Sensitivity of point scale runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

International audienceThis paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to south western Australian rainfall, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitions water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store are controlled by thresholds. For example, saturation excess is triggered when the soil water content reaches the storage capacity threshold. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and inturn, relating these to average storm intensities. By relating maximum soil infiltration capacities to saturated drainage rates (f*), we were able to split soils into two groups; those where all runoff is a result of infiltration excess alone (f*?0.2) and those susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff (f*>0.2). For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k*) and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k=0.4) and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2). For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating saturated drainage rates to average storm intensities (g*) and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data was determined (ln g*<2). Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall is short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall is more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time averaged rainfall under these soil and rainfall conditions and predictions of further thresholds such as erosion. It offers insight into areas where the understanding of the dynamics of high resolution rainfall is required and a means by which we can improve our understanding of the way variations in rainfall intensities within a storm relate to hydrological thresholds and model predictions

Understanding the implementation and effectiveness of a group-based early parenting intervention : a process evaluation protocol

BACKGROUND: Group-based early parenting interventions delivered through community-based services may be a potentially effective means of promoting infant and family health and wellbeing. Process evaluations of these complex interventions provide vital information on how they work, as well as the conditions which shape and influence outcomes. This information is critical to decision makers and service providers who wish to embed prevention and early interventions in usual care settings. In this paper, a process evaluation protocol for an early years parenting intervention, the Parent and Infant (PIN) program, is described. This program combines a range of developmentally-appropriate supports, delivered in a single intervention process, for parents and infants (0–2 years) and aimed at enhancing parental competence, strengthening parent-infant relationships and improving infant wellbeing and adjustment. METHODS: The process evaluation is embedded within a controlled trial and accompanying cost-effectiveness evaluation. Building from extant frameworks and evaluation methods, this paper presents a systematic approach to the process evaluation of the PIN program and its underlying change principles, the implementation of the program, the context of implementation and the change mechanisms which influence and shape parent and infant outcomes. We will use a multi-method strategy, including semi-structured interviews and group discussions with key stakeholders, documentary analysis and survey methodology. DISCUSSION: The integration of innovations into existing early years systems and services is a challenging multifaceted undertaking. This process evaluation will make an important contribution to knowledge about the implementation of such programs, while also providing an example of how theory-based research can be embedded within the evaluation of community-based interventions. We discuss the strengths of the research, such as the adoption of a collaborative approach to data collection, while we also identify potential challenges, including capturing and assessing complex aspects of the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17488830 (Date of registration: 27/11/15). This trial was retrospectively registered. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-016-1737-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (<i>k^*</i>) and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln <i>k^*</i>=0.4) and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln <i>k^*</i>>2) for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (<i>g^*</i>) and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln <i>g^*</i><2). Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time averaged rainfall under these soil and rainfall conditions and predictions of larger scale phenomena such as hillslope runoff and runon. It offers insight into how rainfall resolution can affect predicted amounts of water entering the soil and thus soil water storage and drainage, possibly changing our understanding of the ecological functioning of the system or predictions of agri-chemical leaching. The application of this sensitivity analysis to different rainfall regions in Western Australia showed that locations in the tropics with higher intensity rainfalls are more likely to have differences in infiltration excess predictions with different rainfall resolutions and that a general understanding of the prevailing rainfall conditions and the soil&apos;s infiltration capacity can help in deciding whether high rainfall resolutions (below 1 h) are required for accurate surface runoff predictions

Rise of the eco warriors

A group of passionate and naïve young people leave their known worlds behind to spend 100 days in the jungles of Borneo. Their mission is to confront one of the great global challenges of our time, saving rainforests and giving hope to endangered orangutans. Their task is enormous and the odds are against them. Jojo, an orphaned baby orangutan, is entrusted in their care and they must find a way to return her to her forest home. To do this, they need to build an orangutan rehabilitation centre and find ways to help the local communities protect their forest. Under the guidance of their mentor Dr Willie Smits, they introduce an innovative satellite monitoring system called Earthwatchers and enlist the help of school students around the world. The system is put to the test when the bulldozers move in and threaten the future of a nearby community living in a traditional longhouse. This is a story about what it takes it be an eco-warrior, an individual willing to step up and take action to avert a global catastrophe taking place before our eyes. The eco-warriors represent a new generation, ready to face what is happening on our planet and willing to do something, no matter how small, to build a more humane and balanced world. For them, every individual matters, every action counts.\ud - Written by Cathy Henkel \u