The Co-Evolution of Sustainable Development and Environmental Justice: Cooperation, Then Competition, Then Conflict

This article explores sustainable development and environmental justice as potentially conflicting policy goals. Sustainable development includes equity as one of its five dimensions (in addition to environment, economy, time, and space), whereas environmental justice focuses principally on equity. Over time there is likely to be an increasing number of contexts in which sustainability-based policy solutions do not satisfy environmental justice advocates

Endangered Species Act Innovations in the Post-Babbittonian Era—Are There Any?

One of the mysteries of environmental policy in the Bush Administration will be how and why it squandered an opportunity to continue market-based administrative reforms of the Endangered Species Act begun, ironically, in the Clinton Administration under the direction of then Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbitt. This article traces the momentum built for reform in the Babbittonian era and examines what has not happened since then

Anisotropy of the Microwave Sky at 90 GHz: Results from Python II

We report on additional observations of degree scale anisotropy at 90~GHz from the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station in Antarctica. Observations during the first season with the Python instrument yielded a statistically significant sky signal; in this paper we report the confirmation of that signal with data taken in the second year, and on results from an interleaving set of fields.Comment: 10 pages, plus 2 figures. Postscript and uufiles versions available via anonymous ftp at ftp://astro.uchicago.edu/pub/astro/ruhl/pyI

Why have economic reforms in Mexico not generated growth?

Following its opening to trade and foreign investment in the mid-1980s, Mexico’s economic growth has been modest at best, particularly in comparison with that of China. Comparing these countries and reviewing the literature, we conclude that the relation between openness and growth is not a simple one. Using standard trade theory, we find that Mexico has gained from trade, and by some measures, more so than China. We sketch out a theory in which developing countries can grow faster than the United States by reforming. As a country becomes richer, this sort of catch-up becomes more difficult. Absent continuing reforms, Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico’s real GDP per working-age person.

How Important is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?

We examine the bilateral trade patterns of countries involved in significant trade liberalizations using detailed data on the value of trade flows by commodity. We find a striking relationship between a good's pre-liberalization share in trade and its growth subsequent to liberalization. The goods that were traded the least before the liberalization account for a disproportionate share in trade following the reduction of trade barriers. The set of goods that accounted for only 10 percent of trade before the liberalization may account for as much as 40 percent of trade following the liberalization. This new finding cannot be accounted for by the standard models of trade, which rely on increases in previously traded goods to produce trade growth. We modify the standard Dornbusch-Fischer-Samuelson model of Ricardian trade to provide a model capable of delivering these new facts. Our specification improves on previous Ricardian models by providing a technology process that can be calibrated using data on intra-industry tradeextensive margin, trade liberalization, Ricardian model

Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?

International trade is frequently thought of as a production technology in which the inputs are exports and the outputs are imports. Exports are transformed into imports at the rate of the price of exports relative to the price of imports: the reciprocal of the terms of trade. Cast this way, a change in the terms of trade acts as a productivity shock. Or does it? In this paper, we show that this line of reasoning cannot work in standard models. Starting with a simple model and then generalizing, we show that changes in the terms of trade have no first-order effect on productivity when output is measured as chain-weighted real gross domestic product. The terms of trade do affect real income and consumption in a country, and we show how measures of real income change with the terms of trade at business cycle frequencies and during financial crises.

How important is the new goods margin in international trade?

We propose a methodology for studying changes in bilateral trade due to countries exporting goods that they did not export previously or exported only in small quantities. Applying this methodology to country pairs that undergo trade liberalization and to pairs in which one of the countries undergoes significant structural transformation, we find large increases on this extensive—or new goods—margin. Looking at country pairs with no major trade policy change or structural change, however, we find little or no increases on the extensive margin. Studying time series on trade by commodity, we find that data from before 1988 and 1989, when most major trading countries moved to the Harmonized System, are not compatible with data from afterward.International trade ; Free trade

Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate

A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994?95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.Financial crises

The Arrow of the Law in Modern Administrative States: Using Complexity Theory to Reveal the Diminishing Returns and Increasing Risks the Burgeoning of Law Poses to Society

This article is the third in my series of articles exploring the application of complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory to legal systems. Building on the model outlined in the first two installments (in the Duke and Vanderbilt law reviews), this work examines the arrow or direction of the legal system in the context of the administrative state. Drawing from diverse work such as Burke\u27s study of history\u27s nonlinearity and Tainter\u27s classic study of the collapse of complex civilizations, we argue that the administrative state is becoming too resource intensive and burdened by a proliferation of rules