The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

Analysis of factors influencing the ultrasonic fetal weight estimation

Objective: The aim of our study was the evaluation of sonographic fetal weight estimation taking into consideration 9 of the most important factors of influence on the precision of the estimation. Methods: We analyzed 820 singleton pregnancies from 22 to 42 weeks of gestational age. We evaluated 9 different factors that potentially influence the precision of sonographic weight estimation ( time interval between estimation and delivery, experts vs. less experienced investigator, fetal gender, gestational age, fetal weight, maternal BMI, amniotic fluid index, presentation of the fetus, location of the placenta). Finally, we compared the results of the fetal weight estimation of the fetuses with poor scanning conditions to those presenting good scanning conditions. Results: Of the 9 evaluated factors that may influence accuracy of fetal weight estimation, only a short interval between sonographic weight estimation and delivery (0-7 vs. 8-14 days) had a statistically significant impact. Conclusion: Of all known factors of influence, only a time interval of more than 7 days between estimation and delivery had a negative impact on the estimation

The use of phylogeny to interpret cross-cultural patterns in plant use and guide medicinal plant discovery: an example from Pterocarpus (Leguminosae)

The study of traditional knowledge of medicinal plants has led to discoveries that have helped combat diseases and improve healthcare. However, the development of quantitative measures that can assist our quest for new medicinal plants has not greatly advanced in recent years. Phylogenetic tools have entered many scientific fields in the last two decades to provide explanatory power, but have been overlooked in ethnomedicinal studies. Several studies show that medicinal properties are not randomly distributed in plant phylogenies, suggesting that phylogeny shapes ethnobotanical use. Nevertheless, empirical studies that explicitly combine ethnobotanical and phylogenetic information are scarce.In this study, we borrowed tools from community ecology phylogenetics to quantify significance of phylogenetic signal in medicinal properties in plants and identify nodes on phylogenies with high bioscreening potential. To do this, we produced an ethnomedicinal review from extensive literature research and a multi-locus phylogenetic hypothesis for the pantropical genus Pterocarpus (Leguminosae: Papilionoideae). We demonstrate that species used to treat a certain conditions, such as malaria, are significantly phylogenetically clumped and we highlight nodes in the phylogeny that are significantly overabundant in species used to treat certain conditions. These cross-cultural patterns in ethnomedicinal usage in Pterocarpus are interpreted in the light of phylogenetic relationships.This study provides techniques that enable the application of phylogenies in bioscreening, but also sheds light on the processes that shape cross-cultural ethnomedicinal patterns. This community phylogenetic approach demonstrates that similar ethnobotanical uses can arise in parallel in different areas where related plants are available. With a vast amount of ethnomedicinal and phylogenetic information available, we predict that this field, after further refinement of the techniques, will expand into similar research areas, such as pest management or the search for bioactive plant-based compounds

Micronutrient malnutrition and wasting in adults with pulmonary tuberculosis with and without HIV co-infection in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Wasting and micronutrient malnutrition have not been well characterized in adults with pulmonary tuberculosis. We hypothesized that micronutrient malnutrition is associated with wasting and higher plasma human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) load in adults with pulmonary tuberculosis. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study involving 579 HIV-positive and 222 HIV-negative adults with pulmonary tuberculosis in Zomba, Malawi, anthropometry, plasma HIV load and plasma micronutrient concentrations (retinol, α-tocopherol, carotenoids, zinc, and selenium) were measured. The risk of micronutrient deficiencies was examined at different severity levels of wasting. RESULTS: Body mass index (BMI), plasma retinol, carotenoid and selenium concentrations significantly decreased by increasing tertile of plasma HIV load. There were no significant differences in plasma micronutrient concentrations between HIV-negative individuals and HIV-positive individuals who were in the lowest tertile of plasma HIV load. Plasma vitamin A concentrations <0.70 μmol/L occurred in 61%, and zinc and selenium deficiency occurred in 85% and 87% respectively. Wasting, defined as BMI<18.5 was present in 59% of study participants and was independently associated with a higher risk of low carotenoids, and vitamin A and selenium deficiency. Severe wasting, defined as BMI<16.0 showed the strongest associations with deficiencies in vitamin A, selenium and plasma carotenoids. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that wasting and higher HIV load in pulmonary tuberculosis are associated with micronutrient malnutrition

Effort-related functions of nucleus accumbens dopamine and associated forebrain circuits

Background Over the last several years, it has become apparent that there are critical problems with the hypothesis that brain dopamine (DA) systems, particularly in the nucleus accumbens, directly mediate the rewarding or primary motivational characteristics of natural stimuli such as food. Hypotheses related to DA function are undergoing a substantial restructuring, such that the classic emphasis on hedonia and primary reward is giving way to diverse lines of research that focus on aspects of instrumental learning, reward prediction, incentive motivation, and behavioral activation. Objective The present review discusses dopaminergic involvement in behavioral activation and, in particular, emphasizes the effort-related functions of nucleus accumbens DA and associated forebrain circuitry. Results The effects of accumbens DA depletions on food-seeking behavior are critically dependent upon the work requirements of the task. Lever pressing schedules that have minimal work requirements are largely unaffected by accumbens DA depletions, whereas reinforcement schedules that have high work (e.g., ratio) requirements are substantially impaired by accumbens DA depletions. Moreover, interference with accumbens DA transmission exerts a powerful influence over effort-related decision making. Rats with accumbens DA depletions reallocate their instrumental behavior away from food-reinforced tasks that have high response requirements, and instead, these rats select a less-effortful type of food-seeking behavior. Conclusions Along with prefrontal cortex and the amygdala, nucleus accumbens is a component of the brain circuitry regulating effort-related functions. Studies of the brain systems regulating effort-based processes may have implications for understanding drug abuse, as well as energy-related disorders such as psychomotor slowing, fatigue, or anergia in depression

The Spin Structure of the Nucleon

We present an overview of recent experimental and theoretical advances in our understanding of the spin structure of protons and neutrons.Comment: 84 pages, 29 figure

How does study quality affect the results of a diagnostic meta-analysis?

Background: The use of systematic literature review to inform evidence based practice in diagnostics is rapidly expanding. Although the primary diagnostic literature is extensive, studies are often of low methodological quality or poorly reported. There has been no rigorously evaluated, evidence based tool to assess the methodological quality of diagnostic studies. The primary objective of this study was to determine the extent to which variations in the quality of primary studies impact the results of a diagnostic meta-analysis and whether this differs with diagnostic test type. A secondary objective was to contribute to the evaluation of QUADAS, an evidence-based tool for the assessment of quality in diagnostic accuracy studies. Methods: This study was conducted as part of large systematic review of tests used in the diagnosis and further investigation of urinary tract infection (UTI) in children. All studies included in this review were assessed using QUADAS, an evidence-based tool for the assessment of quality in systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy studies. The impact of individual components of QUADAS on a summary measure of diagnostic accuracy was investigated using regression analysis. The review divided the diagnosis and further investigation of UTI into the following three clinical stages: diagnosis of UTI, localisation of infection, and further investigation of the UTI. Each stage used different types of diagnostic test, which were considered to involve different quality concerns. Results: Many of the studies included in our review were poorly reported. The proportion of QUADAS items fulfilled was similar for studies in different sections of the review. However, as might be expected, the individual items fulfilled differed between the three clinical stages. Regression analysis found that different items showed a strong association with test performance for the different tests evaluated. These differences were observed both within and between the three clinical stages assessed by the review. The results of regression analyses were also affected by whether or not a weighting (by sample size) was applied. Our analysis was severely limited by the completeness of reporting and the differences between the index tests evaluated and the reference standards used to confirm diagnoses in the primary studies. Few tests were evaluated by sufficient studies to allow meaningful use of meta-analytic pooling and investigation of heterogeneity. This meant that further analysis to investigate heterogeneity could only be undertaken using a subset of studies, and that the findings are open to various interpretations. Conclusion: Further work is needed to investigate the influence of methodological quality on the results of diagnostic meta-analyses. Large data sets of well-reported primary studies are needed to address this question. Without significant improvements in the completeness of reporting of primary studies, progress in this area will be limited