Complexity, crash and collapse of chaos: Clues for designing sustainable systems, with focus on grassland-based systems

Terms such as system crash, collapse of chaos and complexity can help one understand change, also in biological, socio-economic and technical systems. These terms need, however, explanation for fruitful dialogue on design of sustainable systems. We start this paper on Grass Based (GB) systems, therefore, dwelling on these terms and notions as review for the insiders and to help interested ‘outsiders’. We also stress the need to use additional and/or new paradigms for understanding of the nature of nature. However, we show that many such ‘new’ paradigms were known for long time around the globe among philosophers and common men, giving reason to include quotes and examples from other cultures and eras. In the past few centuries, those paradigms have become hidden, perhaps, under impressive but short-term successes of more linear paradigms. Therefore, we list hang-ups on paradigms of those past few centuries. We then outline what is meant by ‘GB systems’, which exist in multiple forms/‘scapes’. Coping with such variation is perhaps the most central aspect of complexity. To help cope with this variation, the different (GB) systems can be arranged on spatial, temporal, and other scales in such a way that the arrangements form logical sequences (evolutions) of stable states and transitions of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Together with other ways to handle complexity, we give examples of such arrangements to illustrate how one can (re-)imagine, (re-)cognize and manage initial chaotic behaviors and eventual ‘collapse’ of chaos into design and/or emergence of new systems. Then, we list known system behaviors, such as predator–prey cycles, adaptive cycles, lock-in, specialization and even tendency to higher (or lower) entropy. All this is needed to understand changes in management of evolving GB into multi-scapes. Integration of disciplines and paradigms indicates that a win-win is likely to be exception rather than rule. With the rules given in this paper, one can reset teaching, research, rural development, and policy agendas in GB-systems and other areas of life

Shifting livelihood strategies in northern Nigeria - extensified production and livelihood diversification amongst Fulani pastoralists

Abstract This paper presents an in-depth investigation of the livelihood strategies of Fulani pastoralists in north central Nigeria. Results show a diversified crop-livestock system aimed at spreading risk and reducing cattle offtake, adapted to natural resource competition and insecurity by extensification, with further diversification into off-farm activities to spread risk, increase livelihood security and capture opportunities. However, significant costs were associated with extensification, and integration of crop and livestock enterprises was limited. Mean total income per capita in the study area was $554 or$1.52/person/day with 42% of households earning less than 1.25/person/day. Income levels were positively correlated with income diversity and price received per animal sold, rather than herd size. The outcomes of this livelihood strategy were favourable across the whole community, but when individual households are considered, there was evidence of moderate economic inequality in total income, cash income and herd size (Gini coefficient 0.32, 0.35 and 0.43 respectively). The poorest households were quite vulnerable, with low assets, income and income diversity. Implications for sustainability are discussed given the likelihood that the negative trends of reduced access to natural resources and insecurity will continue