A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record

For the UK's longest and most complete sea level record (Newlyn), we assess extreme high waters and their temporal clustering; prompted by the 2013/2014 winter of storms and flooding. These are set into context against this almost 100-year record. We define annual periods for which storm activity and high sea levels can be compared on a year-by-year basis. Amongst the storms and high tides which affected Newlyn, the recent winter produced the largest recorded high water level (3 February 2014) and five other high water events above a 1 in 1-year return period. The large magnitude of tide and mean sea level, and the close inter-event spacings (of large return period high waters), suggests that the 2013/2014 extreme high water level "season" can be considered the most extreme on record. However, storm and sea level events may be classified in different ways. For example, in the context of sea level rise (which we calculate linearly as 1.81 ± 0.1 mm yr?1 from records between 1915 to 2014), a lower probability combination of surge and tide occurred on 29 January 1948, whilst the 1995/1996 storm surge season saw the most high waters of ? the 1 in 1-year return period. We provide a basic categorisation of the four types of extreme high water level cluster, ranging from consecutive tidal cycles to multiple years. The assessment is extended to other UK sites (with shorter sea level records and different tide-surge characteristics), which suggests 2013/2014 was particularly unusual. Further work will assess clustering mechanisms and flood system "memory"

Sums and differences of four k-th powers

We prove an upper bound for the number of representations of a positive integer $N$ as the sum of four $k$-th powers of integers of size at most $B$, using a new version of the Determinant method developed by Heath-Brown, along with recent results by Salberger on the density of integral points on affine surfaces. More generally we consider representations by any integral diagonal form. The upper bound has the form $O_{N}(B^{c/\sqrt{k}})$, whereas earlier versions of the Determinant method would produce an exponent for $B$ of order $k^{-1/3}$ in this case. Furthermore, we prove that the number of representations of a positive integer $N$ as a sum of four $k$-th powers of non-negative integers is at most $O_{\epsilon}(N^{1/k+2/k^{3/2}+\epsilon})$ for $k \geq 3$, improving upon bounds by Wisdom.Comment: 18 pages. Mistake corrected in the statement of Theorem 1.2. To appear in Monatsh. Mat

Question-answering, relevance feedback and summarisation : TREC-9 interactive track report

In this paper we report on the effectiveness of query-biased summaries for a question-answering task. Our summarisation system presents searchers with short summaries of documents, composed of a series of highly matching sentences extracted from the documents. These summaries are also used as evidence for a query expansion algorithm to test the use of summaries as evidence for interactive and automatic query expansion

Kinetics of acute hepatitis B virus infection in humans

Using patient data from a unique single source outbreak of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, we have characterized the kinetics of acute HBV infection by monitoring viral turnover in the serum during the late incubation and clinical phases of the disease in humans. HBV replicates rapidly with minimally estimated doubling times ranging between 2.2 and 5.8 d (mean 3.7 ± 1.5 d). After a peak viral load in serum of nearly 1010 HBV DNA copies/ml is attained, clearance of HBV DNA follows a two or three phase decay pattern with an initial rapid decline characterized by mean half-life (t1/2) of 3.7 ± 1.2 d, similar to the t1/2 observed in the noncytolytic clearance of covalently closed circular DNA for other hepadnaviruses. The final phase of virion clearance occurs at a variable rate (t1/2 of 4.8 to 284 d) and may relate to the rate of loss of infected hepatocytes. Free virus has a mean t1/2 of at most 1.2 ± 0.6 d. We estimate a peak HBV production rate of at least 1013 virions/day and a maximum production rate of an infected hepatocyte of 200–1,000 virions/day, on average. At this peak rate of virion production we estimate that every possible single and most double mutations would be created each day