21 research outputs found
Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity
In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments
against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility
functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information
theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem
incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk
preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood
on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are
non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average
returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning
of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is
obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates
for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived
from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure
can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to
time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is
insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A
better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and
non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in
reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of
ergodicit
Uniform electron gases
We show that the traditional concept of the uniform electron gas (UEG) --- a
homogeneous system of finite density, consisting of an infinite number of
electrons in an infinite volume --- is inadequate to model the UEGs that arise
in finite systems. We argue that, in general, a UEG is characterized by at
least two parameters, \textit{viz.} the usual one-electron density parameter
and a new two-electron parameter . We outline a systematic
strategy to determine a new density functional across the
spectrum of possible and values.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 5 table