Non-random correlation of species dynamics in tropical tree communities

International audienceThe importance of environmental stochasticity for tropical tree dynamics has been recently stressed by several studies. This has spurred the development of a 'time-averaged neutral model' of community dynamics by Kalyuzhny and colleagues that extends the neutral model by incorporating environmental stochasticity. We here show that this framework can be used to assess the presence of non-random correlations between species dynamics. Indeed, the time-averaged neutral model makes the simplifying assumption that species responses to environmental variation are uncorrelated. We therefore propose to use this model as a null hypothesis against which observed community dynamics can be compared. This study makes five contributions. First, we describe a novel time-averaged neutral model of community dynamics that is close to, but more flexible than the one previously proposed by Kalyuzhny and colleagues. Second, we develop an inference method based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and demonstrate the identifiability of the model parameters from community time series data. Third, we develop a test of the significance of environmental stochasticity, and a method to quantify its contribution to population variance. Fourth, we develop a test of non-random correlation between species dynamics. Fifth, we apply these developments to three datasets of tropical tree dynamics. We evidence both a strong contribution of environmental stochasticity to population variance in the three datasets, and a non-random correlation of species dynamics in one of them. We finally discuss the implications of these results for the modelling of tropical tree community dynamics

Predicting Shannon’s information for genes in finite populations: new uses for old equations

This study provides predictive equations for Shannon’s information in a finite population, which are intuitive and simple enough to see wide scale use in molecular ecology and population genetics. A comprehensive profile of genetic diversity contains three complementary components: numbers of allelic types, Shannon’s information and heterozygosity. Currently heterozygosity has greater resources than Shannon’s information, such as more predictive models and integration into more mainstream genetics software. However, Shannon’s information has several advantages over heterozygosity as a measure of genetic diversity, so it is important to develop Shannon’s information as a new tool for molecular ecology. Past efforts at making forecasts for Shannon’s information in specific molecular ecology scenarios mostly dealt with expectations for Shannon’s information at genetic equilibrium, but dynamic forecasts are also vital. In particular, we must be able to predict loss of genetic diversity when dealing with finite populations, because they risk losing genetic variability, which can have an adverse effect on their survival. We present equations for predicting loss of genetic diversity measured by Shannon’s information. We also provide statistical justification for these models by assessing their fit to data derived from simulations and managed, replicated laboratory populations. The predictive models will enhance the usefulness of Shannon’s information as a measure of genetic diversity; they will also be useful in pest control and conservation

Predicting stochastic community dynamics in grasslands under the assumption of competitive symmetry

International audienceCommunity dynamics is influenced by multiple ecological processes such as environmental spatiotemporal variation, competition between individuals and demographic stochasticity. Quantifying the respective influence of these various processes and making predictions on community dynamics require the use of a dynamical framework encompassing these various components. We here demonstrate how to adapt the framework of stochastic community dynamics to the peculiarities of herbaceous communities, by using a short temporal resolution adapted to the time scale of competition between herbaceous plants, and by taking into account the seasonal drops in plant aerial biomass following winter, harvesting or consumption by herbivores. We develop a hybrid inference method for this novel modelling framework that both uses numerical simulations and likelihood computations. Applying this methodology to empirical data from the Jena biodiversity experiment, we find that environmental stochasticity has a larger effect on community dynamics than demographic stochasticity, and that both effects are generally smaller than observation errors at the plot scale. We further evidence that plant intrinsic growth rates and carrying capacities are moderately predictable from plant vegetative height, specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content. We do not find any trade-off between demographical components, since species with larger intrinsic growth rates tend to also have lower demographic and environmental variances. Finally, we find that our model is able to make relatively good predictions of multi-specific community dynamics based on the assumption of competitive symmetr

Int J Environ Res Public Health

Many countries have introduced health impact assessment (HIA) at the national, regional, or local levels. In France and in Québec, there is increasing interest in using HIA to inform decision-makers and influence policies, programs, and projects. This paper aims to compare HIA implementation models in two regions: Nouvelle-Aquitaine (France) and Montérégie (Québec, Canada) using a case study methodology. The objective is to gain a better understanding of the similarities and differences in the approaches used to achieve the operationalization of HIA. The methodological approach involves four steps: (1) design of an analytical framework based on the literature; (2) exchanges within the research team and review of documents concerning the two implementation strategies under study; (3) development of the case studies based on the proposed framework; and (4) cross-comparison analysis of the case studies. The findings show that the two regions share certain similarities, including the strong commitment and political will of the public health organizations involved and a well-established culture of engaging in intersectoral action with municipal partners. Differences mainly concern their different approaches to implementing HIAs in accordance with the regional policies and the organizational and administrative contexts in place. This study identifies potential avenues for supporting the practice of HIA at the municipal level

Year in review in Intensive Care Medicine 2009: II. Neurology, cardiovascular, experimental, pharmacology and sedation, communication and teaching

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A niche remedy for the dynamical problems of neutral theory

We demonstrate how niche theory and Hubbell's original formulation of neutral theory can be blended together into a general framework modeling the combined effects of selection, drift, speciation, and dispersal on community dynamics. This framework connects many seemingly unrelated ecological population models, and allows for quantitative predictions to be made about the impact of niche stabilizing and destabilizing forces on population extinction times and abundance distributions. In particular, the existence of niche stabilizing forces in our blended framework can simultaneously resolve two major problems with the dynamics of neutral theory, namely predictions of species lifetimes that are too short and species ages that are too long.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figures, Accepted to Theoretical Ecolog

Factors influencing the higher incidence of tuberculosis among migrants and ethnic minorities in the UK.

Migrants and ethnic minorities in the UK have higher rates of tuberculosis (TB) compared with the general population. Historically, much of the disparity in incidence between UK-born and migrant populations has been attributed to differential pathogen exposure, due to migration from high-incidence regions and the transnational connections maintained with TB endemic countries of birth or ethnic origin. However, focusing solely on exposure fails to address the relatively high rates of progression to active disease observed in some populations of latently infected individuals. A range of factors that disproportionately affect migrants and ethnic minorities, including genetic susceptibility, vitamin D deficiency and co-morbidities such as diabetes mellitus and HIV, also increase vulnerability to infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) or reactivation of latent infection. Furthermore, ethnic socio-economic disparities and the experience of migration itself may contribute to differences in TB incidence, as well as cultural and structural barriers to accessing healthcare. In this review, we discuss both biological and anthropological influences relating to risk of pathogen exposure, vulnerability to infection or development of active disease, and access to treatment for migrant and ethnic minorities in the UK