3 research outputs found

    Towards a characterization of behavior-disease models

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    The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single individuals. However, relatively little systematic work has been done to provide coupled behavior-disease models able to close the feedback loop between behavioral changes triggered in the population by an individual's perception of the disease spread and the actual disease spread itself. While models lacking this coupling can be extremely successful in mild epidemics, they obviously will be of limited use in situations where social disruption or behavioral alterations are induced in the population by knowledge of the disease. Here we propose a characterization of a set of prototypical mechanisms for self-initiated social distancing induced by local and non-local prevalence-based information available to individuals in the population. We characterize the effects of these mechanisms in the framework of a compartmental scheme that enlarges the basic SIR model by considering separate behavioral classes within the population. The transition of individuals in/out of behavioral classes is coupled with the spreading of the disease and provides a rich phase space with multiple epidemic peaks and tipping points. The class of models presented here can be used in the case of data-driven computational approaches to analyze scenarios of social adaptation and behavioral change.Comment: 24 pages, 15 figure

    Factors associated with unprotected receptive anal intercourse with internal ejaculation among men who have sex with men in a large internet sample from asia

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    We examined socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics of men who have sex with men (MSM) residing in Asia and correlates of unprotected receptive intercourse with Internet ejaculation (URAIE). Asia Internet MSM Sex Survey, a behavioral survey of MSM in Asia was conducted from 1 January to 28 February 2010. Data analysis was limited to participants aged 18 or above, biological male, and had one regular or casual sex partner in the past 6 months (n = 10,413). Pearson's Chi-square test, t test and logistic regression were used to examine the correlates of URAIE in the past 6 months, the highest risk sexual behavior sampled. Of 7311 participants who had receptive anal intercourse, 47.5 % had URAIE, which was associated with the following attributes: less than high-school education and pre-college education compared to university (AOR = 1.53, 95 % CI: 1.28, 1.83; AOR = 1.22, CI: 1.08, 1.37), being in the heterosexual marriage (AOR = 1.35, CI: 1.18, 1.56), having regular partners or both regular and casual partners compared to having casual partners (AOR = 2.85, CI: 2.48, 3.27; AOR = 2.32, CI: 2.06, 2.62), HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative status (AOR = 1.39, 95 % CI: 1.08, 1.81), higher perception of HIV risk (AOR = 1.62, CI: 1.34, 1.95), use of recreational drug before sex (AOR = 1.30, CI: 1.14, 1.49), and use of the Internet as the main way to seek sex partners (AOR = 1.21, CI: 1.08, 1.36). MSM from certain Asian countries reported alarming rates of URAIE. The internet can be used as a platform for HIV surveillance and intervention. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012
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