The Path to Prosperity: A Political Model of Demographic Change

This paper presents a formal model that characterizes the political mechanisms of demographic change, establishing a critical link in economic development. We demonstrate that fertility decisions are determined by three fundamental political variables: political stability, political capacity and political freedom. Modeling strategic multi-objective policy setting by the government, we derive a set of equilibrium conditions that enable poor nations to escape a poverty trap and to successfully develop. Empirical tests for a sample of 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 provide strong support for the propositions of the formal model. In particular, we show that political stability, political capacity and political freedom all lead to reductions in birth rates. We conclude that politics can be either a stimulant or barrier to economic development.

Extensions of Power Transition: Applications to Political Economy

This is a paper about theory in political economy terms and political economy in theoretical terms. It unifies power transition theory and applies it to the central questions that now confront political economists. Will trade wars emerge as the security challenge declines? What are the economic effects of integration, trade and growth? How will economic patterns influence international power relationships? This paper offers a preliminary bridge whereon practitioners and theorist may meet to assess the challenges that lie at the intersection between politics and economics. The economic collapse and political dissolution of the Soviet Union left policymakers and scholars searching for new fundamentals about the nature of the international system. During the Cold War era the supreme threat to international peace and security overshadowed economic concerns. The nature of that threat was a powerful mobilizing tool for government, business, and society. The loss of the immediate security threat has forced policymakers to search for explanations which fit the new international circumstances without violating old, cherished and proven concepts. In the last 10 years the foreign policy community has gone through a difficult and wrenching exercise. The sense of uncertainty about the future of the new world stems not just from the radical changes it has undergone, but equally from the realization that the new environment requires the same level understanding of the politics of security and the politics of economics. This paper is designed to accomplish two goals. First, it offers the reader a composite picture of power transition theory, integrating the various extensions and amplifications into a coherent whole. It brings together that new research and weaves it into the rich text of the underlying theory. By providing a systematic outline of the hierarchical relationship among power and satisfaction we offers a foundation for exploring conflictual and economic interactions in world politics

From War to Integration: Generalizing the Dynamic of Power Transitions

Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. In addition, long term assessments of Pax Britannica, the Cold War, and China’s potential challenge to the United States in this century are used to illustrate the precision of these findings. The fundamental implication is that structural conditions provide the pre-conditions for conflict and cooperation, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace.

The Path to Prosperity: A Political Model of Demographic Change

This paper presents a formal model that characterizes the political mechanisms of demographic change, establishing a critical link in economic development. We demonstrate that fertility decisions are determined by three fundamental political variables: political stability, political capacity and political freedom. Modeling strategic multi-objective policy setting by the government, we derive a set of equilibrium conditions that enable poor nations to escape a poverty trap and to successfully develop. Empirical tests for a sample of 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 provide strong support for the propositions of the formal model. In particular, we show that political stability, political capacity and political freedom all lead to reductions in birth rates. We conclude that politics can be either a stimulant or barrier to economic development

India: The Emerging Global Power

Using China as a benchmark, we assess the prospects and challenges facing India’s rise to global power status. The overall population size, growth and cohort composition favors rapid economic growth. India’s prospects are constrained by the failure to integrate women into the work force and the persistent religiously driven division. Consistent with China’s experience, increasing FDI and economic openness improves economic growth prospects; as would further moves towards a postmaterialist values. Of serious concern for both China and India are environmental challenges. The most prosperous regions will be seriously affected as forced migrations from neighboring even more affected societies increase. Barring unexpected events, India will likely reach parity with the US and China by 2050 and emerge as the dominant global power at the end of this Century

Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University (NDU). The Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at NDU has been testing the Senturion capability since 2002, and has begun to support the application of this new technology in DOD. In this paper, we begin by describing the methodology underlying the software, and then provide an overview of three case studies that used the software: a predictive analysis of the stabilization and reconstruction phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the run-up to the Iraqi elections in January 2005, and the leadership transition in Palestine following the death of Yasser Arafat. Each of these projects tested the application of the software’s modeling technology to unfolding events. Each analysis was performed and briefed to senior government decision makers well in advance of events; the forecasts from each project tracked well with reality, often providing counter intuitive results. The approach provides policymakers and analysts with a tool for anticipating the outcome of complex political events that can also provide a detailed explanation of why events may not unfold as expected with traditional means of analysis

A Bounded Rationality Analysis of the Cyprus Problem

The time frame for a final decision on the Cyprus problem is narrowing very rapidly. The latest peace plan proposed by the U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, known as the Annan Plan, to solve the problem between the Greek Cypriot (G/Cs) and Turkish Cypriot (T/Cs) communities underwent the last refinements in February 2003 to bridge the gap between the two sides. Yet, despite intense domestic (especially in the Turkish north) and international pressures on the two sides to sign the agreement the Turkish Cypriot leadership rejected the proposal as being insufficient in meeting their demands. Despite the apparent low in negotiations between the two sides, there is still an opportunity to revive the Annan Plan as the basis for negotiated settlement before Cyprus joins the European Union (EU) in 2004. The U.S., the E.U., and the U.N. have all given signals that they are willing to tackle the problem before Cyprus joins the EU in 2004. Given the gravity of the present situation, we provide an expected utility analysis of the problem in an attempt to determine areas of mutual cooperation between the two sides that could resolve the apparent deadlock

Deterrence and the Arms Race: The Impotence of Power

So much has been done in the name of nuclear deterrence, so much destructive power built by ourselves and the Russians that it may seem rather late in the day, not to say absurd, to wonder whether or not mutual deterrence really occurs and ask what evidence can be adduced to prove it. Yet such a question may be essential to an understanding of international nuclear politics. The problems thus posed are difficult, however, and cannot be solved by direct means. What one needs to do is to establish empirically whether the conditions necessary for deterrence to be taking place are present. A brief review of the reasons why this should be so ought to, on the other hand, give us some clues as to alternate paths we would need to take in seeking our answers

Low-Temperature Pyrolysis of Municipal Solid Waste Components and Refuse-Derived Fuel—Process Efficiency and Fuel Properties of Carbonized Solid Fuel

New technologies to valorize refuse-derived fuels (RDFs) will be required in the near future due to emerging trends of (1) the cement industry’s demands for high-quality alternative fuels and (2) the decreasing calorific value of the fuels derived from municipal solid waste (MSW) and currently used in cement/incineration plants. Low-temperature pyrolysis can increase the calorific value of processed material, leading to the production of value-added carbonized solid fuel (CSF). This dataset summarizes the key properties of MSW-derived CSF. Pyrolysis experiments were completed using eight types of organic waste and their two RDF mixtures. Organic waste represented common morphological groups of MSW, i.e., cartons, fabrics, kitchen waste, paper, plastic, rubber, PAP/AL/PE composite packaging (multi-material packaging also known as Tetra Pak cartons), and wood. The pyrolysis was conducted at temperatures ranging from 300 to 500 °C (20 °C intervals), with a retention (process) time of 20 to 60 min (20 min intervals). The mass yield, energy densification ratio, and energy yield were determined to characterize the pyrolysis process efficiency. The raw materials and produced CSF were tested with proximate analyses (moisture content, organic matter content, ash content, and combustible part content) and with ultimate analyses (elemental composition C, H, N, S) and high heating value (HHV). Additionally, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analyses (TGA) of the pyrolysis process were performed. The dataset documents the changes in fuel properties of RDF resulting from low-temperature pyrolysis as a function of the pyrolysis conditions and feedstock type. The greatest HHV improvements were observed for fabrics (up to 65%), PAP/AL/PE composite packaging (up to 56%), and wood (up to 46%)