Predicted Impact of Barriers to Migration on the Serengeti Wildebeest Population

The Serengeti wildebeest migration is a rare and spectacular example of a once-common biological phenomenon. A proposed road project threatens to bisect the Serengeti ecosystem and its integrity. The precautionary principle dictates that we consider the possible consequences of a road completely disrupting the migration. We used an existing spatially-explicit simulation model of wildebeest movement and population dynamics to explore how placing a barrier to migration across the proposed route (thus creating two disjoint but mobile subpopulations) might affect the long-term size of the wildebeest population. Our simulation results suggest that a barrier to migration—even without causing habitat loss—could cause the wildebeest population to decline by about a third. The driver of this decline is the effect of habitat fragmentation (even without habitat loss) on the ability of wildebeest to effectively track temporal shifts in high-quality forage resources across the landscape. Given the important role of the wildebeest migration for a number of key ecological processes, these findings have potentially important ramifications for ecosystem biodiversity, structure, and function in the Serengeti

Predicting Bison Migration out of Yellowstone National Park Using Bayesian Models

Long distance migrations by ungulate species often surpass the boundaries of preservation areas where conflicts with various publics lead to management actions that can threaten populations. We chose the partially migratory bison (Bison bison) population in Yellowstone National Park as an example of integrating science into management policies to better conserve migratory ungulates. Approximately 60% of these bison have been exposed to bovine brucellosis and thousands of migrants exiting the park boundary have been culled during the past two decades to reduce the risk of disease transmission to cattle. Data were assimilated using models representing competing hypotheses of bison migration during 1990–2009 in a hierarchal Bayesian framework. Migration differed at the scale of herds, but a single unifying logistic model was useful for predicting migrations by both herds. Migration beyond the northern park boundary was affected by herd size, accumulated snow water equivalent, and aboveground dried biomass. Migration beyond the western park boundary was less influenced by these predictors and process model performance suggested an important control on recent migrations was excluded. Simulations of migrations over the next decade suggest that allowing increased numbers of bison beyond park boundaries during severe climate conditions may be the only means of avoiding episodic, large-scale reductions to the Yellowstone bison population in the foreseeable future. This research is an example of how long distance migration dynamics can be incorporated into improved management policies

Hippopotamus and livestock grazing:influences on riparian vegetation and facilitation of other herbivores in the Mara Region of Kenya

<p>Riparian savanna habitats grazed by hippopotamus or livestock experience seasonal ecological stresses through the depletion of herbaceous vegetation, and are often points of contacts and conflicts between herbivores, humans and their livestock. We investigated how hippopotamus and livestock grazing influence vegetation structure and cover and facilitate other wild herbivores in the Mara region of Kenya. We used 5 km-long transects, each with 13 plots measuring 10 x 10 m(2), and which radiate from rivers in the Masai Mara National Reserve and adjoining community pastoral ranches. For each plot, we measured the height and visually estimated the percent cover of grasses, forbs, shrubs and bare ground, herbivore abundance and species richness. Our results showed that grass height was shortest closest to rivers in both landscapes, increased with increasing distance from rivers in the reserve, but was uniformly short in the pastoral ranches. Shifting mosaics of short grass lawns interspersed with patches of medium to tall grasses occurred within 2.5 km of the rivers in the reserve in areas grazed habitually by hippos. Hence, hippo grazing enhanced the structural heterogeneity of vegetation but livestock grazing had a homogenizing effect in the pastoral ranches. The distribution of biomass and the species richness of other ungulates with distance from rivers followed a quadratic pattern in the reserve, suggesting that hippopotamus grazing attracted more herbivores to the vegetation patches at intermediate distances from rivers in the reserve. However, the distribution of biomass and the species richness of other ungulates followed a linear pattern in the pastoral ranches, implying that herbivores avoided areas grazed heavily by livestock in the pastoral ranches, especially near rivers.</p>