Emotion Appraisal Tendencies and Carryover: How, Why, and … Therefore?

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142287/1/jcpy179.pd

External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score

Two evaluative criteria for probabilistic forecasting performance, consistency with the axioms of probability theory and external correspondence with the events that ultimately occur, are distinguished. The mean probability, or Brier score (), is the scoring rule most commonly used to quantify external correspondence. A review is made of methods for decomposing into components that represent distinct and important aspects of external correspondence. Data from an empirical study of forecasting performance are used to illustrate the interpretation of the components of the most recent decomposition of (J. F. Yates, Forecasting performance: A covariance decomposition of the mean probability score. Paper presented at 22nd Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, Philadelphia, November 1981; also an unpublished manuscript). Substantively, the most important finding of the study was a "collapsing" tendency in forecasting behavior, whereby subjects were inclined to report forecasts of .5 when they felt they knew little about the event in question. This finding is problematic because self-reported knowledge was only minimally related to the actual external correspondence of the subjects' forecasts. A survey of uses of decompositions suggests, among other things, that current research typically emphasizes calibration, perhaps to the neglect of other, more important dimensions of external correspondence.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/23907/1/0000150.pd

Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition

The probability score (PS) can be used to measure the overall accuracy of probability judgments for a single event, e.g., "Rain falls," or "This patient has cancer." It has been shown previously how a "covariance decomposition" of the mean of PS over many occasions indexes several distinct aspects of judgment performance (J. F. Yates, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 30, 132-156 (1982)). There are many situations in which probability judgments are reported for sample space partitions containing more than one event and its complement, e.g., medical situations in which a patient might suffer from Disease X, Disease Y, or Disease Z, or testing situations in which the correct answer to an item might be any one of alternatives (a) through (e). The probability score for multiple events (PSM) serves as a measure of the overall accuracy of probability judgments for the events in partitions of any size. The present article describes and interprets an extension of the covariance decomposition to the mean of PSM. The decomposition is illustrated with data from two contexts, medicine and education.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27278/1/0000294.pd

Energy-Efficient Algorithms

We initiate the systematic study of the energy complexity of algorithms (in addition to time and space complexity) based on Landauer's Principle in physics, which gives a lower bound on the amount of energy a system must dissipate if it destroys information. We propose energy-aware variations of three standard models of computation: circuit RAM, word RAM, and transdichotomous RAM. On top of these models, we build familiar high-level primitives such as control logic, memory allocation, and garbage collection with zero energy complexity and only constant-factor overheads in space and time complexity, enabling simple expression of energy-efficient algorithms. We analyze several classic algorithms in our models and develop low-energy variations: comparison sort, insertion sort, counting sort, breadth-first search, Bellman-Ford, Floyd-Warshall, matrix all-pairs shortest paths, AVL trees, binary heaps, and dynamic arrays. We explore the time/space/energy trade-off and develop several general techniques for analyzing algorithms and reducing their energy complexity. These results lay a theoretical foundation for a new field of semi-reversible computing and provide a new framework for the investigation of algorithms.Comment: 40 pages, 8 pdf figures, full version of work published in ITCS 201

Turning to art as a positive way of living with cancer: A qualitative study of personal motives and contextual influences

Why do some women turn to creative art-making after a diagnosis of cancer? Eleven women provided qualitative accounts that were analyzed following guidelines for interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Some described taking up artistic leisure activities initially in order to manage emotional distress. Others emphasized their need for positive well-being, taking up art to experience achievement and satisfaction, to regain a positive identity, and to normalize family dynamics in the context of living with cancer. Participants’ turn to art-making was facilitated by biographical and contextual factors, including pre-existing craft skills, long-standing personal values and coping philosophies, family role models for managing adversity, and the supportive encouragement of family and friends. Other research has acknowledged that positive lifestyle change and post-traumatic growth can occur after a cancer diagnosis, and this study reveals a multi-faceted process. The findings suggest a need for further research into the experiences that facilitate positive lifestyle change and subjective well-being among people who are living with cancer

Special Issue of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making on “Applications and Innovations of Eye‐Movement Research in Judgment and Decision Making”

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/100158/1/bdm1798.pd

Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method

An experiment is reported in which subjects assigned probabilities to the outcomes of basketball games and to the truth of general-knowledge items. Three different methods were used for eliciting subjects' probability judgments. Subjects were more successful in selecting answers to the general-knowledge questions than they were in picking basketball game winners. The overall accuracy of their probability judgments for general-knowledge items was superior, too. On the other hand, subjects' judgments about general-knowledge questions were more overconfident, more poorly calibrated, and included greater scatter. One method of probability assessment gave subjects an irrelevant cue. This was found to increase confidence and overconfidence and to hurt calibration. Correlations between measures of performance on general-knowledge questions and basketball predictions showed substantial individual consistency in confidence, but only weak consistency in other components of judgment quality. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/26553/1/0000092.pd

Disjunction errors in qualitative likelihood judgment

Probability theory requires that the disjunction of two events be judged at least as likely as either of those events. Two studies are described which imply that violations of this requirement are very common. The data also show that subjects do not commit disjunction errors because they misinterpret the disjunctive statement "A or B" to mean "A or B, but not both." Instead, the pattern of errors is consistent with a judgment process describable as averaging. These results provide support for a "signed combination model of qualitative likelihood judgment." This model generalizes a previous one which applied to judgments concerning conjunctive events (J. F. Yates and B. W. Carlson, 1986,Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 37, 230-253).Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27662/1/0000044.pd

Processes operative during delay of gratification

Sixty-four middle-class preschool children chose between waiting for a preferred item and receiving a less desired item immediately. The items were of different classes, i.e., one food and one toy, and subjects waited with one, both, or neither of the rewards available for viewing. The likelihood that a subject would continue waiting for the delayed reward was found to increase as a function of previous waiting time rather than decrease or remain constant as required by two current theories of delay of gratification processes, an aversive affect model implied by Mischel and Ebbesen (1970) and Atkinson and Birch's (1970) “dynamics of action.” Although display of rewards impaired successful delay, replicating previous results, dynamics of action predictions of differential effects for display of immediately available and delayed outcomes of different classes were not confirmed. Systematic observation of spontaneous subject activities during the delay period offered additional support for the notion that distraction facilitates successful waiting behavior. A decision-attention model is proposed to account for the present results as well as those of previous studies of delay of gratification.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45371/1/11031_2005_Article_BF01650596.pd

An empirical evaluation of descriptive models of ambiguity reactions in choice situations

Ambiguity is uncertainty about an option's outcome-generating process, and is characterized as uncertainty about an option's outcome probabilities. Subjects, in choice tasks, typically have avoided ambiguous options. Descriptive models are identified and tested in two studies which had subjects rank monetary lotteries according to preference. In Study 1, lotteries involved receiving a positive amount or nothing, where P denotes the probability of receiving the nonzero amount. Subjects were willing to forego expected winnings to avoid ambiguity near P = .50 and P = .75. Near P = .25, a significant percentage of subjects exhibited ambiguity seeking, with subjects, on average, willing to forego expected winnings to have the more ambiguous option. The observed behavior contradicts the viability of a proposed lexicographic model. Study 2 tested four polynomial models using diagnostic properties in the context of conjoint measurement theory. The results supported a sign dependence of ambiguity with respect to the probability level P, such that subjects' preference orderings over ambiguity reversed with changes in P. This behavior was inconsistent with all the three-factor polynomial models investigated. Further analyses failed to support a variant of portfolio theory, as well. The implications of these results for the descriptive modeling of choice under ambiguity are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27663/1/0000045.pd