Survival and coexistence for a multitype contact process

We study the ergodic theory of a multitype contact process with equal death rates and unequal birth rates on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice and regular trees. We prove that for birth rates in a certain interval there is coexistence on the tree, which by a result of Neuhauser is not possible on the lattice. We also prove a complete convergence result when the larger birth rate falls outside of this interval.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOP422 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The stepping stone model. II: Genealogies and the infinite sites model

This paper extends earlier work by Cox and Durrett, who studied the coalescence times for two lineages in the stepping stone model on the two-dimensional torus. We show that the genealogy of a sample of size n is given by a time change of Kingman's coalescent. With DNA sequence data in mind, we investigate mutation patterns under the infinite sites model, which assumes that each mutation occurs at a new site. Our results suggest that the spatial structure of the human population contributes to the haplotype structure and a slower than expected decay of genetic correlation with distance revealed by recent studies of the human genome.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051604000000701 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Cutoff for the noisy voter model

Given a continuous time Markov Chain $\{q(x,y)\}$ on a finite set $S$, the associated noisy voter model is the continuous time Markov chain on $\{0,1\}^S$, which evolves in the following way: (1) for each two sites $x$ and $y$ in $S$, the state at site $x$ changes to the value of the state at site $y$ at rate $q(x,y)$; (2) each site rerandomizes its state at rate 1. We show that if there is a uniform bound on the rates $\{q(x,y)\}$ and the corresponding stationary distributions are almost uniform, then the mixing time has a sharp cutoff at time $\log|S|/2$ with a window of order 1. Lubetzky and Sly proved cutoff with a window of order 1 for the stochastic Ising model on toroids; we obtain the special case of their result for the cycle as a consequence of our result. Finally, we consider the model on a star and demonstrate the surprising phenomenon that the time it takes for the chain started at all ones to become close in total variation to the chain started at all zeros is of smaller order than the mixing time.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AAP1108 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

On the convergence of densities of finite voter models to the Wright-Fisher diffusion

We study voter models defined on large sets. Through a perspective emphasizing the martingale property of voter density processes, we prove that in general, their convergence to the Wright-Fisher diffusion only involves certain averages of the voter models over a small number of spatial locations. This enables us to identify suitable mixing conditions on the underlying voting kernels, one of which may just depend on their eigenvalues in some contexts, to obtain the convergence of density processes. Our examples show that these conditions are satisfied by a large class of voter models on growing finite graphs

A Branching Process for Virus Survival

Quasispecies theory predicts that there is a critical mutation probability above which a viral population will go extinct. Above this threshold the virus loses the ability to replicate the best adapted genotype, leading to a population composed of low replicating mutants that is eventually doomed. We propose a new branching model that shows that this is not necessarily so. That is, a population composed of ever changing mutants may survive

Voter Model Perturbations and Reaction Diffusion Equations

We consider particle systems that are perturbations of the voter model and show that when space and time are rescaled the system converges to a solution of a reaction diffusion equation in dimensions $d \ge 3$. Combining this result with properties of the PDE, some methods arising from a low density super-Brownian limit theorem, and a block construction, we give general, and often asymptotically sharp, conditions for the existence of non-trivial stationary distributions, and for extinction of one type. As applications, we describe the phase diagrams of three systems when the parameters are close to the voter model: (i) a stochastic spatial Lotka-Volterra model of Neuhauser and Pacala, (ii) a model of the evolution of cooperation of Ohtsuki, Hauert, Lieberman, and Nowak, and (iii) a continuous time version of the non-linear voter model of Molofsky, Durrett, Dushoff, Griffeath, and Levin. The first application confirms a conjecture of Cox and Perkins and the second confirms a conjecture of Ohtsuki et al in the context of certain infinite graphs. An important feature of our general results is that they do not require the process to be attractive.Comment: 106 pages, 7 figure