Transitions in a globalising world

The increasing complexity of our global society means that sustainable development cannot be addressed from a single perspective or scientific discipline. By using the concept of transitions, we examine current and future tensions between welfare, well-being and the environment, and focus on four major issues that are of global importance: two of our key natural resources, water and biodiversity; the health of human populations; and the developments related to global tourism. In our global assessment we base ourselves on the most recent scenario efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future developments are explored along the lines of four development paths (scenario groups), defined along two dimensions (global versus regional dynamics and emphasising economic objectives versus environmental and equity objectives

Combining integrated river modelling and agent based social simulation for river management; The case study of the Grensmaas project

In this paper we present a coupled Integrated River Model – Agent Based Social Simulation model (IRM-ABSS) for river management. The models represent the case of the ongoing river engineering project “Grensmaas”. In the ABSS model stakeholders are represented as computer agents negotiating a river management strategy. Their negotiating behaviour is derived from the so-called Theory of Reasoned Action. The Integrated River Model represents stakeholder knowledge by describing possible long-term impacts of river management options such as broadening, floodplain lowering, and dike building. The computer agents are allowed to specify values for a set of ‘uncertain parameters’ in the IRM for representing subjective stakeholder knowledge. We show how the coupled model framework can aid to assess the robustness of river management strategies, both with respect to environmental uncertainty and societal support

Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support

The aim of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment. It focuses on the uncertainty perceived from the point of view of those providing information to support policy decisions (i.e., the modellers’ view on uncertainty) – uncertainty regarding the analytical outcomes and conclusions of the decision support exercise. Within the regulatory and management sciences, there is neither commonly shared terminology nor full agreement on a typology of uncertainties. Our aim is to synthesise a wide variety of contributions on uncertainty in model-based decision support in order to provide an interdisciplinary theoretical framework for systematic uncertainty analysis. To that end we adopt a general definition of uncertainty as being any deviation from the unachievable ideal of completely deterministic knowledge of the relevant system. We further propose to discriminate among three dimensions of uncertainty: location, level and nature of uncertainty, and we harmonise existing typologies to further detail the concepts behind these three dimensions of uncertainty.We propose an uncertainty matrix as a heuristic tool to classify and report the various dimensions of uncertainty, thereby providing a conceptual framework for better communication among analysts as well as between them and policymakers and stakeholders. Understanding the various dimensions of uncertainty helps in identifying, articulating, and prioritising critical uncertainties, which is a crucial step to more adequate acknowledgement and treatment of uncertainty in decision support endeavours and more focused research on complex, inherently uncertain, policy issues

Response to "To what extent, and how, might uncertainty be defined" by Norgon, Brown, and Mysiak

In a previous issue of Integrated Assessment (Vol. 4, No. 1), we proposed an uncertainty analysis framework, the aim of which was to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities, such as policy analysis, integrated assessment, and risk assessment. In the current issue, Norton, et al. present a critique and evaluation of the framework. This Disciplinary Perspective responds to their critique

Societal Innovation: between dream and reality lies complexity

Jan Rotmans (1961) is one of the founders of Integrated Assessment (IA), and has outstanding experience in IA modeling, scenario-building, uncertainty management and transition management. During the past twenty years he has led a diversity of innovative projects in the field of climate change, global change, sustainable development and transitions and system innovations. He is founder and director of the International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) (1998) at Maastricht University. Since 2004 he is a full professor in Transitions and Transition Management at Erasmus University Rotterdam in the Netherlands, where he founded the DRIFT-institute: Dutch Research Institute For Transitions. He is vice-president of The Integrated Assessment Society (TIAS), and founder and director of the Dutch Knowledge Network on System Innovations and Transitions (KSI). Jan Rotmans is founder of two scientific journals, Environmental Modeling and Assessment and Integrated Assessment, and has published ten books and more than 150 peer-reviewed scientific articles in journals and books in the fields of environment, sustainability, governance, transitions and system innovations.There are no easy, off-the-shelf solutions for persistent societal problems, because these are caused by fundamental flaws in our societal systems. Such systemic errors demand radical changes in our thinking and actions, i.e. transitions and system innovations. Transitions require a long period (one to two generations), and take time, patience, money, confidence, but also courage, daring and perseverance to gain the upper hand over various types of resistance. Research into transitions is by definition multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary. For this we need knowledge and experience from systems analysis, social administration, history, innovation science, economics, business administration and technology. The nature of research into transitions is fundamental, explorative, creative and practical. A conceptual framework for research into transitions is presented that consists of four interlinked conceptual building blocks, which in turn provide an outline of a transition theory in its embryonic stages. These concepts are rooted in common notions from complexity theory, new forms of governance and social theory. Central here is the concept of transition management, for which a new management framework is developed. Transition management is an attempt to tackle persistent stubborn problems by steering them in a more sustainable direction, through a visionary, cyclical process of putting issues on the agenda, learning, orchestrating and experimenting. Not based on management and control but through clever, subtle changes and adjustments at several levels concurrently. Transition management is a very promising management concept that can initially be applied to a wide range of complex societal problems: from health care to energy provision, and from social security to mobility. Transition management can also be applied to complex processes of change in a business context.Voor hardnekkige maatschappelijke problemen bestaan geen pasklare oplossingen. Deze zijn het gevolg van weeffouten in onze maatschappelijke stelsels. Deze systeemfouten vergen radicale veranderingen in ons denken en handelen: transities en systeeminnovaties. Transities vergen een lange periode (1 à 2 generaties), en kosten tijd, geduld, geld, vertrouwen, maar ook moed, durf en doorzettingsvermogen om verschillende soorten weerstand te overwinnen. Onderzoek naar transities is per definitie multi-en interdisciplinair, waarbij kennis nodig is vanuit de systeemkunde, bestuurskunde, geschiedenis, innovatiewetenschappen, economie, bedrijfskunde en techniek. Transitieonderzoek is zowel fundamenteel, exploratief, ontwerpend en praktisch van aard. Een conceptueel kader voor transitieonderzoek wordt gepresenteerd, dat bestaat uit een viertal samenhangende conceptuele bouwstenen, die de contouren vormen van een transitietheorie in wording. Deze concepten zijn geworteld in gemeenschappelijke noties uit de complexiteitstheorie, nieuwe vormen van governance en de sociale theorie. Centraal hierin staat het concept van transitiemanagement, waarvoor een nieuw sturingsraamwerk is ontwikkeld. Transitiemanagement beoogt hardnekkige problemen bij te sturen in een meer duurzame richting, via een visionair, cyclisch proces van agenderen, leren, instrumenteren en experimenteren. Niet op basis van controle en beheersing, maar via slim, subtiel schakelen en bijsturen op meerdere niveaus. Transitiemanagement is een veelbelovend sturingsconcept wat in beginsel toepasbaar is op tal van complexe maatschappelijke problemen: van gezondheidszorg tot energievoorziening, en van sociale zekerheid tot mobiliteit. Ook in de bedrijfscontext kan transitiemanagement worden toegepast op complexe veranderingsprocessen

Assessing the Dutch energy transition policy: how does it deal with dilemmas of managing transitions?

ABSTRACT In the Netherlands, the national government is committed towards altering the systems of energy, transport and agriculture in the name of sustainable development. A process of deliberation and change was started\xe2\x80\x94aimed at achieving \xe2\x80\x98transitions\xe2\x80\x99\xe2\x80\x94using a model of transition management. This paper examines how the new arrangements of governance for energy transition deal with six problems of steering: ambivalence about goals, uncertainty about cause\xe2\x80\x93effect relations, distributed power of control, political myopia, determination of short-term steps for long-term change and the danger of lock-in to new systems. The Dutch experience shows that transition management is applied in ways different from the original model (established players play a too great role) but it appears a useful model of reflexive governance, combining advantages of incremental politics with those of planning. It helps to orientate innovation policy and sectoral policies to sustainable development goals and to exploit business interests in system innovations in a prudent manner

Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers

Contribution of bone marrow-derived cells to in situ engineered tissue capsules in a rat model of chronic kidney disease

Nephrolog