The Burden of Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Disease: A DELPHI Approach

Introduction: The term progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease (ILD) describes patients with fibrotic ILDs who, irrespective of the aetiology of the disease, show a progressive course of their disease despite current available (and non-licensed) treatment. Besides in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, little is known about management and the burden of patients with fibrotic ILD, particularly those with a progressive behaviour. Methods: Using the Delphi method, 40 European experts in ILD management delivered information on management of (progressive) fibrosing ILD and on the impact of the disease on patients’ quality of life (QoL) and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU). Annual costs were calculated for progressive and non-/slow-progressive fibrosing ILD for diagnosis, follow-up management, exacerbation management, and end-of-life care based on the survey data. Results: Physicians reported that progression in fibrosing ILD worsens QoL in both patients and their caregivers. Progression of fibrosing ILD was associated with a greater use of HCRU for follow-up visits and maintenance treatment compared with the non-/slow progression. The number of patients who suffered at least one acute exacerbation was reported to be more than three times higher in progressive fibrosing ILD patients than in patients with non-/slow-progressive fibrosing ILD. On average, annual estimated costs of progressive fibrosing ILD per patient were 1.8 times higher than those of the non-/slow-progressive form of the disease.

The Value of the Surprise Question to Predict One-Year Mortality in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fatal disease with a heterogeneous disease course. Timely initiation of palliative care is often lacking. The surprise question "Would you be surprised if this patient died within the next year?"is increasingly used as a clinical prognostic tool in chronic diseases but has never been evaluated in IPF. Objective: We aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the surprise question for 1-year morta

COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE)

Objectives Develop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients who present at the emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19. Design Retrospective. Setting Secondary care in four large Dutch hospitals. Participants Patients who presented at the ED and were admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. We used 5831 first-wave patients who presented between March and August 2020 for model development and 3252 second-wave patients who presented between September and December 2020 for model validation. Outcome measures We developed separate logistic regression models for in-hospital death and for need for ICU admission, both within 28 days after hospital admission. Based on prior literature, we considered quickly and objectively obtainable patient characteristics, vital parameters and blood test values as predictors. We assessed model performance by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and by calibration plots. Results Of 5831 first-wave patients, 629 (10.8%) died within 28 days after admission. ICU admission was fully recorded for 2633 first-wave patients in 2 hospitals, with 214 (8.1%) ICU admissions within 28 days. A simple model - COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE) - with age, respiratory rate, C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin and urea captured most of the ability to predict death. COPE was well calibrated and showed good discrimination for mortality in second-wave patients (AUC in four hospitals: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86); 0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.90); 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.88); 0.83 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86)). COPE was also able to identify patients at high risk of needing ICU admission in second-wave patients (AUC in two hospitals: 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.90); 0.81 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.95)). Conclusions COPE is a simple tool that is well able to predict mortality and need for ICU admission in patients who present to the ED with suspected COVID-19 and may help patients and doctors in decision making.</p

Effects of potent neutralizing antibodies from convalescent plasma in patients hospitalized for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection

In a randomized clinical trial of 86 hospitalized COVID-19 patients comparing standard care to treatment with 300mL convalescent plasma containing high titers of neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, no overall clinical benefit was observed. Using a comprehensive translational approach, we unravel the virological and immunological responses following treatment to disentangle which COVID-19 patients may benefit and should be the focus of future studies. Convalescent plasma is safe, does not improve survival, has no effect on the disease course, nor does plasma enhance viral clearance in the respiratory tract, influence SARS-CoV-2 antibody development or serum proinflammatory cytokines levels. Here, we show that the vast majority of patients already had potent neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at hospital admission and with comparable titers to carefully selected plasma donors. This resulted in the decision to terminate the trial prematurely. Treatment with convalescent plasma should be studied early in the disease course or at least preceding autologous humoral response development.</p