Bandit strategies in social search: the case of the DARPA red balloon challenge

Collective search for people and information has tremendously benefited from emerging communication technologies that leverage the wisdom of the crowds, and has been increasingly influential in solving time-critical tasks such as the DARPA Network Challenge (DNC, also known as the Red Balloon Challenge). However, while collective search often invests significant resources in encouraging the crowd to contribute new information, the effort invested in verifying this information is comparable, yet often neglected in crowdsourcing models. This paper studies how the exploration-verification trade-off displayed by the teams modulated their success in the DNC, as teams had limited human resources that they had to divide between recruitment (exploration) and verification (exploitation). Our analysis suggests that team performance in the DNC can be modelled as a modified multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem, where information arrives to the team originating from sources of different levels of veracity that need to be assessed in real time. We use these insights to build a data-driven agent-based model, based on the DNC’s data, to simulate team performance. The simulation results match the observed teams’ behavior and demonstrate how to achieve the best balance between exploration and exploitation for general time-critical collective search tasks.</p

On the Spiral Structure of the Milky Way Galaxy

We consider the possible pattern of the overall spiral structure of the Galaxy, using data on the distribution of neutral (atomic), molecular, and ionized hydrogen, on the base of the hypothesis of the spiral structure being symmetric, i.e. the assumption that spiral arms are translated into each other for a rotation around the galactic center by 180{\deg} (a two-arm pattern) or by 90{\deg} (a four-arm pattern). We demonstrate that, for the inner region, the observations are best represented with a four-arm scheme of the spiral pattern, associated with all-Galaxy spiral density waves. The basic position is that of the Carina arm, reliably determined from distances to HII regions and from HI and H2 radial velocities. This pattern is continued in the quadrants III and IV with weak outer HI arms; from their morphology, the Galaxy should be considered an asymmetric multi-arm spiral. The kneed shape of the outer arms that consist of straight segments can indicate that these arms are transient formations that appeared due to a gravitational instability in the gas disk. The distances between HI superclouds in the two arms that are the brightest in neutral hydrogen, the Carina arm and the Cygnus (Outer) arm, concentrate to two values, permitting to assume the presence of a regular magnetic field in these arms.Comment: 21 pages, 14 fugures; accepted for publication in Astronomichesky Journal (Astron. Rep.

Methods for specifying the target difference in a randomised controlled trial : the Difference ELicitation in TriAls (DELTA) systematic review

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Strategies for the Use of Fallback Foods in Apes

Researchers have suggested that fallback foods (FBFs) shape primate food processing adaptations, whereas preferred foods drive harvesting adaptations, and that the dietary importance of FBFs is central in determining the expression of a variety of traits. We examine these hypotheses in extant apes. First, we compare the nature and dietary importance of FBFs used by each taxon. FBF importance appears greatest in gorillas, followed by chimpanzees and siamangs, and least in orangutans and gibbons (bonobos are difficult to place). Next, we compare 20 traits among taxa to assess whether the relative expression of traits expected for consumption of FBFs matches their observed dietary importance. Trait manifestation generally conforms to predictions based on dietary importance of FBFs. However, some departures from predictions exist, particularly for orang-utans, which express relatively more food harvesting and processing traits predicted for consuming large amounts of FBFs than expected based on observed dietary importance. This is probably due to the chemical, mechanical, and phenological properties of the apes’ main FBFs, in particular high importance of figs for chimpanzees and hylobatids, compared to use of bark and leaves—plus figs in at least some Sumatran populations—by orang-utans. This may have permitted more specialized harvesting adaptations in chimpanzees and hylobatids, and required enhanced processing adaptations in orang-utans. Possible intercontinental differences in the availability and quality of preferred and FBFs may also be important. Our analysis supports previous hypotheses suggesting a critical influence of the dietary importance and quality of FBFs on ape ecology and, consequently, evolution