Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008

Lepton Flavour Violating Leptonic/Semileptonic Decays of Charged Leptons in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model

We consider the leptonic and semileptonic (SL) lepton flavour violating (LFV) decays of the charged leptons in the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM). The formalism for evaluation of branching fractions for the SL LFV charged-lepton decays with one or two pseudoscalar mesons, or one vector meson in the final state, is given. Previous amplitudes for the SL LFV charged-lepton decays in MSSM are improved, for instance the $\gamma$-penguin amplitude is corrected to assure the gauge invariance. The decays are studied not only in the model-independent formulation of the theory in the frame of MSSM, but also within the frame of the minimal supersymmetric SO(10) model within which the parameters of the MSSM are determined. The latter model gives predictions for the neutrino-Dirac Yukawa coupling matrix, once free parameters in the model are appropriately fixed to accommodate the recent neutrino oscillation data. Using this unambiguous neutrino-Dirac Yukawa couplings, we calculate the LFV leptonic and SL decay processes assuming the minimal supergravity scenario. A very detailed numerical analysis is done to constrain the MSSM parameters. Numerical results for SL LFV processes are given, for instance for tau -> e (mu) pi0, tau -> e (mu) eta, tau -> e (mu) eta', tau -> e (mu) rho0, tau -> e (mu) phi, tau -> e (mu) omega, etc.Comment: 36 pages, 3 tables, 5 .eps figure

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Scaling supernova hydrodynamics to the laboratory

Supernova (SN) 1987A focused attention on the critical role of hydrodynamic instabilities in the evolution of supernovae. To test the modeling of these instabilities, we are developing laboratory experiments of hydrodynamic mixing under conditions relevant to supernovae. Initial results were reported in J. Kane et al., Astrophys. J.478, L75 (1997) The Nova laser is used to shock two-layer targets, producing Richtmyer-Meshkov (RM) and Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instabilities at the interfaces between the layers, analogous to instabilities seen at the interfaces of SN 1987A. Because the hydrodynamics in the laser experiments at intermediate times (3-40 ns) and in SN 1987A at intermediate times (5 s-10{sup 4} s) are well described by the Euler equations, the hydrodynamics scale between the two regimes. The experiments are modeled using the hydrodynamics codes HYADES and CALE, and the supernova code PROMETHEUS, thus serving as a benchmark for PROMETHEUS. Results of the experiments and simulations are presented. Analysis of the spike and bubble velocities in the experiment using potential flow theory and a modified Ott thin shell theory is presented. A numerical study of 2D vs. 3D differences in instability growth at the O-He and He-H interface of SN 1987A, and the design for analogous laser experiments are presented. We discuss further work to incorporate more features of the SN in the experiments, including spherical geometry, multiple layers and density gradients. Past and ongoing work in laboratory and laser astrophysics is reviewed, including experimental work on supernova remnants (SNRs). A numerical study of RM instability in SNRs is presented

Scaling supernova hydrodynamics to the laboratory

Supernova (SN) 1987A focused attention on the critical role of hydrodynamic instabilities in the evolution of supernovae. To test the modeling of these instabilities, we are developing laboratory experiments of hydrodynamic mixing under conditions relevant to supernovae. Initial results were reported in J. Kane et al., Astrophys. J.478, L75 (1997) The Nova laser is used to shock two-layer targets, producing Richtmyer-Meshkov (RM) and Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instabilities at the interfaces between the layers, analogous to instabilities seen at the interfaces of SN 1987A. Because the hydrodynamics in the laser experiments at intermediate times (3-40 ns) and in SN 1987A at intermediate times (5 s-10{sup 4} s) are well described by the Euler equations, the hydrodynamics scale between the two regimes. The experiments are modeled using the hydrodynamics codes HYADES and CALE, and the supernova code PROMETHEUS, thus serving as a benchmark for PROMETHEUS. Results of the experiments and simulations are presented. Analysis of the spike and bubble velocities in the experiment using potential flow theory and a modified Ott thin shell theory is presented. A numerical study of 2D vs. 3D differences in instability growth at the O-He and He-H interface of SN 1987A, and the design for analogous laser experiments are presented. We discuss further work to incorporate more features of the SN in the experiments, including spherical geometry, multiple layers and density gradients. Past and ongoing work in laboratory and laser astrophysics is reviewed, including experimental work on supernova remnants (SNRs). A numerical study of RM instability in SNRs is presented