Sources of Variation in Physician Adherence with Clinical Guidelines: Results from a Factorial Experiment

BACKGROUND: Health services research has documented the magnitude of health care variations. Few studies focus on provider level sources of variation in clinical decision making-for example, which primary care providers are likely to follow clinical guidelines, with which types of patient. OBJECTIVES: To estimate: (1) the extent of primary care provider adherence to practice guidelines and the unconfounded influence of (2) patient attributes and (3) physician characteristics on adherence with clinical practice guidelines. DESIGN: In a factorial experiment, primary care providers were shown clinically authentic video vignettes with actors portrayed different “patients” with identical signs of coronary heart disease (CHD). Different types of providers were asked how they would manage the different “patients” with identical CHD symptoms. Measures were taken to protect external validity. RESULTS: Adherence to some guidelines is high (over 50% of physicians would follow a third of the recommended actions), yet there is low adherence to many of them (less than 20% would follow another third). Female patients are less likely than males to receive 4 of 5 types of physical examination (p < .03); older patients are less likely to be advised to stop smoking (p < .03). Race and SES of patients had no effect on provider adherence to guidelines. A physicians’ level of experience (age) appears to be important with certain patients. CONCLUSIONS: Physician adherence with guidelines varies with different types of “patient” and with the length of clinical experience. With this evidence it is possible to appropriately target interventions to reduce health care variations by improving physician adherence with clinical guidelines

Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.Comment: 26 pages, 6 figure

If players are sparse social dilemmas are too: Importance of percolation for evolution of cooperation

Spatial reciprocity is a well known tour de force of cooperation promotion. A thorough understanding of the effects of different population densities is therefore crucial. Here we study the evolution of cooperation in social dilemmas on different interaction graphs with a certain fraction of vacant nodes. We find that sparsity may favor the resolution of social dilemmas, especially if the population density is close to the percolation threshold of the underlying graph. Regardless of the type of the governing social dilemma as well as particularities of the interaction graph, we show that under pairwise imitation the percolation threshold is a universal indicator of how dense the occupancy ought to be for cooperation to be optimally promoted. We also demonstrate that myopic updating, due to the lack of efficient spread of information via imitation, renders the reported mechanism dysfunctional, which in turn further strengthens its foundations.Comment: 6 two-column pages, 5 figures; accepted for publication in Scientific Reports [related work available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1205.0541

Modeling complex ecological economic systems: toward an evolutionary, dynamic understanding of people and nature

Recent understanding about system dynamics and predictability that has emerged from the study of complex systems is creating new tools for modeling interactions between anthropogenic and natural systems. A range of techniques has become available through advances in computer speed and accessibility and by implementing a broad, interdisciplinary systems view

Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence

Rising sea temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of disease outbreaks affecting reef-building corals through impacts on coral hosts and pathogens. We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence. Both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios are examined. We also compare projections for the onset of disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by local human activities. There is great spatial variation in the projections, both among and within the major ocean basins, in conditions favouring disease development. Our results indicate that disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming decades. These projections identify priority locations to reduce stress caused by local human activities and test management interventions to reduce disease impacts

The Perfect Family: Decision Making in Biparental Care

Background Previous theoretical work on parental decisions in biparental care has emphasized the role of the conflict between evolutionary interests of parents in these decisions. A prominent prediction from this work is that parents should compensate for decreases in each other\u27s effort, but only partially so. However, experimental tests that manipulate parents and measure their responses fail to confirm this prediction. At the same time, the process of parental decision making has remained unexplored theoretically. We develop a model to address the discrepancy between experiments and the theoretical prediction, and explore how assuming different decision making processes changes the prediction from the theory. Model Description We assume that parents make decisions in behavioral time. They have a fixed time budget, and allocate it between two parental tasks: provisioning the offspring and defending the nest. The proximate determinant of the allocation decisions are parents\u27 behavioral objectives. We assume both parents aim to maximize the offspring production from the nest. Experimental manipulations change the shape of the nest production function. We consider two different scenarios for how parents make decisions: one where parents communicate with each other and act together (the perfect family), and one where they do not communicate, and act independently (the almost perfect family). Conclusions/Significance The perfect family model is able to generate all the types of responses seen in experimental studies. The kind of response predicted depends on the nest production function, i.e. how parents\u27 allocations affect offspring production, and the type of experimental manipulation. In particular, we find that complementarity of parents\u27 allocations promotes matching responses. In contrast, the relative responses do not depend on the type of manipulation in the almost perfect family model. These results highlight the importance of the interaction between nest production function and how parents make decisions, factors that have largely been overlooked in previous models

Results of isolated posterolateral corner reconstruction

BACKGROUND: Isolated posterolateral corner (PLC) tears are relatively rare events. Various surgical techniques to treat posterolateral knee instability have been described; because surgical results are linked to cruciate reconstructions it has been difficult to date to define whether one surgical procedure has better prognosis than another. The goal of this study is to determine the clinical outcome of PLC reconstruction following fibular-based technique. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated a case series of patients who received isolated PLC reconstruction between March 2005 and January 2007. Ten patients were surgically treated for isolated injuries and were available for follow-up; average patient age was 27.4 years (range 16-47 years). All patients were treated following the fibular-based technique: double femoral tunnel was performed in six patients, while in the remaining four patients, the reconstruction of the PLC was performed with a single femoral tunnel. Six patients had semitendinosus allograft and four had semitendinosus autograft. All patients had the same evaluation and the same rehabilitation protocol. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 27.5 months (range 18-40 months). Mean range of motion (ROM) was 143.5 degrees for flexion (range 135-150 degrees) and 0.5 degrees for extension (range 0-3 degrees). Three patients showed 1+ on varus stress test, while on Dial test another three patients showed 10 degrees reduction of external rotation compared with contralateral knee. The average Lysholm score was 94 points (range 83-100), and the mean International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) subjective result was 88.48 (range 74-96.5). Based on Lysholm score, the results were excellent in eight knees and good in two knees. On IKDC evaluation, two patients were grade A and eight were grade B. No significant difference in clinical results was observed between single and double femoral tunnel. CONCLUSION: Fibular-based technique showed good results in terms of clinical outcome, restoring varus and rotation stability of knees in treatment of chronic isolated PLC injury

Antagonistic Parent-Offspring Co-Adaptation

In species across taxa, offspring have means to influence parental investment (PI). PI thus evolves as an interacting phenotype and indirect genetic effects may strongly affect the co-evolutionary dynamics of offspring and parental behaviors. Evolutionary theory focused on explaining how exaggerated offspring solicitation can be understood as resolution of parent-offspring conflict, but the evolutionary origin and diversification of different forms of family interactions remains unclear.Methodology/Principal Findings In contrast to previous theory that largely uses a static approach to predict how “offspring individuals” and “parental individuals” should interact given conflict over PI, we present a dynamic theoretical framework of antagonistic selection on the PI individuals obtain/take as offspring and the PI they provide as parents to maximize individual lifetime reproductive success; we analyze a deterministic and a stochastic version of this dynamic framework. We show that a zone for equivalent co-adaptation outcomes exists in which stable levels of PI can evolve and be maintained despite fast strategy transitions and ongoing co-evolutionary dynamics. Under antagonistic co-adaptation, cost-free solicitation can evolve as an adaptation to emerging preferences in parents. Conclusions/Significance We show that antagonistic selection across the offspring and parental life-stage of individuals favors co-adapted offspring and parental behavior within a zone of equivalent outcomes. This antagonistic parent-offspring co-adaptation does not require solicitation to be costly, allows for rapid divergence and evolutionary novelty and potentially explains the origin and diversification of the observed provisioning forms in family life

Synonymous Genes Explore Different Evolutionary Landscapes

The evolutionary potential of a gene is constrained not only by the amino acid sequence of its product, but by its DNA sequence as well. The topology of the genetic code is such that half of the amino acids exhibit synonymous codons that can reach different subsets of amino acids from each other through single mutation. Thus, synonymous DNA sequences should access different regions of the protein sequence space through a limited number of mutations, and this may deeply influence the evolution of natural proteins. Here, we demonstrate that this feature can be of value for manipulating protein evolvability. We designed an algorithm that, starting from an input gene, constructs a synonymous sequence that systematically includes the codons with the most different evolutionary perspectives; i.e., codons that maximize accessibility to amino acids previously unreachable from the template by point mutation. A synonymous version of a bacterial antibiotic resistance gene was computed and synthesized. When concurrently submitted to identical directed evolution protocols, both the wild type and the recoded sequence led to the isolation of specific, advantageous phenotypic variants. Simulations based on a mutation isolated only from the synthetic gene libraries were conducted to assess the impact of sub-functional selective constraints, such as codon usage, on natural adaptation. Our data demonstrate that rational design of synonymous synthetic genes stands as an affordable improvement to any directed evolution protocol. We show that using two synonymous DNA sequences improves the overall yield of the procedure by increasing the diversity of mutants generated. These results provide conclusive evidence that synonymous coding sequences do experience different areas of the corresponding protein adaptive landscape, and that a sequence's codon usage effectively constrains the evolution of the encoded protein

Genetic Diversity and Antimicrobial Resistance of Escherichia coli from Human and Animal Sources Uncovers Multiple Resistances from Human Sources

Escherichia coli are widely used as indicators of fecal contamination, and in some cases to identify host sources of fecal contamination in surface water. Prevalence, genetic diversity and antimicrobial susceptibility were determined for 600 generic E. coli isolates obtained from surface water and sediment from creeks and channels along the middle Santa Ana River (MSAR) watershed of southern California, USA, after a 12 month study. Evaluation of E. coli populations along the creeks and channels showed that E. coli were more prevalent in sediment compared to surface water. E. coli populations were not significantly different (P = 0.05) between urban runoff sources and agricultural sources, however, E. coli genotypes determined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) were less diverse in the agricultural sources than in urban runoff sources. PFGE also showed that E. coli populations in surface water were more diverse than in the sediment, suggesting isolates in sediment may be dominated by clonal populations.Twenty four percent (144 isolates) of the 600 isolates exhibited resistance to more than one antimicrobial agent. Most multiple resistances were associated with inputs from urban runoff and involved the antimicrobials rifampicin, tetracycline, and erythromycin. The occurrence of a greater number of E. coli with multiple antibiotic resistances from urban runoff sources than agricultural sources in this watershed provides useful evidence in planning strategies for water quality management and public health protection