Consequences of global imbalance corrections for Hungary

There are numerous signs of the emergence of global imbalances in world economy. This is reflected by the fact that of the developed countries the USA is producing a substantial, historically unprecedented magnitude of current account deficit vis-a-vis the current account surplus of a well-defined group of mainly emerging countries and of some developed countries. This is probably not an optimal situation, and in the course of solving this problem there is the question of what impacts the Hungarian economy may be exposed to and what steps Hungarian monetary policy can take. In examining the various scenarios of global adjustment, it is important to distinguish between an adjustment originating in Asia or in the USA. The former stimulates the Hungarian economy, while the latter temporarily hinders the Hungarian economy. A correction triggered by the markets has stronger output consequences for the Hungarian economy, than that of a restrictive fiscal policy in the USA. Hungarian monetary policy has an effect on whether output or inflation will become more volatile. Hungarian monetary policy tracking the ECB involves higher fluctuations in inflation and lower changes in GDP, whereas the situation is just the opposite in case of independent policies. If the exchange rate of the forint weakens due to a decline in global risk appetite, this would initially result in growing inflation, although over the longer term even lower GDP and inflation cannot be ruled out either.global imbalance, current account adjustment, forcasting, simulation.

The bilinear-biquadratic model on the complete graph

We study the spin-1 bilinear-biquadratic model on the complete graph of N sites, i.e., when each spin is interacting with every other spin with the same strength. Because of its complete permutation invariance, this Hamiltonian can be rewritten as the linear combination of the quadratic Casimir operators of su(3) and su(2). Using group representation theory, we explicitly diagonalize the Hamiltonian and map out the ground-state phase diagram of the model. Furthermore, the complete energy spectrum, with degeneracies, is obtained analytically for any number of sites

Forecasting Inflation - A Case Study on the Czech, Hungarian, Polish, Slovakian and Slovenian Central Banks

The paper examines the inflation forecasting practice and the related institutional framework at the central banks of five Central European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia). The first part of the paper presents the general aspects of the comparative analysis, which primarily follow the requirements of inflation targeting monetary regimes. The second part consists of individual country case studies, which give detailed description of the institutional framework and forecasting practice at the five central banks considered.

An estimated DSGE model of the Hungarian economy

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) small-open-economy model for the Hungarian economy. The model features different types of frictions, real and nominal rigidities which are necessary to replicate the empirical persistence of Hungarian data. Bayesian methods are applied, and the structural break due to changing monetary regime over the studied period is explicitly taken into account in the estimation procedure. A real-time adaptive learning mechanism describes agents’ perception on underlying inflation. This creates an additional inertia in inflation. We describe the properties of the estimated model by impulse-response analysis, variance decomposition and the analysis of identified structural shocks. Our results are compared with that of estimated euro-area DSGE models, and estimated non-DSGE models of the Hungarian economy. As a robustness check, a model without real time adaptive learning is also estimated and it’s results are also compared to those of the original model.New Keynesian models, DSGE models, small open economy, Bayesian econometrics.

A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model for the Hungarian labour market

This paper presents a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model with particular attention to the Hungarian labour market. The identification of structural shocks is based on sign restrictions. We identify four structural shocks: a labour supply, an aggregate supply, an aggregate demand and a monetary policy shock. It is worth emphasising that a negative labour supply shock cannot be distinguished from minimum wage hikes in this model. Impulse response analysis shows that after an aggregate supply shock, real wages react more persistently and to a greater extent than prices. In addition, aggregate supply and monetary policy shocks induce relatively strong reactions on the real side of the economy. Unlike in estimated DSGE models for Hungary, we found a positive response of employment with respect to monetary policy shock. All impulse responses are estimated to be less persistent than in the SVAR model estimated using eurozone data pointing to a more flexible Hungarian economy. Our impulse responses are closer to the DSGE model of Jakab and Világi (2008) and Baksa, Benk and Jakab (2009) than to the model of Jakab and Kónya (2009) which describes a relatively rigid labour market. Historical decomposition exercises revealed the presence of positive labour supply shocks between 2003 and 2006. The other important factor in explaining employment was aggregate supply shock. Neither monetary nor aggregate demand shocks contributed significantly to employment fluctuations.Bayesian, VAR, employment, inflation, wage, labour economics

Establishing an Internet Based Paediatric Cancer Registration and Communication System for the Hungarian Paediatric Oncology Network

Cancer registration has developed in Europe over the last 50 years, and in the last decade intensive joint activities between the European Cancer Registries, in response to the need of pan-European harmonization of registration practices, have taken place. The Hungarian Paediatric Cancer Registry has been functioning as the database of the Hungarian Paediatric Oncology Network since 1971, aiming to follow the incidence and the treatment efficacy of malignant diseases.The goals of this globally unique open source information system are the following: 1) to raise the quality of the registration system to the European level by developing an Internet-based registration and communication system, modernizing the database, establishing automatic statistical analyses and adding an Internet website, 2) to support clinical epidemiological studies that we conduct with international collaborators on detailed analyses of the characteristics of patients and their diseases, evaluation of new diagnostic and therapeutic methods, prevention programs, and long-term quality of life and side effects.The benefits of the development of the Internet-based registration and communication system are as follows: a) introduction of an Internet-based case reporting system, b) modernization of the registry database according to international recommendations, c) automatic statistical summaries, encrypted mail systems, document repository, d) application of data security and privacy standards, e) establishment of a website and compilation of educational materials.The overall objective of this scientific project is to contribute towards the improvement of cancer prevention and cancer care for the benefit of the public in general and of cancer patients in particular

Competing valence bond and symmetry breaking Mott states of spin-3/2 fermions on a honeycomb lattice

We investigate magnetic properties of strongly interacting four component spin-3/2 ultracold fermionic atoms in the Mott insulator limit with one particle per site in an optical lattice with honeycomb symmetry. In this limit, atomic tunneling is virtual, and only the atomic spins can exchange. We find a competition between symmetry breaking and liquid like disordered phases. Particularly interesting are valence bond states with bond centered magnetizations, situated between the ferromagnetic and conventional valence bond phases. In the framework of a mean-field theory, we calculate the phase diagram and identify an experimentally relevant parameter region where a homogeneous SU(4) symmetric Affleck-Kennedy-Lieb-Tasaki-like valence bond state is present

Hungary in the NIGEM model

This paper presents a nationwide economy model for Hungary used by the National Bank of Hungary for analyzing the effects of world shocks, for quarterly forecasting exercises and other policy simulations. The study has two main goals: Firstly, we present the model for the Hungarian economy, developed in collaboration between the National Bank of Hungary and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. The model is a one-sector aggregate economy model with a theoretically consistent supply side. A particular role is given to foreign direct investments in explaining the sources of growth both in the production process and foreign trade. Secondly, there is a brief discussion of the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model (NIGEM), to which the Hungarian model is linked. In this setup, we are also able to analyze the effect of world shocks on the domestic economy. For testing model properties, we present policy simulations for various shocks. A case study on the effect of the Russian crisis on Hungary is also discussed for the purpose of testing parameter adequacy.

Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary

This paper investigates the different sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Hungary. We consider the effect of tradable pricing behavior and nominal rigidities in tradable real-exchange rate movements, and investigate the importance of relative productivity changes between the tradable and nontradable sector in relative price (nontradable/tradable) adjustments. We formulate a policy reaction function to separate the effect of tradable pricing shocks from policy shocks. The framework we use is a two sector open economy real exchange rate model. Its contemporaneous structure is used for the identification of structural shocks. Since the effect of policy shocks on tradable real exchange rate was not significant, our results suggest that nominal rigidities did not play an important role during the period under consideration. The evolution of nontradable prices and relative (nontradable/tradable) prices were well explained by nontradable output shocks. Thus, the Balassa-Samuelson-effect seems to have been at work in Hungary during the first eight years of transition.