Has the G7 business cycle become more synchronized ?

This paper adopts Friedman’s Plucking Markov Switching Model to decompose G7 real GDPs into common permanent components, common transitory components, infrequent Markov Switching negative shock and domestic idiosyncratic components. The findings show that the common components explain a 53.1% average volatility of G7 GDPs from 1960 to 2002. Despite the moderated volatility of G7 economies, the G7 business cycle (except Japan) has become more synchronized in its fluctuations. In addition, from the dynamic factor model with Markov switching, there appears to have been a common permanent synchronized fluctuation in the Euro-zone countries after 1984. The probability that the common transitory component is contracting, accords quite well with U.S recessionary dates.G7, GDP, business cycle, Friedman’s Plucking Markov Switching Model, permanent, transitory

Oil and the G7 business cycle : Friedman's Plucking Markov Switching Approach

To analyze whether oil price can account for the business cycle asymmetries in the G7, this paper adopts the Friedman’s Plucking Markov Switching Model to decompose G7 real GDPs into common permanent components, common transitory components, infrequent Markov Switching negative shock and domestic idiosyncratic components. The findings show that Hamilton’s 3 year net oil price increases account for 1973-75, 1980, partially 1990-1991 recessions and LNR oil price increases account for 1973-75, 1980, partially 1960, partially 1970, partially 1990-1991 recessions. These results indicate that oil price shocks have not been a principal determinant of common recessions in the G7 except two major OPEC oil price increases in 1973-1974, 1979-1980oil, OPEC, G7, GDP, business cycle, Friedman’s Plucking Markov Switching, permanent, transitory

Transportation Construction Work-Zone Safety Impact on Time-Related Incentive Contracting Projects

Work-zone safety on highway projects continues to be a national concern, and project safety performance is one of the indicators of project success. Many contractors and State Transportation Agencies believe that expedited construction time under incentive contracting contributes to reducing the safety risk of road users traveling through work zones. However, the truth of this belief has never been measured or supported by any statistical evidence. Therefore, this research investigates the statistical relationship between time-related incentive road construction projects and frequency of vehicle crashes in California to understand the impact of time-related incentive provisions on project safety performance. The research team collected incentive and non-incentive project data from the California Department of Transportation. Additionally, vehicle crash data was collected from the California Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the locations of construction projects and crashes at the project locations were then pinpointed on GIS centerline layers. The research team performed statistical analyses to test the relationship between the frequency and characteristics of crashes at incentive project sites and ones at non-incentive project sites before, during, and after construction. Finally, the analysis results for both time-related incentive projects and non-incentive projects were summarized to provide project planners and managers with a better understanding of the impact of time-related incentive contracting on project safety performance

Analyzing the Potential of Hybrid and Electric Off-Road Equipment in Reducing Carbon Emissions from Construction Industries

This report quantifies the likely impact recent improvements in emissions technology in the heavy construction equipment fleet will have on national and state-level carbon emissions from construction industries. Specific technologies examined in this report include hybrid and electric-powered off-road equipment. Innovation in the equipment manufacturing industry, and adoption of innovative technology by construction firms, is driven by a wide range of factors, some of which can be influenced by public policy. Therefore, this paper describes policies available to public decision makers at the local, state and national levels that impact equipment use and development decisions, including those that encourage the use of green equipment in government procurement, local level job site emissions regulations, and state and nationally mandated emissions standards, fuel taxes, and direct research subsidies

Dual Polar Graphs, a nil-DAHA of Rank One, and Non-Symmetric Dual q-Krawtchouk Polynomials

Let $\Gamma$ be a dual polar graph with diameter $D \geqslant 3$, having as vertices the maximal isotropic subspaces of a finite-dimensional vector space over the finite field $\mathbb{F}_q$ equipped with a non-degenerate form (alternating, quadratic, or Hermitian) with Witt index $D$. From a pair of a vertex $x$ of $\Gamma$ and a maximal clique $C$ containing $x$, we construct a $2D$-dimensional irreducible module for a nil-DAHA of type $(C^{\vee}_1, C_1)$, and establish its connection to the generalized Terwilliger algebra with respect to $x$, $C$. Using this module, we then define the non-symmetric dual $q$-Krawtchouk polynomials and derive their recurrence and orthogonality relations from the combinatorial points of view. We note that our results do not depend essentially on the particular choice of the pair $x$, $C$, and that all the formulas are described in terms of $q$, $D$, and one other scalar which we assign to $\Gamma$ based on the type of the form.Comment: an extended abstract of this work appeared in proceedings for FPSAC 201

Improving Transportation Construction Project Performance: Development of a Model to Support the Decision-Making Process for Incentive/Disincentive Construction Projects, MTI Report 09-07

This research presents a project time and cost performance simulation model to assist project planners and managers by providing a complete picture during the Incentive/Disincentive (I/D) contracting decision-making process of possible performance outcomes with probabilities based on historical data. This study was performed by collecting transportation construction project data. The collected project data from the Florida Department of Transportation were evaluated using time and cost performance indices and then statistical data analysis was performed to identify important factors that influence construction project time performance. Using Monte Carlo simulation procedures, this study demonstrated a methodology for developing an I/D project time and cost performance prediction model. User-friendly visual interfaces were developed to perform the simulation and report results using Visual Basic Application programming. The developed model was validated using additional cases of transportation construction projects. Based on statistical analysis, this research found that several project factors influence I/D contracting performance. The important factors that had significant impacts on project performance were the effects of contract type, project type, district, project size, project length, maximum incentive amount, and daily I/D amount. In conclusion, the developed model applied to I/D contracting projects will be a useful tool to assist the project planners and managers during the decision-making process and will promote the efficient use of I/D contracting, which will benefit the traveling public by saving their travel time from construction delays. With additional project data, the developed model can be updated easily and the more data used for the model, the better the accuracy of prediction that can be expected

Systematic Procedures to Determine Incentive / Disincentive Dollar Amounts for Highway Transportation Construction Projects, Research Report 11-22

The Federal Highway Administration has encouraged state transportation agencies to implement Incentive/Disincentive (I/D) contracting provisions for early project completion. Although general guidelines to determine the I/D dollar amount for a project are available, there is no systematic and practical tool in use to determine optimum I/D dollar amounts for I/D projects considering road user cost, agency cost, contractor’s acceleration cost, and contractor’s cost savings. Therefore, systematic procedures and models to assist project planners and engineers in determining an appropriate I/D dollar amount are essential to optimizing the use of I/D contracting techniques. This research performed a literature review related to the determination of daily I/D dollar amounts. Caltrans I/D project data were then collected and evaluated. Project performance data were analyzed with regard to project outcomes in two key areas: project time and project cost. Statistical analyses were performed to identify the impact of I/D dollar amount on project time and cost performance. Using Construction Analysis for Pavement Rehabilitation Strategies (CA4PRS) software, Caltrans I/D projects were analyzed to introduce three different levels of CA4PRS implementations for the I/D dollar amounts calculation. Based on the results of the I/D project case studies, the systematic procedures to determine appropriate I/D dollar amounts were developed using the CA4PRS schedule-traffic-cost integration process for the new I-5 rehabilitation project in LA. The proposed procedures were applied to a typical highway pavement rehabilitation project using HMA (hot mix asphalt) materials. Further research is needed to apply the proposed model to other types of highway projects, with adjustment for the type of project