How Specialized is “too” Specialized? Outmigration and Industry Diversification in Nonmetropolitan Counties across America

Outmigration and industrial composition have separately been the focal points of a significant amount of research related to nonmetropolitan counties; however, few (if any) studies have explicitly looked at the relationship between the two topics. The primary objective of this research is to identify what industry specialization level is “too” specialized with regards to outmigration – that is, to determine the level where specialization begins to have a damaging effect on population change. County-level data from a variety of sources is used to explore the impact of both earnings-based and employment-based definitions of specialization on net migration in nonmetropolitan counties from 2000 – 2009. Two distinct techniques (ordinary least squares and average treatment effects) are then used to assess both the impact and causality of being “too specialized.” The results suggest that a variety of specialization thresholds exist across various industries, including some surprising positive influences of industry composition on migration rates.Outmigration, Nonmetropolitan, Industrial Specialization, Industrial Diversification, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Social Influences and Intentions to Smoke in Adolescent Smokers: A Mediation Model

Research on the Theory of Planned Behavior has previously demonstrated that, as measures of subjective norms, descriptive norms and normative beliefs predict intentions to engage in behaviors such as smoking. Descriptive norms measuring the prevalence of parent and peer smoking have been investigated as predictors of intentions among adolescent smokers. Normative beliefs representing parent and peer attitudes toward smoking have also been shown to predict adolescents\u27 plans to smoke. Within a sample of 356 adolescent smokers, the present study attempted to model the relationships between these measures of social influence and intentions using Structural Equation Modeling. Three emotional and cognitive variables- instrumental value, rebelliousness, and negative affect- were hypothesized to mediate the effects of descriptive norms and normative beliefs on intentions. Results indicated that the proposed model did not successfully account for relationships among included constructs. Parent attitudes, parent smoking, and peer smoking did not substantially predict variance in intentions to smoke, and the small relationship between perceived peer attitudes and intentions was only mediated by rebelliousness. Variance in intentions to smoke was, however, accounted for by rebelliousness, instrumental value, and negative affect. Based on these findings, future research may wish to determine if social influences predict intentions as a function of age or smoking status. Additionally, interventions to reduce rebelliousness, instrumental value, and negative affect should be developed and evaluated among adolescent smokers

How the Taliban are losing the peace in Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s Taliban are back in power. How did they get there? How can their discriminatory policies be explained? And what can be done about it? The article looks back at the failure of international engagement in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021 and the dynamics that enabled the Taliban to reemerge. Having gained control of the country again in August 2021, the article unpacks the way they govern and control populations, how decisions are made within the divided movement, and how its highly oppressive policies have developed. The article concludes by looking at the Taliban’s approach toward the international community and the resulting limited pathways for constructive engagement