Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Chapter 2 - Stratospheric Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation

As a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effect of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as their abundances decline in the coming decades. The 2006 Assessment showed that globally averaged column ozone ceased to decline around 1996, meeting the criterion for the first stage of recovery. Ozone is expected to increase as a result of continued decrease in ODSs (second stage of recovery). This chapter discusses recent observations of ozone and ultraviolet radiation in the context of their historical records. Natural variability, observational uncertainty, and stratospheric cooling necessitate a long record in order to attribute an ozone increase to decreases in ODSs. The primary tools used in this Assessment for prediction of ozone are chemistry-climate models (CCMs). These CCMs are designed to represent the processes determining the amount of stratospheric ozone and its response to changes in ODSs and greenhouse gases. Eighteen CCMs have been recently evaluated using a variety of process-based compari-sons to measurements. The CCMs are further evaluated here by comparison of trends calculated from measurements with trends calculated from simulations designed to reproduce ozone behavior during an observing period