Assessing Human Error Against a Benchmark of Perfection

An increasing number of domains are providing us with detailed trace data on human decisions in settings where we can evaluate the quality of these decisions via an algorithm. Motivated by this development, an emerging line of work has begun to consider whether we can characterize and predict the kinds of decisions where people are likely to make errors. To investigate what a general framework for human error prediction might look like, we focus on a model system with a rich history in the behavioral sciences: the decisions made by chess players as they select moves in a game. We carry out our analysis at a large scale, employing datasets with several million recorded games, and using chess tablebases to acquire a form of ground truth for a subset of chess positions that have been completely solved by computers but remain challenging even for the best players in the world. We organize our analysis around three categories of features that we argue are present in most settings where the analysis of human error is applicable: the skill of the decision-maker, the time available to make the decision, and the inherent difficulty of the decision. We identify rich structure in all three of these categories of features, and find strong evidence that in our domain, features describing the inherent difficulty of an instance are significantly more powerful than features based on skill or time.Comment: KDD 2016; 10 page

Three independently deleted regions at chromosome arm 16q in human prostate cancer: allelic loss at 16q24.1–q24.2 is associated with aggressive behaviour of the disease, recurrent growth, poor differentiation of the tumour and poor prognosis for the patient

Loss of heterozygosity at chromosome arm 16q is a frequent event in human prostate cancer. In this study, loss of heterozygosity at 16q was studied in 44 prostate cancer patients exhibiting various clinical features. Fifteen polymorphic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) markers were used to identify the separately deleted areas and the findings were compared with clinicopathological variables and 5-year survival of the patients. The results indicated that there are at least three independently deleted regions at 16q. Allelic losses at the central and distal areas were associated significantly with aggressive behaviour of the disease (16q24.1–q24.2, P< 0.01, and 16q24.3–qter, P< 0.05), and the central area of deletion was further significantly associated with poorly differentiated tumour cells (P< 0.05) and with recurrent (P< 0.01) growth of the tumour. During the follow-up period, 28% of the patients initially with M0 disease developed distant metastases. Of the patients showing allelic loss at 16q24.1–q24.2, distant metastasis were found in 45% during the 5-year follow-up period, and 31% of the patients showing loss at 16q21.1 also developed distant metastases. After the 5-year follow-up period, 14 (32%) of the patients remained alive, whereas 19 (43%) had died because of their prostate cancer. The overall survival rate of the patients showing allelic loss at 16q21.1 or 16q24.1–q24.2 was significantly lower than that of the patients with retained heterozygosity. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Risk factors for prosthetic joint infections following total hip arthroplasty based on 33,337 hips in the Finnish Arthroplasty Register from 2014 to 2018

Background and purpose - Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a devastating complication and more information on risk factors for PJI is required to find measures to prevent infections. Therefore, we assessed risk factors for PJI after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) in a large patient cohort. Patients and methods - We analyzed 33,337 primary THAs performed between May 2014 and January 2018 based on the Finnish Arthroplasty Register (FAR). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for first PJI revision operation using 25 potential patient- and surgical-related risk factors as covariates. Results - 350 primary THAs were revised for the first time due to PJI during the study period. The hazard ratios for PJI revision in multivariable analysis were 2.0 (CI 1.3-3.2) for ASA class II and 3.2 (2.0-5.1) for ASA class III-IV compared with ASA class I, 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for bleeding > 500 mL compared with 120 minutes compared with 45-59 minutes, and 2.6 (1.4-4.9) for simultaneous bilateral operation. In the univariable analysis, hazard ratios for PJI revision were 2.3 (1.7-3.3) for BMI of 31-35 and 5.0 (3.5-7.1) for BMI of > 35 compared with patients with BMI of 21-25. Interpretation - We found several modifiable risk factors associated with increased PJI revision risk after THA to which special attention should be paid preoperatively. In particular, high BMI may be an even more prominent risk factor for PJI than previously assessed.Peer reviewe

A three-feature prediction model for metastasis-free survival after surgery of localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma

After surgery of localized renal cell carcinoma, over 20% of the patients will develop distant metastases. Our aim was to develop an easy-to-use prognostic model for predicting metastasis-free survival after radical or partial nephrectomy of localized clear cell RCC. Model training was performed on 196 patients. Right-censored metastasis-free survival was analysed using LASSO-regularized Cox regression, which identified three key prediction features. The model was validated in an external cohort of 714 patients. 55 (28%) and 134 (19%) patients developed distant metastases during the median postoperative follow-up of 6.3 years (interquartile range 3.4-8.6) and 5.4 years (4.0-7.6) in the training and validation cohort, respectively. Patients were stratified into clinically meaningful risk categories using only three features: tumor size, tumor grade and microvascular invasion, and a representative nomogram and a visual prediction surface were constructed using these features in Cox proportional hazards model. Concordance indices in the training and validation cohorts were 0.755 +/- 0.029 and 0.836 +/- 0.015 for our novel model, which were comparable to the C-indices of the original Leibovich prediction model (0.734 +/- 0.035 and 0.848 +/- 0.017, respectively). Thus, the presented model retains high accuracy while requiring only three features that are routinely collected and widely available.Peer reviewe

Digestive and appendicular soft-parts, with behavioural implications, in a large Ordovician trilobite from the Fezouata Lagerstätte, Morocco

Trilobites were one of the most successful groups of marine arthropods during the Palaeozoic era, yet their soft-part anatomy is only known from a few exceptionally-preserved specimens found in a handful of localities from the Cambrian to the Devonian. This is because, even if the sclerotized appendages were not destroyed during early taphonomic stages, they are often overprinted by the three-dimensional, mineralised exoskeleton. Inferences about the ventral anatomy and behavioural activities of trilobites can also be derived from the ichnological record, which suggests that most Cruziana and Rusophycus trace fossils were possibly produced by the actions of trilobites. Three specimens of the asaphid trilobite Megistaspis (Ekeraspis) hammondi, have been discovered in the Lower Ordovician Fezouata Konservat-Lagerstätte of southern Morocco, preserving appendages and digestive tract. The digestive structures include a crop with digestive caeca, while the appendages display exopodal setae and slight heteropody (cephalic endopods larger and more spinose than thoracic and pygidial ones). The combination of these digestive structures and the heteropody has never been described together among trilobites, and the latter could assist in the understanding of the production of certain comb-like traces of the Cruziana rugosa group, which are extraordinarily abundant on the shallow marine shelves around Gondwana.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project number CGL2012- 39471/BTE.Peer reviewe

Cause-of-Death Contributions to Educational Inequalities in Mortality in Austria between 1981/1982 and 1991/1992: Les contributions des causes de décès aux inégalités de mortalité par niveau d’éducation en Autriche entre 1981/1982 et 1991/1992

This article uses census records and deaths records to analyze trends in educational inequalities in mortality for Austrian women and men aged 35–64 years between 1981/1982 and 1991/1992. We find an increasing gradient in mortality by education for circulatory diseases and especially ischaemic heart disease. Respiratory diseases and, in addition for women, cancers showed the opposite trend. Using decomposition analysis, we give evidence that in many cases changes in the age-structure within the 10-year interval had a bigger effect than direct improvements in mortality on the analyzed subpopulations

Effects of age, gender and soil-transmitted helminth infection on prevalence of Plasmodium infection among population living in bata district, equatorial Guinea

INTRODUCTION: Malaria and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) co-infection is an important parasitic infection affecting populations in co-endemic countries including Equatorial Guinea. To date, the health impact of STH and malaria co-infection is inconclusive. The current study aimed to report the malaria and STH infection epidemiology in the continental region of Equatorial Guinea. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study between October 2020 and January 2021 in the Bata district of Equatorial Guinea. Participants aged 1-9 years, 10-17 years and above 18 were recruited. Fresh venous blood was collected for malaria testing via mRDTs and light microscopy. Stool specimens were collected, and the Kato-Katz technique was used to detect the presence of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, hookworm spp. and intestinal Schistosoma eggs. RESULTS: A total of 402 participants were included in this study. An amount of 44.3% of them lived in urban areas, and only 51.9% of them reported having bed nets. Malaria infections were detected in 34.8% of the participants, while 50% of malaria infections were reported in children aged 10-17 years. Females had a lower prevalence of malaria (28.8%) compared with males (41.7%). Children of 1-9 years carried more gametocytes compared with other age groups. An amount of 49.3% of the participants infected with T. trichiura had malaria parasites compared with those infected with A. lumbricoides (39.6%) or both (46.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The overlapping problem of STH and malaria is neglected in Bata. The current study forces the government and other stakeholders involved in the fight against malaria and STH to consider a combined control program strategy for both parasitic infections in Equatorial Guinea