Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law

We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black swans

Non-linear evolution in CCFM: The interplay between coherence and saturation

We solve the CCFM equation numerically in the presence of a boundary condition which effectively incorporates the non-linear dynamics. We retain the full dependence of the unintegrated gluon distribution on the coherence scale, and extract the saturation momentum. The resulting saturation scale is a function of both rapidity and the coherence momentum. In Deep Inelastic Scattering this will lead to a dependence of the saturation scale on the photon virtuality in addition to the usual x-Bjorken dependence. At asymptotic energies the interplay between the perturbative non-linear physics, and that of the QCD coherence, leads to an interesting and novel dynamics where the saturation momentum itself eventually saturates. We also investigate various implementations of the "non-Sudakov" form factor. It is shown that the non-linear dynamics leads to almost identical results for different form factors. Finally, different choices of the scale of the running coupling are analyzed and implications for the phenomenology are discussed.Comment: 37 pages, 21 figure

Comparative Immunogenicity of Na-GST-1 Human Hookworm Vaccine with Synthetic Glucopyranosyl Lipid Adjuvant (GLA) in BALB/c Mice

More than 740 million people worldwide are infected with Hookworm. Hookworm infection is most prevalent in the poorest of the poor populations of the world, and has serious health effects. Hookworm infection causes blood loss leading to iron deficiency anemia and protein energy malnutrition, which results in a compromised immune response. Consequently, the target human population suffers from an increased susceptibility to infectious diseases including hookworm infection. We have developed recombinant adult hookworm vaccines against hookworm infection to break this vicious cycle. Toll-like receptor (TLR) 4 agonist are known to boost immune response in healthy and immunocompromised individuals. We believe that co-injecting Synthetic Glucopyranosyl Lipid Adjuvant (GLA) a novel TLR-4 agonist with adult hookworm Na-GST-1 + Alhydrogel® vaccine will produce a robust and sustainable immune response in this target human population. Here, we discuss the rationale of using GLA, study designs and the results of the pre-clinical immunogenicity studies of the Human Hookworm Na-GST-1 + Alhydrogel® Vaccine in BALB/c mice with and without GLA. We conclude that, GLA enhanced the immunogenicity of co-administered adult hookworm Na-GST-1 + Alhydrogel® vaccine, producing a strong anti-Na-GST-1 IgG response. These preclinical results lay the foundation of co-administrating GLA with adult hookworm Na-GST-1 + Alhydrogel® vaccine in Phase 1 clinical trial in Brazil

The unintegrated gluon distribution from the CCFM equation

The gluon distribution f(x, k_t^2,mu^2), unintegrated over the transverse momentum k_t of the gluon, satisfies the angular-ordered CCFM equation which interlocks the dependence on the scale k_t with the scale \mu of the probe. We show how, to leading logarithmic accuracy, the equation can be simplified to a single scale problem. In particular we demonstrate how to determine the two-scale unintegrated distribution f(x,k_t^2,mu^2) from knowledge of the integrated gluon obtained from a unified scheme embodying both BFKL and DGLAP evolution.Comment: 16 pages LaTeX, 3 eps figure

The World-Trade Web: Topological Properties, Dynamics, and Evolution

This paper studies the statistical properties of the web of import-export relationships among world countries using a weighted-network approach. We analyze how the distributions of the most important network statistics measuring connectivity, assortativity, clustering and centrality have co-evolved over time. We show that all node-statistic distributions and their correlation structure have remained surprisingly stable in the last 20 years -- and are likely to do so in the future. Conversely, the distribution of (positive) link weights is slowly moving from a log-normal density towards a power law. We also characterize the autoregressive properties of network-statistics dynamics. We find that network-statistics growth rates are well-proxied by fat-tailed densities like the Laplace or the asymmetric exponential-power. Finally, we find that all our results are reasonably robust to a few alternative, economically-meaningful, weighting schemes.Comment: 44 pages, 39 eps figure

Potency Testing for NTD Vaccines: Determining Relative Potency for the Na-GST-1 Human Hookworm Vaccine

Over the next decade, a new generation of vaccines will target the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) . The goal of most NTD vaccines will be to reduce the morbidity and decrease the chronic debilitating nature of these often-forgotten infections - outcomes that are hard to measure in the traditional potency-testing paradigm . The absence of measurable correlates of protection, a lack of permissive animal models for lethal infection, and a lack of clinical indications that do not include the induction of sterilizing immunity required us to reconsider the traditional bioassay methods for determining vaccine potency . Owing to these limitations, potency assay design for NTD vaccines will increasingly rely on a paradigm where potency testing is one among many tools to ensure that a manufacturing process yields a product of consistent quality . This potency test is a bioassay using BALB/c mice, which evaluates the immunogenicity of the vaccine at set time interval post manufacture . Herein, we discuss the results of 12 month potency testing of Necator americanus-glutathione-S- transferase-1 (Na-GST-1) vaccine . The Effective Dose 50 (ED50), with its 95% fiducial limits (FL) for each time point was determined along with the Relative Potency with its 95% FL for 3, 6, 9 and 12 months post manufacture . Potency testing has shown that storage at 4° C decreases the ED50 and increases the relative potency of Na-GST-1 vaccine . We proposed that the change in ED50 and relative potency coincide with higher affinity binding of the Na-GST-1 to the Alhydrogel® that occurred during storage at 4° C . These preclinical results lay the foundation for moving forward with Phase 1 clinical trial in Brazil

An experimental evaluation of the impact of a Payment for Environmental Services programme on deforestation

n/