Chagas Disease Risk in Texas

Chagas disease is endemic in Texas and spread through triatomine insect vectors known as kissing bugs, assassin bugs, or cone–nosed bugs, which transmit the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. We examined the threat of Chagas disease due to the three most prevalent vector species and from human case occurrences and human population data at the county level. We modeled the distribution of each vector species using occurrence data from México and the United States and environmental variables. We then computed the ecological risk from the distribution models and combined it with disease incidence data to produce a composite risk map which was subsequently used to calculate the populations expected to be at risk for the disease. South Texas had the highest relative risk. We recommend mandatory reporting of Chagas disease in Texas, testing of blood donations in high risk counties, human and canine testing for Chagas disease antibodies in high risk counties, and that a joint initiative be developed between the United States and México to combat Chagas disease

Estimating Contact Process Saturation in Sylvatic Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the United States

Although it has been known for nearly a century that strains of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent for Chagas' disease, are enzootic in the southern U.S., much remains unknown about the dynamics of its transmission in the sylvatic cycles that maintain it, including the relative importance of different transmission routes. Mathematical models can fill in gaps where field and lab data are difficult to collect, but they need as inputs the values of certain key demographic and epidemiological quantities which parametrize the models. In particular, they determine whether saturation occurs in the contact processes that communicate the infection between the two populations. Concentrating on raccoons, opossums, and woodrats as hosts in Texas and the southeastern U.S., and the vectors Triatoma sanguisuga and Triatoma gerstaeckeri, we use an exhaustive literature review to derive estimates for fundamental parameters, and use simple mathematical models to illustrate a method for estimating infection rates indirectly based on prevalence data. Results are used to draw conclusions about saturation and which population density drives each of the two contact-based infection processes (stercorarian/bloodborne and oral). Analysis suggests that the vector feeding process associated with stercorarian transmission to hosts and bloodborne transmission to vectors is limited by the population density of vectors when dealing with woodrats, but by that of hosts when dealing with raccoons and opossums, while the predation of hosts on vectors which drives oral transmission to hosts is limited by the population density of hosts. Confidence in these conclusions is limited by a severe paucity of data underlying associated parameter estimates, but the approaches developed here can also be applied to the study of other vector-borne infections