The demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. What population ageing [really] means

This paper outlines the key demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. It ranges broadly across birth rates, life expectancy and migration to show how this converging demography will result in a regionally-disparate future. It identifies a migration-driven bite in New Zealand’s age structure across the young adult ages that is pronounced in non-urban areas, and argues that while rural regions have long lost young adults and sun-belt regions gained older, what differs is that this phenomenon is now occurring alongside population ageing, rendering such age structures no longer conducive to growth. The converging trends will not only make responding to baby boomer retirement more difficult but will increase competition for workers and push up labour and consumption costs. With the exception of larger urban areas and some retirement zones, it shows that sub national growth in much of New Zealand has already ended and that this scenario will continue to unfold until zero growth or population decline embraces all but the major urban areas. This is despite a national growth rate which is currently near equal the annual global growth rate. The paper posits that it is time to re-evaluate the question ‘when does population growth ‘end’?

Māori and the [potential] demographic dividend

This paper outlines a recently articulated concept in the demographic literature known as the ‘demographic dividend’, and connects it with key features of Māori and non- Māori demography. The dividend arises – or has the potential to arise - as each population passes through a particular point in its demographic transition. During these years, the maximum proportion of the population moves into the key working and income-earning age groups, and the minimum (comprised of youth and the elderly) is notionally dependent. With proactive and timely investment in the youthful base of the population, there is potential to convert the demographic dividend into two economic windfalls, the first arising as fertility decline causes youthful dependency to fall and the last large waves of young adults flood into the working age population, the second as the latter age and move on into the higher income earning age groups. However the window of opportunity to invest in the first dividend is fleeting, while failure to invest in that stage seriously compromises the second. This paper shows that for the Māori population, despite its relative youth, the first opportunity is already coming to an end and with it the potential gains of the second. But it also argues that there is a third window of opportunity which holds particular promise for Māori. This period will also be fleeting, but is arising in both absolute and relative terms as the relatively youthful Māori population co-exists alongside its structurally older counterpart, and together (with other New Zealanders) comprise an ‘economic dividend system’ that produces the potential for a ‘collateral dividend’

Western Bay of Plenty District: Demographic Profile 1986 - 2031

This report outlines the demographic changes that have occurred in Western Bay of Plenty District, as well as what trends are expected in the future

Marlborough, Nelson and Tasman Regions–A Socio-Demographic Profile 1986-2061

A Socio-Demographic Profile for Marlborough, Nelson and Tasman Regions

Procreate and cherish: A note on Australia’s abrupt shift to Pro-Natalism

After a long history of arguing that Australian governments do not intervene in the bedrooms of the nation, in 2004 the Howard Government did exactly that. Under the enthusiastic choreographing of then Treasurer Peter Costello, it implemented an explicit and indirect fertility policy in the form of a maternity payment, commonly known as the ‘Baby Bonus’. Rising fertility in Australia since that time has been widely claimed as evidence of the policy’s success. Hailed as a mini ‘baby boom’, Costello was moved to describe the policy as a shift from ‘population or perish’ to ‘procreate and cherish’. Despite arguing against it while in Opposition, the policy has been continued with only a few changes by the incumbent Rudd Government, seemingly on the grounds that it may indeed be responsible for the recent ‘nudging up’ of birth rates. This paper traces the policy shift and concludes with a brief analysis of Australian trends across the period of the Baby Bonus (2004-2008), showing that one quarter of the increase in numbers is due to cohort size, but noting that fertility has also risen in many developed countries across the same period and thus trends in Australia may just be part of a broader trend – and/or in part an artifact of the index used to measure fertility. It also draws attention to the collateral effect of an increased dependency ratio, with the mini ‘boom’ reaching school age at the very moment the post war baby boomers reach retirement age – as forewarned by Costello in 2002 when initially rejecting the idea of a Baby Bonus

Matamata Piako District: Socio-Demographic Profile 1986-2031

Matamata-Piako District has a larger proportion of those of European/New Zealand/Other ethnicity than either the Waikato Region or Total New Zealand, and a smaller proportion of both Maori and Pacific Island than the Waikato. Matamata-Piako also has substantially fewer people of Asian origin. In all cases, the number in each ethnic group has grown except for European/NZ/other. This group saw a small decline in its number in the 1996-2006 period, while Maori grew by 8 per cent, accounting for approximately 34 per cent of Matamata-Piako District’s growth, compared with 16 per cent of the Waikato’s

Matamata Piako District: Demographic Profile 1986 - 2031

This report outlines the demographic changes that have occurred in Matamata -Piako District, as well as what trends are expected in the future

Waitomo District: Demographic profile 1986-2031

This report outlines the demographic changes that have occurred in Waitomo Region, as well as what trends are expected in the future

Bay of Plenty Region and its Territorial Authorities: Demographic Profile 1986 - 2031

This report outlines the demographic changes that have occurred in Bay of Plenty Region, as well as what trends are expected in the future

Greater Wellington-Socio-Demographic profile 1986-2031.

A socio-demographic profile prepared for Greater Wellington regional council predicts