The Kelly criterion for spread bets

The optimal betting strategy for a gambler betting on a discrete number of outcomes was determined by Kelly (1956, A new interpretation of information rate. J. Oper. Res. Soc., 57, 975–985). Here, the corresponding problem is examined for spread betting, which may be considered to have a continuous distribution of possible outcomes. Since the formulae for individual events are complicated, the asymptotic limit in which the gamblers edge is small is examined, which results in universal formulae for the optimal fraction of the bank to wager, the probability of bankruptcy and the distribution function of the gamblers total capital

Mitochondrial differentiation, introgression and phylogeny of species in the Tegenaria atrica group (Araneae, Agelenidae)

The relationships between the three members of the Tegenaria atrica group (T. atrica, T. saeva and T. gigantea) were examined with DNA sequence data from mitochondrial CO1, 16S rRNA, tRNAleu(CUN) and ND1 genes. Members of this group of large house spiders have overlapping distributions in western Europe and hybridize with each other to a variable degree. The close relatedness of all three species was supported by all analyses. T. saeva and T. gigantea are more closely affiliated than either is to T. atrica. Haplotypes clearly assignable to T. gigantea were also present in many specimens of T. saeva suggesting asymmetrical introgression of mtDNA from T. gigantea into T. saeva. Molecular clock calibrations (CO1) suggest that deeper divisions within the genus Tegenaria may be in excess of 10 million years old, and that the evolutionary history of the T. atrica group has been moulded by Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles

The Effects of a 6-Week Swimming Intervention on Gross Motor Development in Primary School Children

(1) Background: This study examines the effects of a 6-week swimming intervention on motor competence in children. (2) Methods: A total of 107 children (n = 52 boys, n = 55 girls) aged 7.8 ± 0.63 years that were recruited from five primary schools in central England participated in this study, undertaking either an aquatic intervention once a week for six weeks or acting as a control group completing their usual physical education program. Participants underwent pre- and post-assessments of general motor competence using the Test of Gross Motor Development, Third Edition (TGMD-3) (a process measure) and a composite of 10 m running sprint time and standing long jump distance (product measures). Aquatic motor competence was assessed via the Aquatic Movement Protocol (AMP). Fear of drowning and swimming opportunities were also assessed by implementing a questionnaire. (3) Results: Following a mixed-model ANOVA, an overall main effect was found from pre (40.05 ± 13.6) to post (48.3 ± 18.6) for TGMD-3 scores (p < 0.05) and pre (38.7 ± 31.7) to post (50.6 ± 36.8) for AMP scores (p = 0.001). A negative significant relationship was found between AMP scores with both fear of water (p = 0.01) and fear of drowning (p < 0.05). A positive significant relationship was found between swimming opportunities and AMP score (p = 0.001). (4) Conclusions: The aquatic-based intervention improves not only aquatic motor competence but also transfers improvements in dryland movement competencies. Future research should look to implement control groupings which do not participate in swimming to further investigate the difference between swimmers and non-swimmers; however, due to swimming being a part of the national curriculum in England, this may not be feasible

FORAMINIFERAL CHARACTERISATION OF MID-UPPER JURASSIC SEQUENCES IN THE WESSEX BASIN (UNITED KINGDOM)

The use of foraminifera in the characterisation of sequences (systems tracts, maximum flooding surfaces, etc.) has developed over the last decade. Much of this work has been based in the Cenozoic successions of the Gulf of Mexico, although there is a growing application of such data in the Middle East and the North Sea Basin. The easiest surface to characterise has been the maximum flooding surface with its high diversity and high(er) abundance faunas; the characterisation of individual systems tracts has been less successful. Using the well-known mid-Upper Jurassic successions of the Dorset coastal sections, we have investigated a number of high resolution (para)sequences for their foraminiferal content. Using data of foraminiferal diversity and standing crops from a range of modern substrates we have investigated the potential faunas available after deposition, taphonomy, compaction, groundwater dissolution and modern weathering. By understanding the processes involved we have identified the key foraminiferal features of typical mid-Upper Jurassic sequences and indicated how this work may help in the correlation of successions in North Dorset and Normandy

Extracellular Matrix in Development and Disease

The evolution of multicellular metazoan organisms was marked by the inclusion of an extracellular matrix (ECM), a multicomponent, proteinaceous network between cells that contributes to the spatial arrangement of cells and the resulting tissue organization. The development of an ECM that provides support in larger organisms may have represented an advantage in the face of selection pressure for the evolution of the ECM

Legal Aspects of SIDS

My remarks today focus on four legal aspects of SIDS; the first three are problems of long standing and the fourth is less well recognized, an immediate problem to some but more of a cloud on the horizon to others. At the outset, I want to emphasize that I bring you no certain solutions. Rather my more modest objective is to provide a focus and framework for further discussions

Can jury instructions reduce the negative impact of pretrial publicity?

The increasing prevalence of pretrial publicity (PTP), media coverage of a case that occurs prior to a trial, raises concerns about fair trials. Jurors may rely on pretrial information rather than trial information to decide the fate of a defendant and may even confuse the sources of the information. While it is difficult to limit jurors’ exposure to PTP, jury instructions to improve memory for trial information may limit these effects. Participants (N=100) read negative PTP articles about a defendant. A week later, they were randomly assigned to jury instruction conditions (notetaking, question-posing, or standard) and watched a trial video about the case. Mock jurors who took notes and asked questions during the trial video were significantly better at remembering trial statements and attributing trial and pretrial information to its source than jurors who received standard instructions. However, instruction condition did not influence the number of guilty verdicts rendered

Evolution of crystalline orientations in the production of ferritic stainless steel

Ferritic stainless steel EN 1.4016 is used in a wide range of applications, the most common ones related to sheet forming. Several problems in the post-processing of these steels relates to their texture and anisotropy. Therefore, it is necessary to know the mechanisms of texture formation in the subsequent stages of metal manufacturing processes. EBSD has been demonstrated as a successful characterisation technique for this purpose. It is known that during re-crystallisation of Fe-Cr steels, deviations from the desired.-fibre texture promote a decrease of deep drawability. Additionally, a-fibre damages formability. Subsequent cold rolling and annealing can enhance the deep drawing properties of the steel sheet. In this research, a standard sample and a modified one with optimised settings as regard to chemical composition and manufacturing process, to improve the formability properties, are characterised. To analyse the preferred orientation and the type of main fibre present in the material, ODF and Aztec Reclassify Phase, to calculate the content of martensite, were used