Violence Fatality Review (DVFR) which captures the various dimensions of gender, violence, and abuse required to form an evidence base for prevention. However, to date, there has been limited dialogue between practitioners and researchers about the ‘doing’ of DVFRs. Method As DVFR systems vary by jurisdiction, we conducted a case study of Domestic Homicide Reviews (DHRs) in England and Wales. Applying the Research Integrity Framework (RIF) developed by the four Women’s Aid Federations in the United Kingdom (UK), this article examines both the practice of DHR and how it is utilised as data in research. Results Informed by our situated perspectives as researchers and/or practitioners working in the field, our analysis demonstrates how undertaking DHR as a practitioner parallels collecting, accessing, and analysing data from DHRs as a researcher. Guiding principles are identified to help practitioners and researchers navigate the parallel challenges they confront and, critically, inform dialogue between practice and research. Conclusions Implications for both professional practice and research are presented. To increase transparency and confidence, we argue that more attention should be afforded to the methodological and ethical issues inherent in both the practice of DHRs, and their utilisation as a source of data in research. While DHRs have differences to DVFRs in other jurisdictions, these findings also have implications for these other systems which will also be discussed