Visualizing Uncertainty in Predicted Hurricane Tracks

Although the past 30 years have seen major advances in the scientific understanding of hurricane forecasting, there has been a lack of systematic research on people’s comprehension of displays used to show these forecasts. A primary visual aids is the error cone. The center line represents the predicted hurricane track for a five day period. The width of the cone is determined by considering historical forecast errors over a five year sample, and represents a 67% likelihood region for the hurricane track. A primary challenge of this model is that that most people have difficulty in understanding the probabilistic concepts that are used to communicate uncertainty. For example, it tends to give the impression to those inside the cone that they have an exaggerated chance of being in the hurricane\u27s path, while those outside of the cone tend to feel a false sense of security. We have developed a new method of visualizing the possible projected paths of hurricanes using the projected path of a given hurricane as well as the historical data of previous hurricanes. The goal is to maintain a display that shows a range of possible outcomes, while maintaining the statistical characteristics of the error cone

The synthesis of 15 mu infrared horizon radiance profiles from meteorological data inputs

Computational computer program for modeling infrared horizon radiance profile using pressure and temperature profile input

Lipopolysaccharide and toll-like receptor 4 in dogs with congenital portosystemic shunts

Surgical attenuation of a congenital portosystemic shunt (CPSS) results in increased portal vein perfusion, liver growth and clinical improvement. Portal lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is implicated in liver regeneration via toll-like receptor (TLR) 4 mediated cytokine activation. The aim of this study was to investigate factors associated with LPS in dogs with CPSS. Plasma LPS concentrations were measured in the peripheral and portal blood using a limulus amoebocyte lysate (LAL) assay. LPS concentration was significantly greater in the portal blood compared to peripheral blood in dogs with CPSS (P = 0.046) and control dogs (P = 0.002). LPS concentrations in the peripheral (P = 0.012) and portal (P = 0.005) blood of dogs with CPSS were significantly greater than those of control dogs. The relative mRNA expression of cytokines and TLRs was measured in liver biopsies from dogs with CPSS using quantitative PCR. TLR4 expression significantly increased following partial CPSS attenuation (P = 0.020). TLR4 expression was significantly greater in dogs that tolerated complete CPSS attenuation (P = 0.011) and those with good portal blood flow on pre-attenuation (P = 0.004) and post-attenuation (P = 0.015) portovenography. Serum interleukin (IL)-6 concentration was measured using a canine specific ELISA and significantly increased 24 h following CPSS attenuation (P < 0.001). Portal LPS was increased in dogs with CPSS, consistent with decreased hepatic clearance. TLR4 mRNA expression was significantly associated with portal blood flow and increased following surgery. These findings support the concept that portal LPS delivery is important in the hepatic response to surgical attenuation. Serum IL-6 significantly increased following surgery, consistent with LPS stimulation via TLR4, although this increase might be non-specific

Combination of self-harm methods and fatal and non-fatal repetition: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Assessment and aftercare for people who self-harm needs to be related to an understanding of risks of adverse outcomes. We aimed to determine whether self-harm by a combination of methods and its early repetition are associated with adverse outcomes - especially non-fatal repetition and suicide. METHOD: 10,829 consecutive general hospital attendances due to self-harm in one large English city were monitored, through scrutiny of Emergency Department attendances, over three years and followed up to determine the incidence of non-fatal repetition. Subsequent deaths, by any cause and by suicide, were determined from national statistical records. RESULTS: 6155 patients accounted for the 10,829 episodes: 72% by self-poisoning, 21% self-injury, and 746 episodes (7%) due to a combination of methods. After a combined-methods index episode, non-fatal repetition (P=0.001) and suicide (P=0.002) occurred sooner and more frequently than it did among those who had self-poisoned. Further hospital attendance due to self-harm within a month was associated with a 3.7-fold (95% CI 2.1-6.4) risk of subsequent suicide. LIMITATIONS: The data exclude self-harm episodes that do not result in a hospital attendance. Index episodes in the study are not generally life-time first episodes so follow-up data are based on an arbitrary start-point. Both of these limitations are common to all studies of this kind. CONCLUSIONS: At psychosocial assessment and the making of aftercare arrangements, combined methods of self-harm or another recent episode should be considered 'red-flag' indicators for attention to care

GeoZui3D: Data Fusion for Interpreting Oceanographic Data

GeoZui3D stands for Geographic Zooming User Interface. It is a new visualization software system designed for interpreting multiple sources of 3D data. The system supports gridded terrain models, triangular meshes, curtain plots, and a number of other display objects. A novel center of workspace interaction method unifies a number of aspects of the interface. It creates a simple viewpoint control method, it helps link multiple views, and is ideal for stereoscopic viewing. GeoZui3D has a number of features to support real-time input. Through a CORBA interface external entities can influence the position and state of objects in the display. Extra windows can be attached to moving objects allowing for their position and data to be monitored. We describe the application of this system for heterogeneous data fusion, for multibeam QC and for ROV/AUV monitoring

The association between retinal vein ophthalmodynamometric force change and optic disc excavation

Aim: Retinal vein ophthalmodynamometric force (ODF) is predictive of future optic disc excavation in glaucoma, but it is not known if variation in ODF affects prognosis. We aimed to assess whether a change in ODF provides additional prognostic information. Methods: 135 eyes of 75 patients with glaucoma or being glaucoma suspects had intraocular pressure (IOP), visual fields, stereo optic disc photography and ODF measured on an initial visit and a subsequent visit at mean 82 (SD 7.3) months later. Corneal thickness and blood pressure were recorded on the latter visit. When venous pulsation was spontaneous, the ODF was recorded as 0 g. Change in ODF was calculated. Flicker stereochronoscopy was used to determine the occurrence of optic disc excavation, which was modelled against the measured variables using multiple mixed effects logistic regression. Results: Change in ODF (p=0.046) was associated with increased excavation. Average IOP (p=0.66) and other variables were not associated. Odds ratio for increased optic disc excavation of 1.045 per gram ODF change (95% CI 1.001 to 1.090) was calculated. Conclusion: Change in retinal vein ODF may provide additional information to assist with glaucoma prognostication and implies a significant relationship between venous change and glaucoma patho-physiology

Varieties of Limited Access Orders: The nexus between politics and economics in hybrid regimes

This article advances our understanding of differences in hybrid stability by going beyond existing regime typologies that separate the study of political institutions from the study of economic institutions. It combines the work of Douglass North, John Wallis, and Barry Weingast (NWW) on varieties of social orders with the literature on political and economic regime typologies and dynamics to understand hybrid regimes as Limited Access Orders (LAOs) that differ in the way dominant elites limit access to political and economic resources. Based on a measurement of political and economic access applied to seven post‐Soviet states, the article identifies four types of LAOs. Challenging NWW's claim, it shows that hybrid regimes can combine different degrees of political and economic access to sustain stability. Our typology allows to form theoretical expectations about the kinds of political and/or economic changes that will move different types of LAOs toward more openness or closure

Perceptions of knowledge sharing among small family firm leaders: a structural equation model

Small family firms have many unique relational qualities with implications for how knowledge is passed between individuals. Extant literature posits leadership approach as important in explaining differences in knowledge-sharing climate from one firm to another. This study investigates how leadership approaches interact with family influence to inform perceptions of knowledge sharing. We utilize survey data (n = 110) from owner-managers of knowledge-intensive small family firms in Scotland. Our findings present a choice in leadership intention, contrasting organization-focused participation against family-influenced guidance. Insight is offered on the implications of this leadership choice at both organizational and familial level

To let students self-select or not: that is the question for teachers of culturally diverse groups

When students can self-select their group members, a common assumption is that students prefer to select friends from similar cultural backgrounds. However, when teachers randomise students in groups from different cultural backgrounds, students are “forced” to work together. The prime goal of this study is to understand the impact of two group selection methods on how students from diverse cultural backgrounds build learning and work-relations, using an innovative quantitative method of Social Network Analysis in a pre-post test manner. In a quasi-experimental study of 2 ˣ 69 students, in one condition the students were randomly allocated to groups by staff and in the other students were allowed to self-select their group members. The results indicate that students in the self-selected condition primarily selected their friends from a similar cultural background. The learning networks after 14 weeks were primarily predicted by the group allocation and initial friendships. However, students in the random condition developed equally strong internal group relations but more “knowledge spillovers” outside their group, indicating that the random condition led to positive effects beyond the group