Climatic variability during the last millennium in Western Iceland from lake sediment records

The aim of this research was to create a decadal-scale terrestrial quantitative palaeoclimate record for NW Iceland from lake sediments for the last millennium. Geochemical, stable isotope and chironomid reconstructions were obtained from a lake sequence constrained by tephra deposits on the Snæfellsnes peninsula, western Iceland. Obtaining a quantitative record proved problematic, but the qualitative chironomid record showed clear trends associated with past summer temperatures, and the sedimentological records provided evidence for past changes in precipitation, mediated through catchment soil in-wash. When the full range of chronological uncertainty is considered, four clear phases of climatic conditions were identified: (1) a relatively warm phase between AD 1020 and 1310; (2) a relatively stable period between AD 1310 and 1510, cooler than the preceding period but still notably warmer than the second half of the millennium; (3) a consistent reduction of temperatures between AD 1560 and 1810, with the coolest period between AD 1680 and 1810; and (4) AD 1840–2000 has temperatures mainly warmer than in the preceding two centuries, with a rising trend and increased variability from c. AD 1900 onwards. The reconstructions show clearly that the first half of the millennium experienced warmer climatic conditions than the second half, with a return to the warmer climate only occurring in the last c. 100 years. Much of the variability of the chironomid record can be linked to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The reconstructions presented can track low-frequency and long-term trends effectively and consistently but high-resolution and calibrated quantitative records remain more of a challenge – not just in finding optimal sedimentary deposits but also in finding the most reliable proxy. It is this that presents the real challenge for Holocene climate reconstruction from this key area of the North Atlantic. Keywords : iceland, palaeolimnology, chironomids, little ice age, medieval climate anomaly, north atlantic oscillatio

An exploratory study to examine intentions to adopt an evidence-based HIV linkage-to-care intervention among state health department AIDS directors in the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Widespread dissemination and implementation of evidence-based human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) linkage-to-care (LTC) interventions is essential for improving HIV-positive patients' health outcomes and reducing transmission to uninfected others. To date, however, little work has focused on identifying factors associated with intentions to adopt LTC interventions among policy makers, including city, state, and territory health department AIDS directors who play a critical role in deciding whether an intervention is endorsed, distributed, and/or funded throughout their region.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between December 2010 and February 2011, we administered an online questionnaire with state, territory, and city health department AIDS directors throughout the United States to identify factors associated with intentions to adopt an LTC intervention. Guided by pertinent theoretical frameworks, including the Diffusion of Innovations and the "push-pull" capacity model, we assessed participants' attitudes towards the intervention, perceived organizational and contextual demand and support for the intervention, likelihood of adoption given endorsement from stakeholder groups (<it>e.g</it>., academic researchers, federal agencies, activist organizations), and likelihood of enabling future dissemination efforts by recommending the intervention to other health departments and community-based organizations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Forty-four participants (67% of the eligible sample) completed the online questionnaire. Approximately one-third (34.9%) reported that they intended to adopt the LTC intervention for use in their city, state, or territory in the future. Consistent with prior, related work, these participants were classified as LTC intervention "adopters" and were compared to "nonadopters" for data analysis. Overall, adopters reported more positive attitudes and greater perceived demand and support for the intervention than did nonadopters. Further, participants varied with their intention to adopt the LTC intervention in the future depending on endorsement from different key stakeholder groups. Most participants indicated that they would support the dissemination of the intervention by recommending it to other health departments and community-based organizations.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Findings from this exploratory study provide initial insight into factors associated with public health policy makers' intentions to adopt an LTC intervention. Implications for future research in this area, as well as potential policy-related strategies for enhancing the adoption of LTC interventions, are discussed.</p

The application of sediment fingerprinting to floodplain and lake sediment cores: assumptions and uncertainties evaluated through case studies in the Nene Basin, UK

Purpose: Fine sediment has been shown to be a major cause of the degradation of lakes and rivers and, as a result, research has been directed towards the understanding of fine sediment dynamics and the minimisation of sediment inputs. The use of tracers within a sediment fingerprinting framework has become a heavily used technique to investigate the sources of fine sediment pressures. When combined with the use of historically deposited sediment, the technique provides the opportunity to reconstruct past changes to the environment. However, alterations to tracer signatures during sediment transport and storage are a major potential source of uncertainty associated with tracer use. At present, few studies have quantified the uncertainties associated with tracer use. Materials and methods: This paper investigated uncertainty by determining the differences between sediment provenance predictions obtained using lithogenic radionuclide, geochemical and mineral magnetic signatures when fingerprinting lake and floodplain sedimentary deposits. It also investigated the potential causes of the observed differences. Results and discussion: A reservoir core was fingerprinted with the least uncertainty, with tracer group predictions ∼28 % apart and a consistent down-core trend in changing sediment provenance produced. When fingerprinting an on-line lake core and four floodplain cores, differences between tracer group predictions were as large as 100 %; the down-core trends in changing sediment provenance were also different. The differences between tracer group predictions could be attributed to the organic matter content and particle size of the sediment. There was also evidence of the in-growth of bacterially derived magnetite and chemical dissolution affecting the preservation of tracer signatures. Simple data corrections for sediment organic matter content and particle size did not result in significantly greater agreement between the predictions of the different tracer groups. Likewise, the inclusions of weightings for tracer discriminatory efficiency and within-source variability had minimal effects on the fingerprinting results. Conclusions: This paper highlights the importance of tracer selection and the consideration of recognising tracer non-conservatism when using lake and floodplain sediment deposits to reconstruct anthropogenic changes to the environment and changing sediment dynamics. It was recommended that future research focus on the assessment of uncertainty using the artificial mixing of sediment source samples, the limitation of the fingerprinting to narrow particle size fractions and the development of specific particle size and organic matter correction factors for each tracer

Exploring the Ecological History of a Tropical Agroforestry Landscape Using Fossil Pollen and Charcoal Analysis from Four Sites in Western Ghats, India

Contrary to expectations, some human-modified landscapes are considered to sustain both human activities and biodiversity over the long-term. Agroforestry systems are among these landscapes where crops are planted under native shade trees. In this context, ancient agroforestry systems can provide insight into how farmers managed the landscape over time. Such insight can help to quantify the extent to which tropical forests (especially habitat-specialist trees) are responding to local and landscape-level management. Here, we extracted fossil pollen (indicator of past vegetation changes) and macroscopic charcoal (indicator of biomass burning) from four forest hollows’ sedimentary sequences in an ancient agroforestry system in Western Ghats, India. We used a mixed-modelling approach and a principal components analysis (PCA) to determine past trajectories of forest change and species composition dynamics for the last 900 years. In addition, we reconstructed the long-term forest canopy dynamics and examined the persistence of habitat-specialist trees over time. Our results show that the four sites diverged to a surprising degree in both taxa composition and dynamics. However, despite these differences, forest has persisted over 900 years under agricultural activities within agroforestry systems. This long-term analysis highlights the importance of different land-use legacies as a framework to increase the effectiveness of management across tropical agricultural lands

Spatial variability in sustainable development trajectories in South Africa:provincial level safe and just operating spaces

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represents the first globally agreed framework to address human development and environmental stewardship in an integrated way. One approach to summarising national SDG status is our “barometer for inclusive sustainable development in South Africa”. The barometer downscales global social and planetary boundaries to provide status and trends for 20 critical indicators of environmental stress and social deprivation. In this paper, we explore the sub-national heterogeneity in sustainable development indicators by creating barometers defining the ‘safe and just operating space’ for South Africa’s nine provinces. Our results show that environmental stress varies significantly and provinces need to focus on quite different issues. Although generally environmental stress is increasing, there are areas where it is decreasing, most notably, marine harvesting. Social deprivation results show more of a pattern with high levels of deprivation in employment, income and safety across the provinces, and historically disadvantaged provinces showing the most deprivation overall. Although deprivation is generally decreasing, there are notable exceptions such as food security in six provinces. Our provincial barometers and trend plots are novel in that they present comparable environmental and social data on key indicators over time for all South Africa’s provinces. They are visual tools that communicate the range of key challenges and risks that provincial governments face, and are non-specialist and accessible to a range of audiences. In addition, the paper provides a critical case study of spatial disaggregation of national data that is required for the SDGs implementation

Ecosystem Resilience and Threshold Response in the Galápagos Coastal Zone

Background: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a conservative estimate on rates of sea-level rise of 3.8 mm yr⁻¹ at the end of the 21st century, which may have a detrimental effect on ecologically important mangrove ecosystems. Understanding factors influencing the long-term resilience of these communities is critical but poorly understood. We investigate ecological resilience in a coastal mangrove community from the Galápagos Islands over the last 2700 years using three research questions: What are the 'fast and slow' processes operating in the coastal zone? Is there evidence for a threshold response? How can the past inform us about the resilience of the modern system?Methodology/Principal Findings: Palaeoecological methods (AMS radiocarbon dating, stable carbon isotopes (δ13C)) were used to reconstruct sedimentation rates and ecological change over the past 2,700 years at Diablas lagoon, Isabela, Galápagos. Bulk geochemical analysis was also used to determine local environmental changes, and salinity was reconstructed using a diatom transfer function. Changes in relative sea level (RSL) were estimated using a glacio-isostatic adjustment model. Non-linear behaviour was observed in the Diablas mangrove ecosystem as it responded to increased salinities following exposure to tidal inundations. A negative feedback was observed which enabled the mangrove canopy to accrete vertically, but disturbances may have opened up the canopy and contributed to an erosion of resilience over time. A combination of drier climatic conditions and a slight fall in RSL then resulted in a threshold response, from a mangrove community to a microbial mat.Conclusions/Significance: Palaeoecological records can provide important information on the nature of non-linear behaviour by identifying thresholds within ecological systems, and in outlining responses to 'fast and slow' environmental change between alternative stable states. This study highlights the need to incorporate a long-term ecological perspective when designing strategies for maximizing coastal resilience.</p

Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

Damage Limitation: Learning Lessons from Complaints and Appeals Staff on the Handling of Student Grievance

Against a backdrop of rising student complaints in higher education (HE) and debate about students as consumers, increasing attention is turning to institutional processes for dealing with complaints and appeals. This paper draws on a nationwide survey across UK HE to explore the unique experiences of Complaints and Appeals staff. The research provides important new insights into the perceived benefits of student complaints as well as the challenges. The findings indicate a need to change the culture around complaints to help address issues such as time taken to resolve formal complaints, expectations of students and impact on student/staff relationships. Drawing on theoretical models of service failure from the business sector, combined with a co-production model of HE, we conclude with recommendations about how complaints and appeals might be regarded as a learning opportunity leading to improved channels of communication and dissemination, as well as offering continuing professional development opportunitie