Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups

Members of professional groups were much more likely to respond to a mail survey than nonmembers who were also experts in the area (43.7% versus 13.7%). A one-dollar (U.S.) prepaid monetary incentive increased the response rates, and it was as effective for members as for nonmembers (gains of 18.6% and 15.3%, respectively). Surprisingly, the U.S. dollar monetary incentive had a greater effect on foreign than U.S. response rates (gains of 32.6% and 12.9%, respectively).monetary incentives, marketing

Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods

Two studies were conducted to examine expert opinions of criteria used to select forecasting techniques. In Study One, while accuracy was a dominant criterion, the ratings of five of thirteen criteria varied by the role of the forecaster. Researchers rated accuracy relatively higher than did practitioners, educators or decision-makers. Decision makers rated implementation-related criteria, such as ease criteria, relatively higher than the other groups. In Study Two, forecasting experts significantly varied their ratings on six of seven criteria according to situations. Other criteria were often as important or more important than accuracy, especially when the situation involved making many forecasts. In general, there was much agreement across roles and across situations that accuracy was the most important criterion, but other criteria were rated as being almost as important. In particular, factors related to implementation, such as ease of interpretation and ease of use, were highly rated

Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups

Members of professional groups were much more likely to respond to a mail survey than nonmembers who were also experts in the area (43.7% versus 13.7%). A one-dollar (U.S.)prepaid monetary incentive increased the response rates, and it was as effective for members as for nonmembers (gains of 18.6% and 15.3%, respectively). Surprisingly, the U.S. dollar monetary incentive had a greater effect on foreign than U.S. response rates (gains of 32.6% and 12.9%, respectively)

Potential Diffusion of Expert Systems in Forecasting

We drew upon findings from the diffusion literature to assess the prospects for the diffusion of expert systems in forecasting. Forecasters judged potential adoption of expert systems in relation to two techniques that had been widely adopted in the past, Box-Jenkins and scenarios. They also rated each technique on seven innovation characteristics: relative advantage, compatibility, divisibility, communicability, complexity, product risks, and psychological risks. The respondents were classified by four forecaster roles: researcher, educator, practitioner, and decision maker. In general, the expected probabilities of adoption for expert systems were slightly higher than for the two other techniques. Additionally, the respondents rated expert systems nearly equivalent to Box-Jenkins and scenarios on relative advantage and communicability. In relating the probabilities of adoption to the characteristic ratings, the groups perceived significant negative psychological and product risks with expert systems. However the experts, especially practitioners and decision makers, rated expert systems positive on compatibility, divisibility, and communicability, so it may be desirable to ensure that these positive traits are stressed with potential adopters, especially researchers and educators. © 2001 Elsevier Science In

Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series

Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters\u27 expectations about what will happen to a time series in the future. Contrary to the common assumption for extrapolation, time series are not always subject to consistent forces that point in the same direction. Some are affected by conflicting causal forces; we refer to these as complex times series. It would seem that forecasting these times series would be easier if one could decompose the series to eliminate the effects of the conflicts. Given forecasts subject to high uncertainty, we hypothesized that a time series could be effectively decomposed under two conditions: 1) if domain knowledge can be used to structure the problem so that causal forces are consistent for two or more component series, and 2) when it is possible to obtain relatively accurate forecasts for each component. Forecast accuracy for the components can be assessed by testing how well they can be forecast on early hold-out data. When such data are not available, historical variability may be an adequate substitute. We tested decomposition by causal forces on 12 complex annual time series for automobile accidents, airline accidents, personal computer sales, airline revenues, and cigarette production. The length of these series ranged from 16 years for airline revenues to 56 years for highway safety data. We made forecasts for one to ten horizons, obtaining 800 forecasts through successive updating. For nine series in which the conditions were completely or partially met, the forecast error (MdAPE) was reduced by more than half. For three series in which the conditions were not met, decomposition by causal forces had little effect on accuracy

Attentional Processing of Food Cues in Overweight and Obese Individuals

The incentive sensitization model of obesity hypothesizes that obese individuals in the western world have acquired an enhanced attention bias to food cues, because of the overwhelming exposure to food. This article gives an overview of recent studies regarding attention to food and obesity. In general, an interesting approach-avoidance pattern in food-related attention has been found in overweight/obese individuals in a number of studies. However, it should be noted that study results are contradictory. This might be due to methodological issues, such as the choice of attention measurements, possibly tapping different underlying components of information processing. Although attention research is challenging, researchers are encouraged to further explore important issues, such as the exact circumstances in which obese persons demonstrate enhanced attention to food, the directional relationship between food-related attention bias, overeating and weight gain, and the underlying involvement of the reward system. Knowledge on these issues could help improve treatment programs

A meta-analysis of the relationship between brain dopamine receptors and obesity: a matter of changes in behavior rather than food addiction?

Addiction to a wide range of substances of abuse has been suggested to reflect a ‘Reward Deficiency Syndrome'. That is, drugs are said to stimulate the reward mechanisms so intensely that, to compensate, the population of dopamine D(2) receptors (DD2R) declines. The result is that an increased intake is necessary to experience the same degree of reward. Without an additional intake, cravings and withdrawal symptoms result. A suggestion is that food addiction, in a similar manner to drugs of abuse, decrease DD2R. The role of DD2R in obesity was therefore examined by examining the association between body mass index (BMI) and the Taq1A polymorphism, as the A1 allele is associated with a 30–40% lower number of DD2R, and is a risk factor for drug addiction. If a lower density of DD2R is indicative of physical addiction, it was argued that if food addiction occurs, those with the A1 allele should have a higher BMI. A systematic review found 33 studies that compared the BMI of those who did and did not have the A1 allele. A meta-analysis of the studies compared those with (A1/A1 and A1/A2) or without (A2/A2) the A1 allele; no difference in BMI was found (standardized mean difference 0.004 (s.e. 0.021), variance 0.000, Z=0.196, P<0.845). It was concluded that there was no support for a reward deficiency theory of food addiction. In contrast, there are several reports that those with the A1 allele are less able to benefit from an intervention that aimed to reduce weight, possibly a reflection of increased impulsivity