The Reaction of Reduced-Form Coefficients to Regime Changes: The Case of Interest Rates

This study investigates whether the apparent intertemporal instability of a particular reduced-form equation (that for interest rates) can be explained by changing government policy parameters, or regimes, and otherwise stable structural parameters. We hypothesize that major fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy parameter shifts have been important sources of that instability. Direct tests imply that reduced-form coefficients move by statistically significant and economically meaningful amounts in response to policy parameter change. Allowing for this systematic parameter variation produces greater stability in the remaining parameters. Furthermore, in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts from the proposed model out perform those from the non-responsive parameter specification.

Discrimination, Lending Practices and Housing Values: Preliminary Evidence from the Houston Market

At the center of the debate on racially induced price differentials in housing is the issue of discrimination. This research studies the impact that ethnic as well as racial composition in a neighborhood exerts on value. In an attempt to extend previous efforts, aggregate data is used to study the effects of discrimination and lending bias on residential real estate in Houston, Texas. The data do not support allegations of systematic bias in the mortgage lending process.

The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates: Some Direct Estimates

This article demonstrates why the procedures used in previous studies do not permit inference about the relationship between interestrates and taxes. We present a model that leads to direct estimates of the degree to which interest rates respond to changes in tax rates. The empirical results imply that the adjustment of taxable interest rates has been large enough to render after-tax yields impervious to tax rate changes. Further, tax-exempt yields are unaffected by changes in taxrates. Thus, there is no evidence of fiscal illusion in interest rates.

The measurement and determinants of single-family house prices

We assess the conceptual and empirical features of a number of house price series for the United States. We then calculate a measure of the net upgrading of the existing stock of houses that took place during the 1950-1989 period and adjust price indexes for this net increase in quality. Judgments about the trend, volatility, and determinants of house prices are shown to depend crucially on which price series is used. The Freddie Mac upgrade adjusted house price measure rose 5.7% over the past four decades, falling 7.7% from 1950 through 1970 before rising 14.5% from 1970 through 1989. Real house prices declined in the early 1980s as a result of the increase in real after-tax interest rates and the decline in real materials costs. The recovery of house prices in the late 1980s is attributed to lower unemployment and real after-tax interest rates and particularly to demographic factors associated with the aging of baby boomers.Housing

Taxable and Tax-Exempt Interest Rates: The Role of Personal and Corporate Tax Rates

This paper investigates empirically the effects of personal and corporate taxes on taxable interest rates and on the spread between taxable and tax-exempt rates. Two main sets of results emerge. First, we establish that the effective marginal investors in the Treasury bill market are households, as opposed to tax-exempt institutions or corporations. We find no evidence of corporate tax rate effects on Treasury bill yields. The study is then extended to an examination of the tax-exempt market. The results there contradict the hypothesis that commercial bank arbitrage generally ensures that the taxable-tax-exempt interest rate spread is determined by the corporate tax rate. Our estimates decisively reject the corporate in favor of the personal income tax rate as being the relevant tax rate of the marginal investor in this market as well.

Implications of Budget Reconciliation for Commodity Programs

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Lifetime prevalence of non-melanoma and melanoma skin cancer in Australian recreational and competitive surfers

Background/Purpose Surfing is one of the most popular outdoor aquatic activities in Australia with an estimated 2.7 million recreational surfers; however, Australia has long been recognized as having the highest incidence of melanoma in the world, and it is the most common type of cancer in young Australians. The aim of this study was to investigate the lifetime prevalence of non-mela- noma [basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)] and melanoma skin cancers in Australian recreational and competitive surfers. Methods Australian surfers were invited to complete an online surveillance survey to determine the lifetime prevalence of non-melanoma and melanoma skin cancers. Results A total of 1348 surfers (56.9% recreational) participated in this study, of which 184 surfers reported a skin cancer (competitive n = 96, recreational n = 87). Of non-melanoma and melanoma cancers reported, BCC was the most common (6.8%), followed by melanoma (1.4%) and SCC (0.6%). The relative risk was higher (P \u3c 0.001) in competitive vs. recreational surfers [OR 1.74 (CI 1.28–2.31)]. There was a higher (P \u3c 0.05) number of skin cancers reported on the face (23.5%), back (16.4%) and arms (12.4%). There were significant trends (P \u3c 0.001) in reported skin cancers between competitive and recreational surfers, as well as significantly (P \u3c 0.001) more skin cancers reported in males (14.6%) than females (9.4%). Conclusion Based upon these findings, individuals who surf are advised to regularly uti- lize sun protection strategies (avoid peak ultraviolet radiation (10 am– 3 pm), rashvest, hat and sunscreen) and primary care physicians are rec- ommended to regularly screen their patients who surf

Financial Impacts of Regional Differences in Beef Cattle Operations

The sensitivity of net cash farm income to changes in selected production variables, output prices, and input costs varies significantly across representative U.S. beef cattle operations. Larger changes in profitability result from changes in productivity and output prices than from changes in input costs.Livestock Production/Industries,