FARM-LEVEL EVIDENCE ON THE RISK BALANCING HYPOTHESIS FROM ILLINOIS GRAIN FARMS

This study provides farm-level empirical support to the Risk-Balancing Hypothesis using Illinois grain farm data. The econometric results indicate that risk-balancing farmers comprise more than half of the sample. These farmers tend to be older, have higher leasing ratios, are less financially efficient and manage risk through crop specialization, enterprise diversification, and marketing strategies in addition to risk balancing.Risk and Uncertainty,

von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage Theorems for Causal Decision Making

Causal thinking and decision making under uncertainty are fundamental aspects of intelligent reasoning. Decision making under uncertainty has been well studied when information is considered at the associative (probabilistic) level. The classical Theorems of von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage provide a formal criterion for rational choice using purely associative information. Causal inference often yields uncertainty about the exact causal structure, so we consider what kinds of decisions are possible in those conditions. In this work, we consider decision problems in which available actions and consequences are causally connected. After recalling a previous causal decision making result, which relies on a known causal model, we consider the case in which the causal mechanism that controls some environment is unknown to a rational decision maker. In this setting we state and prove a causal version of Savage's Theorem, which we then use to develop a notion of causal games with its respective causal Nash equilibrium. These results highlight the importance of causal models in decision making and the variety of potential applications.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Causal Inferenc

Generation of Multi-Scroll Attractors Without Equilibria Via Piecewise Linear Systems

In this paper we present a new class of dynamical system without equilibria which possesses a multi scroll attractor. It is a piecewise-linear (PWL) system which is simple, stable, displays chaotic behavior and serves as a model for analogous non-linear systems. We test for chaos using the 0-1 Test for Chaos of Ref.12.Comment: Corresponding Author: Eric Campos-Cant\'o

The asymmetric profile of the H76 alpha line emission from MWC349

MWC349 is an emission-line star found by Merrill, Humason and Burwell (1932). Braes, Habing and Schoenmaker (1972) discovered that it is a strong radio source. The radio emission originates in a massive ionized wind that is expanding with a velocity of about 50 km s(-1). Its continuum spectrum fits well a nu(0.6) power law from the cm wavelengths to the far-IR. Radio recombination line emission from the envelope of MWC349 was first detected by Altenhoff, Strittmatter and Wendker (1981). We have obtained good signal-to-noise ratio, Very Large Array observations of the H76 alpha radio recombination line from the ionized wind of MWC349. Our data reveal that the profile is markedly asymmetric, with a steep rise on the blue side. This asymmetry could be due to non-LTE effects in the formation and transfer of the line or to intrinsic asymmetries in the envelope. Our analysis suggests that most probably the peculiar profile is caused by a non-LTE enhancement of the line emission from the side of the envelope nearer to the observer. This asymmetry has the opposite sense than that observed in optical and IR recombination lines, where a different effect (absorption of the stellar continuum by the gas in the wind between the star and the observer) is known to be dominant, leading to the classic P Cygni profile. We propose that the profiles of the radio recombination lines from ionized stellar winds will have this characteristic shape, while optical and IR recombination lines are characterized by P Cygni-like profiles. Unfortunately, at present the detection of radio recombination lines from ionized stellar winds is only feasible for MWC349 and a few other objects