The Climate CoLab: Large scale model-based collaborative planning

The Climate CoLab is a system to help thousands of people around the world collectively develop plans for what humans should do about global climate change. This paper shows how the system combines three design elements (model-based planning, on-line debates, and electronic voting) in a synergistic way. The paper also reports early usage experience showing that: (a) the system is attracting a continuing stream of new and returning visitors from all over the world, and (b) the nascent community can use the platform to generate interesting and high quality plans to address climate change. These initial results indicate significant progress towards an important goal in developing a collective intelligence system - the formation of a large and diverse community collectively engaged in solving a single problem.Cisco Systems, Inc.Argosy FoundationMIT Energy InitiativeMIT Sloan Sustainability Initiativ

Aquaculture-Based Calibration of the M.edulis Isotope Paleothermometer

Oxygen isotopic analysis of marine carbonate shells (δ18Oc) is a standard paleoceanographic technique used to document the chronology of seawater temperature change. Shell δ18Oc depends not only upon seawater temperature, but also upon the isotopic composition of the seawater (δ18Ow; related to salinity) and any species-specific fractionation that occurs during biomineralization. In the past, the interpretation of shell δ18Oc has been based upon theoretical studies of chemical equilibrium and kinetics, or laboratory experiments involving the inorganic precipitation of CaCO3 from solution. Other methods have employed an empirical calibration done by measuring the δ18Oc of collected shells where only estimates of time-series variability of the key parameters in the isotope paleothermometry equation (water temperature and δ18Ow) could be made. The actual environmental conditions during biomineralization, any species-dependent fractionation, any growth-dependent changes in δ18Oc including growth hiati, and any geographical/latitudinal influences that may be affecting δ18Oc cannot be quantified by these methods. Hence, the ability to quantitatively estimate paleotemperatures and salinities from any particular species of interest and any specific environment is limited. This project sought to empirically calibrate δ18Oc in a cultured marine mollusc (Mytilus edulis) with controlled and monitored water temperatures, salinities, and δ18Ow. The development of this technique enables better correlation of δ18Ow and δ18Oc by increasing the temperature and salinity ranges to be used in calibration. The method will contribute significantly to the field of isotope paleoceanography, as it can be used to culture a wide range of species under specific environmental parameters. For example, we are particularly interested in fossil molluscan assemblages from ice-proximal environments where reliable temperature and salinity proxies are unknown

External Device to Incrementally Skid the Habitat (E-DISH)

A Mars habitat transport system was designed as part of the NASA Mars exploration program. The transport system, the External Device to Incrementally Skid the Habitat (E - DISH), will be used to transport Mars habitats from their landing sites to the colony base and will be detached after unloading. The system requirements for Mars were calculated and scaled for model purposes. Specific model materials are commonly found and recommendations for materials for the Mars design are included

An Aquaculture-Based Method for Calibrated Bivalve Isotope Paleothermometry

To quantify species- specific relationships between bivalve carbonate isotope geochemistry ( delta O-18(c)) and water conditions ( temperature and salinity, related to water isotopic composition [delta O-18(w)]), an aquaculture-based methodology was developed and applied to Mytilus edulis ( blue mussel). The four- by- three factorial design consisted of four circulating temperature baths ( 7, 11, 15, and 19 degrees C) and three salinity ranges ( 23, 28, and 32 parts per thousand ( ppt); monitored for delta O-18(w) weekly). In mid- July of 2003, 4800 juvenile mussels were collected in Salt Bay, Damariscotta, Maine, and were placed in each configuration. The size distribution of harvested mussels, based on 105 specimens, ranged from 10.9 mm to 29.5 mm with a mean size of 19.8 mm. The mussels were grown in controlled conditions for up to 8.5 months, and a paleotemperature relationship based on juvenile M. edulis from Maine was developed from animals harvested at months 4, 5, and 8.5. This relationship [ T degrees C = 16.19 (+/- 0.14) - 4.69 (+/- 0.21) {delta O-18(c) VPBD - delta O-18(w) VSMOW} + 0.17 (+/- 0.13) {delta O-18(c) VPBD - delta O-18(w) VSMOW}(2); r(2) = 0.99; N = 105; P \u3c 0.0001] is nearly identical to the Kim and O\u27Neil ( 1997) abiogenic calcite equation over the entire temperature range ( 7 - 19 degrees C), and it closely resembles the commonly used paleotemperature equations of Epstein et al. ( 1953) and Horibe and Oba ( 1972). Further, the comparison of the M. edulis paleotemperature equation with the Kim and O\u27Neil ( 1997) equilibrium- based equation indicates that M. edulis specimens used in this study precipitated their shell in isotopic equilibrium with ambient water within the experimental uncertainties of both studies. The aquaculture- based methodology described here allows similar species- specific isotope paleothermometer calibrations to be performed with other bivalve species and thus provides improved quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions

A Coastal Transect of McMurdo Dry Valleys (Antarctica) Snow and Firn: Marine and Terrestrial Influences on Glaciochemistry

Samples of snow and firn from accumulation zones on Clark, Commonwealth, Blue and Victoria Upper Glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (similar to 77-78 degrees S, 161-164 degrees E), Antarctica, are evaluated chemically and isotopically to determine the relative importance of local (site-specific) factors vs regional-scale influences in defining glaciochemistry. Spatial variation in snow and firn chemistry confirms documented trends within individual valleys regarding major-ion deposition relative to elevation and to distance from the coast. Sodium and methylsulfonate (MS-), for example, follow a decreasing gradient with distance from the coast along the axis of Victoria Valley (350-119 mu gL(-1) for Na+; 33-14 mu gL(-1) for MS-); a similar pattern exists between Commonwealth and Newall Glaciers in the Asgaard Range. When comparing major-ion concentrations (e.g. Na-+,Na- MS-, Ca2+) or trace metals (e.g. Al, Fe) among different valleys, however, site-specific exposures to marine and local terrestrial chemical sources play a dominant role. Because chemical signals at all sites respond to particulates with varying mixtures of marine and terrestrial sources, each of these influences on site glaciochemistry must be considered when drawing temporal climate inferences on regional scales

Experimental Determination of Salinity, Temperature, Growth, and Metabolic Effects on Shell Isotope Chemistry of Mytilus Edulis Collected from Maine and Greenland

To study the effects of temperature, salinity, and life processes (growth rates, size, metabolic effects, and physiological/ genetic effects) on newly precipitated bivalve carbonate, we quantified shell isotopic chemistry of adult and juvenile animals of the intertidal bivalve Mytilus edulis (Blue mussel) collected alive from western Greenland and the central Gulf of Maine and cultured them under controlled conditions. Data for juvenile and adult M. edulis bivalves cultured in this study, and previously by Wanamaker et al. (2006), yielded statistically identical paleotemperature relationships. On the basis of these experiments we have developed a species-specific paleotemperature equation for the bivalve M. edulis [T degrees C = 16.28 (+/- 0.10) -4.57 (+/- 0.15) {delta(18)O(c) VPBD - delta(18)O(w) VSMOW} + 0.06 (+/- 0.06) {delta(18)O(c) VPBD - delta(18)O(w) VSMOW}(2); r(2) = 0.99; N = 323; p \u3c 0.0001]. Compared to the Kim and O\u27Neil (1997) inorganic calcite equation, M. edulis deposits its shell in isotope equilibrium (delta(18)O(calcite)) with ambient water. Carbon isotopes (delta(13)C(calcite)) from sampled shells were substantially more negative than predicted values, indicating an uptake of metabolic carbon into shell carbonate, and delta(13)C(calcite) disequilibrium increased with increasing salinity. Sampled shells of M. edulis showed no significant trends in delta(18)O(calcite) based on size, cultured growth rates, or geographic collection location, suggesting that vital effects do not affect delta(18)O(calcite) in M. edulis. The broad modern and paleogeographic distribution of this bivalve, its abundance during the Holocene, and the lack of an intraspecies physiologic isotope effect demonstrated here make it an ideal nearshore paleoceanographic proxy throughout much of the North Atlantic Ocean

A spatial framework for assessing current conditions and monitoring future change in the chemistry of the Antarctic atmosphere

This is the first study to measure more than 25 chemical constituents in the surface snow and firn across extensive regions of Antarctica. It is also the first to report total- Cs concentrations. We present major ion, trace element, heavy metal, rare earth element 5 and oxygen isotope data from a series of surface snow samples and shallow firn sections collected along four US ITASE traverses across East and West Antarctica. In each sample we measure dissolved concentrations of Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl−, NO− 3 , SO2− 4 , and MS− using ion chromatography and total concentrations of Sr, Cd, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Pb, Bi, U, As, Al, S, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Na, Mg, Li, and K using 10 inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. We also measure 18O by isotope ratio mass spectrometry. The 2002/2003 traverse began at Byrd Surface Camp, West Antarctica, and ended close to South Pole, East Antarctica. The 2003/2004 traverse began at South Pole, passed through AGO4 in central East Antarctica before turning north and finishing at 15 Taylor Dome. The combined 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 traverses started out at Taylor Dome and headed south, passing through the Byrd Glacier drainage basin and ending at South Pole. In this study, we utilize satellite remote sensing measurements of microwave backscatter and grain size to assist in the identification of glaze/dune areas across 20 Antarctica and show how chemical concentrations are higher in these areas, precluding them from containing useful high-resolution chemical climate records. The majority of the non-glaze/dune samples in this study exhibit similar, or lower, concentrations to those from previous studies. Consequently, the results presented here comprise a conservative baseline for Antarctic surface snow chemical concentra25 tions. The elements Cd, Pb, Bi, As, and Li are enriched across Antarctica relative to both ocean and upper crust elemental ratios. Global volcanic outgassing accounts for the majority of the Bi measured in East and West Antarctica and for a significant fraction of the Cd in East Antarctica. Nonetheless, global volcanic outgassing cannot account for the enriched values of Pb or As. Local volcanic outgassing from Mount Erebus may account for a significant fraction of the As and Cd in West Antarctica and for a significant fraction in East Antarctic glaze/dune areas. However, despite potential 5 contributions from local and global volcanic sources, significant concentrations of Pb, Cd, and As remain across much of Antarctica. Most importantly, this study provides a baseline from which changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere over Antarctica can be monitored under expected warming scenarios and continued intensification of industrial activities in the Southern Hemisphere

Experimental Determination of Salinity, Temperature, Growth, and Metabolic Effects on Shell Isotope Chemistry of Mytilus edulis Collected from Maine and Greenland

To study the effects of temperature, salinity, and life processes (growth rates, size, metabolic effects, and physiological/ genetic effects) on newly precipitated bivalve carbonate, we quantified shell isotopic chemistry of adult and juvenile animals of the intertidal bivalve Mytilus edulis (Blue mussel) collected alive from western Greenland and the central Gulf of Maine and cultured them under controlled conditions. Data for juvenile and adult M. edulis bivalves cultured in this study, and previously by Wanamaker et al. (2006), yielded statistically identical paleotemperature relationships. On the basis of these experiments we have developed a species-specific paleotemperature equation for the bivalve M. edulis [T degrees C = 16.28 (+/- 0.10) -4.57 (+/- 0.15) {delta(18)O(c) VPBD - delta(18)O(w) VSMOW} + 0.06 (+/- 0.06) {delta(18)O(c) VPBD - delta(18)O(w) VSMOW}(2); r(2) = 0.99; N = 323; p \u3c 0.0001]. Compared to the Kim and O\u27Neil (1997) inorganic calcite equation, M. edulis deposits its shell in isotope equilibrium (delta(18)O(calcite)) with ambient water. Carbon isotopes (delta(13)C(calcite)) from sampled shells were substantially more negative than predicted values, indicating an uptake of metabolic carbon into shell carbonate, and delta(13)C(calcite) disequilibrium increased with increasing salinity. Sampled shells of M. edulis showed no significant trends in delta(18)O(calcite) based on size, cultured growth rates, or geographic collection location, suggesting that vital effects do not affect delta(18)O(calcite) in M. edulis. The broad modern and paleogeographic distribution of this bivalve, its abundance during the Holocene, and the lack of an intraspecies physiologic isotope effect demonstrated here make it an ideal nearshore paleoceanographic proxy throughout much of the North Atlantic Ocean

Reduction in Northward Incursions of the South Asian Monsoon Since ~1400 AD Inferred from a Mt. Everest Ice Core

A highly resolved Mt. Everest ice core reveals a decrease in marine and increase in continental air masses related to relatively high summer surface pressure over Mongolia, and reduction in northward incursions of the summer South Asian monsoon since similar to 1400 AD. Previously published proxy records from lower sites south of the Himalayas indicate strengthening of the monsoon since this time. These regional differences are consistent with a south north seesaw in convective activity in the Asian monsoon region, and reflect a southward shift in the mean summer position of the monsoon trough since similar to 1400 AD. The change in monsoonal circulation at 1400 AD is synchronous with a reduction in solar irradiance and the onset of the LIA. This demonstrates a hemispheric scale circulation reorganization at this time, and the potential for future large shifts in monsoonal circulation

Discovery of a nanodiamond-rich layer in the Greenland ice sheet

We report the discovery in the Greenland ice sheet of a discrete layer of free nanodiamonds (NDs) in very high abundances, implying most likely either an unprecedented influx of extraterrestrial (ET) material or a cosmic impact event that occurred after the last glacial episode. From that layer, we extracted n-diamonds and hexagonal diamonds (lonsdaleite), an accepted ET impact indicator, at abundances of up to about 5!106 times background levels in adjacent younger and older ice. The NDs in the concentrated layer are rounded, suggesting they most likely formed during a cosmic impact through some process similar to carbon-vapor deposition or high-explosive detonation. This morphology has not been reported previously in cosmic material, but has been observed in terrestrial impact material. This is the first highly enriched, discrete layer of NDs observed in glacial ice anywhere, and its presence indicates that ice caps are important archives of ET events of varying magnitudes. Using a preliminary ice chronology based on oxygen isotopes and dust stratigraphy, the ND-rich layer appears to be coeval with ND abundance peaks reported at numerous North American sites in a sedimentary layer, the Younger Dryas boundary layer (YDB), dating to 12.9 0.1 ka. However, more investigation is needed to confirm this association