Evaluation bias in effort estimation

There exists a large number of software effort estimation methods in the literature and the space of possibilities [54] is yet to be fully explored. There is little conclusive evidence about the relative performance of such methods and many studies suffer from instability in their conclusions. As a result, the effort estimation literature lacks a stable ranking of such methods.;This research aims at providing a stable ranking of a large number of methods using data sets based on COCOMO features. For this task, the COSEEKMO tool [46] was further developed into a benchmarking tool and several well-known effort estimation methods, including model trees, linear regression methods, local calibration, and several newly developed methods were used in COSEEKMO for a thorough comparison. The problem of instability was further explored and the evaluation method used was identified as the cause of instability. Therefore, the existing evaluation bias was corrected through a new evaluation approach, which was non-parametric. The Mann-Whitney U test [42] is the non-parametric test used in this study, which introduced a great amount of stability in the results. Several evaluation criteria were tested in order to analyze their possible effects on the observed stability.;The conclusions made in this study were stable across different evaluation criteria, different data sets, and different random runs. As a result, a group of four methods were selected as the best effort estimation methods among the explored 312 combinations of methods. These four methods were all based on the local calibration procedure proposed by Boehm [4]. Furthermore, these methods were simpler and more effective than many other complex methods including the Wrapper [37] and model trees [60], which are well-known methods in the literature.;Therefore, while there exists no single universal best method for effort estimation, this study suggests applying the four methods reported here to the historical data and using the best performing method among these four to estimate the effort for future projects. In addition, this study provides a path for comparing other existing or new effort estimation methods with the currently explored methods. This path involves a systematic comparison of the performance of each method against all other methods, including the methods studied in this work, through a benchmarking tool such as COSEEKMO, and using the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test

Bilateral lower extremity hyperkeratotic plaques: a case report of ichthyosis vulgaris

Here, we report a case of a middle-aged woman presenting with severe, long-standing, hyperkeratotic plaques of the lower extremities unrelieved by over-the-counter medications. Initial history and clinical findings were suggestive of an inherited ichthyosis. Ichthyoses are genetic disorders characterized by dry scaly skin and altered skin-barrier function. A diagnosis of ichthyosis vulgaris was confirmed by histopathology. Etiology, prevalence, and treatment options are discussed

The Importance of the Place of Comparative Approach in the History of Persian Folk Literature and Criticism of Arabic Poetry and Prose Texts, the Heading of Folk Literature, Master's Degree in Persian Language and Literature

1.IntroductionAfter the term "Folklore" was coined by Ambroise Morton in 1846 and the beginning of research on folk literature and culture, Studies related to this field had many developments and scientific advances. Research in the field of Persian folk culture and literature also began with the research of orientalists (see Afshari, 1388: 289).After that, even despite the increasing process of recording the components of folk culture and literature and even the establishment of the orientation of folk literature in 2013 and the specialization of studies in this field in Iran, the research conducted in this field still has obvious flaws. Stopping at the stage of registering the components of folk literature, the ambiguity in the structure and characteristics of these components, and most importantly, the weakness in the theoretical foundations are among the most important things that can be pointed out (see. Aliani et al, 2019: 10).One of the main reasons for this issue is the neglect of the Arabic sources of the early Islamic centuries as the preservers of Iranian folklore culture and literature in the era of the loss of Persian sources and neglect in the history of folklore Persian literature.. "It is an important issue that the Arabic language played an important role as the preserver of Iranian folklore literature before Islam." (Cejpek, 2014: 27 & 26). Despite this, in addition to the researches that have been done in the field of folklore culture and literature, the importance of these resources and the effective role of the comparative approach have not been paid attention to in the design of the  lessons of the folkliterature orientation. Especially since in the list of courses of this heading, there is a course called "Arabic Prose and Poetry" in which these sources are expected to be paid attention to, but these sources were not paid attention to in its design.Based on this, in this article, while explaining the reasons for the importance of these sources, the most important available Arabic sources are introduced in terms of the reflection of Iranian folk literature and its developments in the first centuries of Islam, And in order to eliminate the existend shortcomings, a heading has been designed for the course "Arabic Poetry and Prose Texts". 2.MethodologyConsidering the need to refer to Arabic sources for the historical connection of the elements and components of Iranian culture and literature before Islam with the Islamic era, this research has been done by descriptive-analytical method and by analyzing the literature history data available in the library sources. 3.DiscussionThe task of transferring Iranian culture and literature to Arabic culture and language in the first centuries of Islam has been undertaken by the translation movement. "Many sources of the past folklore of Iran have been translated into Arabic by Iranian scholars such as Ibn Moqfa, Tabari, Masoudi, Thaalebi, Hamzeh Isfahani and others and are available to us today." (Beihaghi, 1365: 41). Despite this, the heading designed for Arabic poetry and prose lesson of the heading of Persian folk literature in order to get familiar with official Arabic literature, including Arabic mystical texts, poems by Arab poets, Arabic works by Persian poets and writers, and contemporary Arabic research texts in the field of language and literature, the Qur'an, Nahj al-Balagha, and commentary texts,  Arabic proverbs, phrases and verses common in Persian texts. The general approach and a cursory look in the selection of texts and the focus of this heading on official literature texts and neglecting the importance of the comparative approach do not meet the scientific needs of students in this field. Therefore, the issue of interest in this article is that despite the many reasons for the high importance of Arabic texts in the history of Iranian folk literature, how the sources of Arabic poetry and prose texts in the heading of folk literature to explain the nature of Iranian folk culture and literature and its developments In the first centuries of Islam and attention to the importance of the comparative approach has not been organized?Reasons for the importance of the comparative approach in the history of Persian folk literatureSome of the most important intratextual and extratextual reasons for the importance of Arabic sources in the field of Iranian folk culture and literature are as follows:1.The existence of different forms of Iranian folk stories and proverbs and and anecdotes in Arabic sources: in many cases, these sources have become the oldest or only sources of Iranian folklore stories. Such as the reflection of a story about Ardeshir Babkan, in the book "nehayat-al-arab" under the name of Irajosteh and Khosrow in the persian translation of Varavini's Marzbannameh.The importance of the works of Arabic-speaking Iranian writers and poets, especially the Shaoubians, in terms of recording the components of Iranian folk literature: The Shaoubieh movement is one of the most important factors in the transfer of Iranian folk culture and literature to Arabic culture and sources. The works of this group, such as Ibn Muqafa, Mahmoud vorraq, Saleh ibn Abd al-Quddus and Bashar ibn Burd, contain a large number of poetice or prose form of components of Iranian folk literature such as Iranian proverbs and admonition in ArabicIn Arabic: “The tooth is still worn out, and the one who has it is still in pain and is leaving it.  ” (Ibn Muqaffa, 2002: 140).In Persian: " The eaten by worm (destroyed) tooth of the  should be removed " (Amini, 2009: 287).The importance of Arab collections(collections of poetries and writers works and folklore content too) in Iranian folk culture and literature: whith spread of a new style in Arabic writings is via Jahiz Basri  (under name of collection writing)  and the creation of numerous works imitating it, the reflecting ideas, admonitions and anecdotes related to folklore culture and literature in written works increased. The reflection of some common beliefs in Iranian culture in Abu hayyan Tawhidi's Al-Emta va Al-Moanesat about trees, animals and mineral stones is one of these (cf. Tawhidi, 2005: 235).The need to pay attention to the literary components in Arabic sources that have a folk origin: one of the main necessary steps in explaining the importance of Arabic written sources in the field of Iranian folk literature is to pay attention to the literary components that have a folk origin. "There has been a continuous mutual influence between written and oral literature" (wellek, 2013: 41 & 42). Fables, parables, jokes, Arabic folk poems of Iranian origin, quatrains, and beggars' stories originating from Iranian culture are among the most important of this group.5. The importance of Arabic sources in terms of recording the legendary history of Iranians and its importance in the discussion of mythological studies: the translation of Iranian history sources into Arabic, especially the "Khuday nameh", and the comparison of different characterizations of Iranian mythological champions such as Rostam in these sources with the Shahnameh and Iranian folk culture, It doubles the importance of Arabic sources in studying the history of developments in Iranian mythology.The influence of Arabic-Islamic culture on the components of Iranian folk literature: When discussing the importance of Arabic sources in the discussion of Iranian folklore literature, it is necessary to consider the effects of Arabic-Islamic culture on Iranian public culture and literature. including the influence of Arabic proverbs and admonitions and the importance of influence of Semitic and Islamic history in the discussion of comparative mythology and the spread of Arabic love stories in Iranian culture.Authors and important works: the works of Ibn Muqafa as the first collections containing Iranian proverbs and rulings after Islam, the works of Jahiz, the important work of Abu al-Faraj Isfahani called Al-Aghani, the works of Thaalibi Neishabouri, the book of Abu hayyan Tawhidi’s Al-EMtaa and Al-Mu’anasat, the works of Qazi Mohsen Tanukhi and the work of Ragheb Isfahani With the name of Mohazerat al-odaba va Mohaverat al-shoara va al-bolagha, which contain verse and prose form of proverbs and admonitions, anecdotes, stories, superstitions, Arabic stories that are influential in Iranian culture, jokes and popular opinions. these cases are the most important things is the importance of Arabic sources in reflecting folk culture and literature.Designing the heading of the Iranian folk culture and literature course in Arabic poetry and prose texts: based on the discussed topics, it is suggested to change the title of the Arabic poetry and prose texts course in the Persian folk literature heading to "Iranian folk culture and literature in Arabic prose and poetry texts" and educational topics should be organize under these main headings:"The importance and role of Nahj al-Balagha and the Holy Quran in Iranian folk culture and literature""Iranian admonitions, Arabic admonitions and understanding the importance of moral and religious admonitions and advice in Iranian culture (before and after Islam)"" Iranian proverbs in sources of Arabic proverbs, Arabic proverbs, stories of proverbs, examples of Arabic poems by Iranian poets (poetice form of proverbs and admonitions)""The importance of historical sources in the analysis and investigation of Iranian, Semitic and Islamic mythology and how to synchronize them"" Analysis and investigation of Iranian folk culture and literature in the Arabic collections""Study of Arabic love stories introduced into Persian culture and literature""The influence of folk culture and literature in the creation of the literary type of Maghameh""Jokes and comical in Arabic sources""Familiarization with the research texts of Arabic writers in the field of the connection between Iranian folk culture and literature with Arabic and Islamic culture and literature". 4.ConclusionThe current heading of the course on Arabic poetic and prose texts of the folk literature major does not fit with the goals and nature of the major. In the design of the proposed heading in this article, three effect-oriented, component-oriented and research-oriented approaches have been considered. In teaching these cases, you can pay attention to these three approaches. This means that in effect-oriented cases, the focus should be on the study of literary components that have an impact on people's culture, in component-oriented cases, emphasis should be placed on comparing and studying the course of changes in literary components, and in research-oriented cases, emphasis should be placed on the reflection of various components of Iranian folk culture in the Arabic collections. By presenting such cases, it is possible to solve part of the historical problem regarding the nature of Iranian folk culture and manners after Islam, and to direct students' minds to the importance of theoretical foundations in research in this field

Evaluation of the Safe Yield of Groundwater Production Derived from Wind Energy

Groundwater aquifers are key sources of water in arid and semiarid regions. Fossil fuels are commonly used to power water-well pumps. The adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use have led to the search for alternative clean energy sources to extract groundwater. A key factor in assessing the viability of wind energy use in groundwater extraction is the safe yield of groundwater production that can be derived by using windmills to power water wells. This paper presents and tests simulation and optimization models developed to estimate the safe yield of groundwater production derivable from the joint application of wind energy to water extraction and water storage for irrigation

Preparation and Investigation of Poly (N-isopropylacrylamide-acrylamide) Membranes in Temperature Responsive Drug Delivery

Objective(s)Physiological changes in the body may be utilized as potential triggers for controlled drug delivery. Based on these mechanisms, stimulus–responsive drug delivery has been developed.Materials and MethodsIn this study, a kind of poly (N-isopropylacrylamide-acrylamide) membrane was prepared by radical copolymerization. Changes in swelling ratios and diameters of the membrane were investigated in terms of temperature. On-off regulation of drug permeation through the membrane was then studied at temperatures below and above the phase transition temperature of the membrane. Two drugs, vitamin B12 and acetaminophen were chosen as models of high and low molecular weights here, respectively. ResultsIt was indicated that at temperatures below the phase transition temperature of the membrane, copolymer was in a swollen state. Above the phase transition temperature, water was partially expelled from the functional groups of the copolymer. Permeation of high molecular weight drug models such as vitamin B12 was shown to be much more distinct at temperatures below the phase transition temperature when the copolymer was in a swollen state. At higher temperatures when the copolymer was shrunken, drug permeation through the membrane was substantially decreased. However for acetaminophen, such a big change in drug permeation around the phase transition temperature of the membrane was not observed. ConclusionAccording to the pore mechanism of drug transport through hydrogels, permeability of solutes decreased with increasing molecular size. As a result, the relative permeability, around the phase transition temperature of the copolymer, was higher for solutes of high molecular weight

Third-Generation Medium Cross-Linked Polyethylene Demonstrates Very Low Wear in Total Hip Arthroplasty.

Background: Cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) liners have shown lower wear rates than conventional polyethylene liners in total hip arthroplasty. The primary aim of our study was to report our most recent analysis of wear rates and clinical outcomes of a third-generation XLPE liner. Secondary aims were to investigate the rate of adverse events related to mechanical failure or oxidation of this liner. Methods: A series of 266 total hip arthroplasties using a specific XLPE liner were retrospectively reviewed. Radiographs were examined to determine linear and volumetric wear rates and presence of osteolysis. Clinical outcomes, revision rates, mechanical failures, and risk factors for accelerated polyethylene wear were additionally investigated. Results: The mean age at the time of surgery was 65.8 years and the mean follow-up was 5.5 years. The mean linear wear rate was 0.003 mm/year and the mean volumetric wear rate was 0.42 mm Conclusion: Wear rates for this third-generation XLPE liner were low at mid-term follow-up, and no adverse sequelae of oxidation or deleterious mechanical properties were observed. This remained true regardless of femoral head size and material or patient age and body mass index. Further analysis will be necessary to ensure continued wear resistance, oxidative stability, and mechanical strength at long-term follow-up

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens