Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning), forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Linear regression analysis was applied to aggregate sales data on hospital sales and dispensed drugs in ambulatory care, including both reimbursed expenditure and patient co-payment. The linear regression was applied on each pharmacological group based on four observations 2006-2009, and the crude predictions estimated for the coming two years 2010-2011. The crude predictions were then adjusted for factors likely to increase or decrease future utilization and expenditure, such as patent expiries, new drugs to be launched or new guidelines from national bodies or the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. The assessment included a close collaboration with clinical, clinical pharmacological and pharmaceutical experts from the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual increase in total expenditure for prescription and hospital drugs was predicted to be 2.0% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011. Expenditures will increase in most therapeutic areas, but most predominantly for antineoplastic and immune modulating agents as well as drugs for the nervous system, infectious diseases, and blood and blood-forming organs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The utilisation and expenditure of drugs is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the rate of adoption of new medicines and various ongoing healthcare reforms and activities to improve the quality and efficiency of prescribing. Nevertheless, we believe our model will be valuable as an early warning system to start developing guidance for new drugs including systems to monitor their effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness in clinical practice.</p

The immunopathology of ANCA-associated vasculitis.

The small-vessel vasculitides are a group of disorders characterised by variable patterns of small blood vessel inflammation producing a markedly heterogeneous clinical phenotype. While any vessel in any organ may be involved, distinct but often overlapping sets of clinical features have allowed the description of three subtypes associated with the presence of circulating anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCA), namely granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA, formerly known as Wegener's Granulomatosis), microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) and eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (eGPA, formerly known as Churg-Strauss syndrome). Together, these conditions are called the ANCA-associated vasculitidies (AAV). Both formal nomenclature and classification criteria for the syndromes have changed repeatedly since their description over 100 years ago and may conceivably do so again following recent reports showing distinct genetic associations of patients with detectable ANCA of distinct specificities. ANCA are not only useful in classifying the syndromes but substantial evidence implicates them in driving disease pathogenesis although the mechanism by which they develop and tolerance is broken remains controversial. Advances in our understanding of the pathogenesis of the syndromes have been accompanied by some progress in treatment, although much remains to be done to improve the chronic morbidity associated with the immunosuppression required for disease control

Fine root chemistry and decomposition in model communities of north-temperate tree species show little response to elevated atmospheric CO 2 and varying soil resource availability

Rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] has the potential to alter soil carbon (C) cycling by increasing the content of recalcitrant constituents in plant litter, thereby decreasing rates of decomposition. Because fine root turnover constitutes a large fraction of annual NPP, changes in fine root decomposition are especially important. These responses will likely be affected by soil resource availability and the life history characteristics of the dominant tree species. We evaluated the effects of elevated atmospheric [CO 2 ] and soil resource availability on the production and chemistry, mycorrhizal colonization, and decomposition of fine roots in an early- and late-successional tree species that are economically and ecologically important in north temperate forests. Open-top chambers were used to expose young trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) and sugar maple ( Acer saccharum ) trees to ambient (36 Pa) and elevated (56 Pa) atmospheric CO 2 . Soil resource availability was composed of two treatments that bracketed the range found in the Upper Lake States, USA. After 2.5 years of growth, sugar maple had greater fine root standing crop due to relatively greater allocation to fine roots (30% of total root biomass) relative to aspen (7% total root biomass). Relative to the low soil resources treatment, aspen fine root biomass increased 76% with increased soil resource availability, but only under elevated [CO 2 ]. Sugar maple fine root biomass increased 26% with increased soil resource availability (relative to the low soil resources treatment), and showed little response to elevated [CO 2 ]. Concentrations of N and soluble phenolics, and C/N ratio in roots were similar for the two species, but aspen had slightly higher lignin and lower condensed tannins contents compared to sugar maple. As predicted by source-sink models of carbon allocation, pooled constituents (C/N ratio, soluble phenolics) increased in response to increased relative carbon availability (elevated [CO 2 ]/low soil resource availability), however, biosynthetically distinct compounds (lignin, starch, condensed tannins) did not always respond as predicted. We found that mycorrhizal colonization of fine roots was not strongly affected by atmospheric [CO 2 ] or soil resource availability, as indicated by root ergosterol contents. Overall, absolute changes in root chemical composition in response to increases in C and soil resource availability were small and had no effect on soil fungal biomass or specific rates of fine root decomposition. We conclude that root contributions to soil carbon cycling will mainly be influenced by fine root production and turnover responses to rising atmospheric [CO 2 ], rather than changes in substrate chemistry.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47710/1/442_2005_Article_191.pd