Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from Canadian dairy farms and mitigation options: An updated review

This review examined methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) mitigation strategies for Canadian dairy farms. The primary focus was research conducted in Canada and cold climatic regions with similar dairy systems. Meta-analyses were conducted to assess the impact of a given strategy when sufficient data were available. Results indicated that options to reduce enteric CH4 from dairy cows were increasing the dietary starch content and dietary lipid supplementation. Replacing barley or alfalfa silage with corn silage with higher starch content decreased enteric CH4 per unit of milk by 6%. Increasing dietary lipids from 3% to 6% of dry matter (DM) reduced enteric CH4 yield by 9%. Strategies such as nitrate supplementation and 3-nitrooxypropanol additive indicated potential for reducing enteric CH4 by about 30% but require extensive research on toxicology and consumer acceptance. Strategies to reduce emissions from manure are anaerobic digestion, composting, solid-liquid separation, covering slurry storage and flaring CH4, and reducing methanogen inoculum by complete emptying of slurry storage at spring application. These strategies have potential to reduce emissions from manure by up to 50%. An integrated approach of combining strategies through diet and manure management is necessary for significant GHG mitigation and lowering carbon footprint of milk produced in Canada

A mathematical model for determining age-specific diabetes incidence and prevalence using body mass index

PurposeFew models have been developed specifically for the epidemiology of diabetes. Diabetes incidence is critical in predicting diabetes prevalence. However, reliable estimates of disease incidence rates are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to propose a mathematical framework for predicting diabetes prevalence using incidence rates estimated within the model using body mass index (BMI) data.MethodsA generic mechanistic model was proposed considering birth, death, migration, aging, and diabetes incidence dynamics. Diabetes incidence rates were determined within the model using their relationships with BMI represented by the Hill equation. The Hill equation parameters were estimated by fitting the model to National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2010 data and used to predict diabetes prevalence pertaining to each NHANES survey year. The prevalences were also predicted using diabetes incidence rates calculated from the NHANES data themselves. The model was used to estimate death rate parameters and to quantify sensitivities of prevalence to each population dynamic.ResultsThe model using incidence rate estimates from the Hill equations successfully predicted diabetes prevalence of younger, middle-aged, and older adults (prediction error, 20.0%, 9.64%, and 7.58% respectively). Diabetes prevalence was positively associated with diabetes incidence in every age group, but the associations among younger adults were stronger. In contrast, diabetes prevalence was more sensitive to death rates in older adults than younger adults. Both diabetes incidence and prevalence were strongly sensitive to BMI at younger ages, but sensitivity gradually declined as age progressed. Younger and middle aged adults diagnosed with diabetes had at least a two-fold greater risk of death than their nondiabetic counterparts. Nondiabetic older adults were found to be under slightly higher death risk (0.079) than those diagnosed with diabetes (0.073).ConclusionsThe proposed model predicts diagnosed diabetes incidence and prevalence reasonably well using the link between BMI and diabetes development risk. Ethnic group and gender-specific model parameter estimates could further improve predictions. Model prediction accuracy and applicability need to be comprehensively evaluated with independent data sets

Development of mathematical models to predict volume and nutrient composition of fresh manure from lactating Holstein cows.

Organic compounds in dairy manure undergo a series of reactions producing pollutants such as ammonia and methane. Because various organic compounds have different reaction rates, the emissions could be accurately determined if amounts and concentrations of individual nutrients in manure are known. A set of empirical models were developed for predicting faecal and urinary water, carbon (C), nitrogen (N), acid detergent fibre and neutral detergent fibre output (kg/day) from lactating Holstein cows. Dietary nutrient contents, milk yield and composition, bodyweight, age and days in milk were used with or without dry matter intake (DMI) as potential predictor variables. Multi-collinearity, goodness of fit, model complexity, and random study and animal effects were taken into account during model development, which used 742 measured faecal or urinary nutrient output observations (kg/day). The models were evaluated with an independent dataset (n = 364). When DMI was used as a predictor variable, the models predicted faecal and urinary nutrient outputs successfully with root mean square prediction error as a percentage of average observed values (RMSPE%) ranging from 9.1% to 20.7%. All the predictions except urine output had RMSPE% ranging from 18.3% to 24.6% when DMI was not used. The nutrient output predictions were in reasonable agreement with observed values throughout the data range (systematic bias \u3c14% of total bias). Fresh manure C : N ratio predictions were acceptable (RMSPE% = 14.3–15.2%) although the systematic bias were notable (17.1–20.7% of total bias). The models could be integrated successfully with process-based manure or soil models to assess nutrient transformation in dairy production systems