Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling

Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population’s recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales

Hydrocarbon-Degrading Bacteria Exhibit a Species-Specific Response to Dispersed Oil while Moderating Ecotoxicity.

The Deepwater Horizon blowout in April 2010 represented the largest accidental marine oil spill and the largest release of chemical dispersants into the environment to date. While dispersant application may provide numerous benefits to oil spill response efforts, the impacts of dispersants and potential synergistic effects with crude oil on individual hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria are poorly understood. In this study, two environmentally relevant species of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria were utilized to quantify the response to Macondo crude oil and Corexit 9500A-dispersed oil in terms of bacterial growth and oil degradation potential. In addition, specific hydrocarbon compounds were quantified in the dissolved phase of the medium and linked to ecotoxicity using a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-approved rotifer assay. Bacterial treatment significantly and drastically reduced the toxicity associated with dispersed oil (increasing the 50% lethal concentration [LC50] by 215%). The growth and crude oil degradation potential of Acinetobacter were inhibited by Corexit by 34% and 40%, respectively; conversely, Corexit significantly enhanced the growth of Alcanivorax by 10% relative to that in undispersed oil. Furthermore, both bacterial strains were shown to grow with Corexit as the sole carbon and energy source. Hydrocarbon-degrading bacterial species demonstrate a unique response to dispersed oil compared to their response to crude oil, with potentially opposing effects on toxicity. While some species have the potential to enhance the toxicity of crude oil by producing biosurfactants, the same bacteria may reduce the toxicity associated with dispersed oil through degradation or sequestration