Estimating summary measures of health: a structured workbook approach

BACKGROUND: Summary measures of health that combine mortality and morbidity into a single indicator are being estimated in the Canadian context for approximately 200 diseases and conditions. To manage the large amount of data and calculations for this many diseases, we have developed a structured workbook system with easy to use tools. We expect this system will be attractive to researchers from other countries or regions of Canada who are interested in estimating the health-adjusted life years (HALYs) lost to premature mortality and year-equivalents lost to reduced functioning, as well as population attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with risk factors. This paper describes the workbook system using cancers as an example, and includes the entire system as a free, downloadable package. METHODS: The workbook system was developed in Excel and runs on a personal computer. It is a database system that stores data on population structure, mortality, incidence, distributions of cases entering a multitude of health states, durations of time spent in health states, preference scores that weight for severity, life table estimates of life expectancies, and risk factor prevalence and relative risks. The tools are Excel files with embedded macro programs. The main tool generates workbooks that estimate HALY, one per disease, by copying data from the database into a pre-defined template. Other tools summarize the HALY results across diseases for easy analysis. RESULTS: The downloadable zip file contains the database files initialized with Canadian data for cancers, the tools, templates and workbooks that estimate PAF and a user guide. The workbooks that estimate HALY are generated from the system at a rate of approximately one minute per disease. The resulting workbooks are self-contained and can be used directly to explore the details of a particular disease. Results can be discounted at different rates through simple parameter modification. CONCLUSION: The structured workbook approach offers researchers an efficient, easy to use, and easy to understand set of tools for estimating HALY and PAF summary measures for their country or region of interest

Quantifying the Spatial Dimension of Dengue Virus Epidemic Spread within a Tropical Urban Environment

Global trends in population growth and human redistribution and movement have reshaped the map of dengue transmission risk, exposing a significant proportion of the world's population to the threat of dengue epidemics. Knowledge on the relative contribution of vector and human movement to the widespread and explosive nature of dengue epidemic spread within an urban environment is limited. By analyzing a very detailed dataset of a dengue epidemic that affected the Australian city of Cairns we performed a comprehensive quantification of the spatio-temporal dimensions of dengue virus epidemic transmission and propagation within a complex urban environment. Space and space-time analysis and models allowed derivation of detailed information on the pattern of introduction and epidemic spread of dengue infection within the urban space. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to many other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics

Factors associated with underutilization of antenatal care services in Indonesia: results of Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey 2002/2003 and 2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Antenatal care aims to prevent maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. In Indonesia, at least four antenatal visits are recommended during pregnancy. However, this service has been underutilized. This study aimed to examine factors associated with underutilization of antenatal care services in Indonesia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) 2002/2003 and 2007. Information of 26,591 singleton live-born infants of the mothers' most recent birth within five years preceding each survey was examined. Twenty-three potential risk factors were identified and categorized into four main groups, external environment, predisposing, enabling, and need factors. Logistic regression models were used to examine the association between all potential risk factors and underutilization of antenatal services. The Population Attributable Risk (PAR) was calculated for selected significant factors associated with the outcome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Factors strongly associated with underutilization of antenatal care services were infants from rural areas and from outer Java-Bali region, infants from low household wealth index and with low maternal education level, and high birth rank infants with short birth interval of less than two years. Other associated factors identified included mothers reporting distance to health facilities as a major problem, mothers less exposed to mass media, and mothers reporting no obstetric complications during pregnancy. The PAR showed that 55% of the total risks for underutilization of antenatal care services were attributable to the combined low household wealth index and low maternal education level.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Strategies to increase the accessibility and availability of health care services are important particularly for communities in rural areas. Financial support that enables mothers from poor households to use health services will be beneficial. Health promotion programs targeting mothers with low education are vital to increase their awareness about the importance of antenatal services.</p

The utility of screening for perinatal depression in the second trimester among Chinese: a three-wave prospective longitudinal study

This paper aims to study the pattern of perinatal depressive symptomatology and determine the predictive power of second trimester perinatal depressive symptoms for future perinatal periods. A population-based sample of 2,178 women completed the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) in the second and third trimesters and at 6 weeks postpartum. Repeated measures ANOVAs were used to determine the EPDS scores across three stages. The predictive power of the second trimester EPDS score in identifying women with an elevated EPDS score in the third trimester and at 6 weeks postpartum were determined. The predictive power of the second trimester EPDS score was further assessed using stepwise logistic regression and receiver operator characteristic curves. EPDS scores differed significantly across three stages. The rates were 9.9%, 7.8%, and 8.7% for an EPDS score of >14 in the second and third trimesters and at 6 weeks postpartum, respectively. Using a cut-off of 14/15, the second trimester EPDS score accurately classified 89.6% of women in the third trimester and 87.2% of those at 6 weeks postpartum with or without perinatal depressive symptomatology. Women with a second trimester EPDS score >14 were 11.78 times more likely in the third trimester and 7.15 times more likely at 6 weeks postpartum to exhibit perinatal depressive symptomatology after adjustment of sociodemographic variables. The area under the curve for perinatal depressive symptomatology was 0.85 in the third trimester and 0.77 at 6 weeks postpartum. To identify women at high risk for postpartum depression, healthcare professionals could consider screening all pregnant women in the second trimester so that secondary preventive intervention may be implemented

The Blood Pressure "Uncertainty Range" – a pragmatic approach to overcome current diagnostic uncertainties (II)

A tremendous amount of scientific evidence regarding the physiology and physiopathology of high blood pressure combined with a sophisticated therapeutic arsenal is at the disposal of the medical community to counteract the overall public health burden of hypertension. Ample evidence has also been gathered from a multitude of large-scale randomized trials indicating the beneficial effects of current treatment strategies in terms of reduced hypertension-related morbidity and mortality. In spite of these impressive advances and, deeply disappointingly from a public health perspective, the real picture of hypertension management is overshadowed by widespread diagnostic inaccuracies (underdiagnosis, overdiagnosis) as well as by treatment failures generated by undertreatment, overtreatment, and misuse of medications. The scientific, medical and patient communities as well as decision-makers worldwide are striving for greatest possible health gains from available resources. A seemingly well-crystallised reasoning is that comprehensive strategic approaches must not only target hypertension as a pathological entity, but rather, take into account the wider environment in which hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease carrying a great deal of our inheritance, and its interplay in the constellation of other, well-known, modifiable risk factors, i.e., attention is to be switched from one's "blood pressure level" to one's absolute cardiovascular risk and its determinants. Likewise, a risk/benefit assessment in each individual case is required in order to achieve best possible results. Nevertheless, it is of paramount importance to insure generalizability of ABPM use in clinical practice with the aim of improving the accuracy of a first diagnosis for both individual treatment and clinical research purposes. Widespread adoption of the method requires quick adjustment of current guidelines, development of appropriate technology infrastructure and training of staff (i.e., education, decision support, and information systems for practitioners and patients). Progress can be achieved in a few years, or in the next 25 years