Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability

Using data for a large panel of countries, this paper investigates the role played by income inequality and fiscal stimuli episodes in shaping the likelihood of political stability. By means of Tobit estimations, we show that a rise in inequality increases the probability of government crises. However, such adverse distributional effect is reduced when expansionary or increasingly expansionary fiscal stimuli episodes or successful fiscal stimuli programs are put in place.COMPETE2020, Feder, Portugal 2020, FC

When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants

Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952 to 2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups