Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction

Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conducted lot font popular ensemble strategics on five real-life chin n data sets In general, the results demonstrate how lift performance can be substantially improved by using alternative base classifiers and fusion tides However: the effect vanes lot the (Idol cut ensemble strategies lit particular, the results indicate an increase of lift performance of (1) Bagging by implementing C4 4 base classifiets. (n) the Random Subspace Method (RSM) by using lift-weighted fusion rules, and (in) AdaBoost, by implementing both

Driver behaviour with adaptive cruise control

This paper reports on the evaluation of adaptive cruise control (ACC) from a psychological perspective. It was anticipated that ACC would have an effect upon the psychology of driving, i.e. make the driver feel like they have less control, reduce the level of trust in the vehicle, make drivers less situationally aware, but workload might be reduced and driving might be less stressful. Drivers were asked to drive in a driving simulator under manual and ACC conditions. Analysis of variance techniques were used to determine the effects of workload (i.e. amount of traffic) and feedback (i.e. degree of information from the ACC system) on the psychological variables measured (i.e. locus of control, trust, workload, stress, mental models and situation awareness). The results showed that: locus of control and trust were unaffected by ACC, whereas situation awareness, workload and stress were reduced by ACC. Ways of improving situation awareness could include cues to help the driver predict vehicle trajectory and identify conflicts

The impact of customer-specific marketing expenses on customer retention and customer profitability

We study the effects of customer-specific marketing expenses on customer retention and customer profitability in a business-to-business setting. Using data from a company providing hygiene services, we look at the impact of a hitherto unstudied type of expense targeted at individual customer relationships: the offering of free equipment to customers. The data allow tracking the activities performed in more than 4,500 customer relationships over a period of 4 years. Retention rates are higher for customers targeted with free equipment, but this effect results from an interaction with customer size. First-order dynamic panel data analyses show that the impact of targeted marketing expenses on customer dollar profit is positive for large customers, but there is no effect for smaller customers. Thus, targeted marketing expenses seem to be a tool for relationship maintenance rather than customer development: they help in retaining large customers that generate more profit, but they do not seem to work in developing new customers into larger, more profitable ones

Cirsium species show disparity in patterns of genetic variation at their range-edge, despite similar patterns of reproduction and isolation

Genetic variation was assessed across the UK geographical range of Cirsium acaule and Cirsium heterophyllum. A decline in genetic diversity and increase in population divergence approaching the range edge of these species was predicted based on parallel declines in population density and seed production reported seperately. Patterns were compared with UK populations of the widespread Cirsium arvense.Populations were sampled along a latitudinal transect in the UK and genetic variation assessed using microsatellite markers. Cirsium acaule shows strong isolation by distance, a significant decline in diversity and an increase in divergence among range-edge populations. Geographical structure is also evident in C. arvense, whereas no such patterns are seen in C.heterophyllum. There is a major disparity between patterns of genetic variation in C. acaule and C. heterophyllum despite very similar patterns in seed production and population isolation in these species. This suggests it may be misleading to make assumptions about the geographical structure of genetic variation within species based solely on the present-day reproduction and distribution of populations

Alleviating poverty through Islamic microfinance: factors and measures of financial performance, and roles of Islamic values and financial policies

Indonesia has a strong presence of microfinance sector with the number of Islamic Microfinance Institutions (IMFIs) estimated to be around 5,000 currently. Microfinance is an effective tool in alleviating poverty in Indonesia due to the limited access to financial services by the poor who accounted for approximately 96 million Indonesians (or 37% of the total population), living on less than USD 1.90 a day. In the absence of collateral and steady income, the poor are considered too risky to be given credit facilities by the formal financial services providers and living in remote areas has also limited their access to formal financial services. This study aims to examine the poverty alleviation efforts from the perspective of the IMFIs in view of their direct involvement in the process and having rich information about financial issues facing the borrowers. The managers also understand about financial inclusion agenda as well as financial guidelines and regulations issued by the relevant authorities. A total of 34 managers of Baitulmaal Wa Tamwil (BMTs), which registered under the Sharia Cooperative Centre (INKOPSYAH) are taken as respondents from the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang and Bekasi (JABODETABEK) areas. The first instrument was a survey questionnaire, and the second one was an in-depth interview to outline data related to the model design. The findings of this research are expected to contribute to better decision-making for the BMTs to further enhance its role in alleviating poverty. The findings also elaborate several dimensions to improving financial inclusion among the poor including providing financial services, implementing Islamic principles, significant policies, community-based framework concept and training financial education. This research highlights the need for a variety of strategies to warrant success of poverty alleviation efforts by BMT

Identifying the neutrino mass spectrum from a supernova neutrino burst

We study the role that the future detection of the neutrino burst from a galactic supernova can play in the reconstruction of the neutrino mass spectrum. We consider all possible 3$\nu$ mass and flavor spectra which describe the solar and atmospheric neutrino data. For each of these spectra we find the observable effects of the supernova neutrino conversions both in the matter of the star and the earth. We show that studies of the electron neutrino and anineutrino spectra as well as observations of the neutral current effects from supernova will allow us (i) to identify the solar neutrino solution, (ii) to determine the type of mass hierarchy (normal or inverted) and (iii) to probe the mixing $|U_{e3}|^2$ to values as low as $10^{-4} - 10^{-3}$.Comment: 53 pages, 13eps figures. Substantial changes made, new results, figures and tables adde

Is Large Lepton Mixing Excluded?

The original \bnum -(or $\bar{\nu}_{\tau}$-) energy spectrum from the gravitational collapse of a star has a larger average energy than the spectrum for \bnue since the opacity of \bnue exeeds that of \bnum (or $\nu_{\tau}$). Flavor neutrino conversion, \bnue $\leftrightarrow$ \bnum, induced by lepton mixing results in partial permutation of the original \bnue and \bnum spectra. An upper bound on the permutation factor, $p \leq 0.35$ (99$\%$ CL) is derived using the data from SN1987A and the different models of the neutrino burst. The relation between the permutation factor and the vacuum mixing angle is established, which leads to the upper bound on this angle. The excluded region, $\sin^2 2\theta > 0.7 - 0.9$, covers the regions of large mixing angle solutions of the solar neutrino problem: ``just-so" and, partly, MSW, as well as part of region of $\nu_{e} - \nu_{\mu}$ oscillation space which could be responsible for the atmospheric muon neutrino deficit. These limits are sensitive to the predicted neutrino spectrum and can be strengthened as supernova models improve.Comment: 20 pages, TeX file. For hardcopy with figures contact [email protected]. Institute for Advanced Study number AST 93/1

Dendrite growth in undercooled Al-rich Al-Ni melts measured on Earth and in Space

The dendrite growth velocity in Al₇₅Ni₂₅ melts has been measured in a containerless procedure as a function of undercooling using an electromagnetic levitation technique both in the Earth laboratory and in Space on board the International Space Station. The growth shows an anomalous behavior inasmuch as the growth velocity decreases with increasing undercooling, confirming previous experiments on Earth. Within the scatter of experimental data, results obtained on Earth and in Space do not show significant differences. Thus, convection effects as the origin of the anomalous growth characteristics can be excluded. However, high-speed video recording exhibits multiple nucleation events in front of the growing solid-liquid interface. This effect is identified as the origin of the anomalous dendrite growth characteristics in undercooled melts of Al-rich Al-Ni melts

Vehicle localization by lidar point correlation improved by change detection

LiDAR sensors are proven sensors for accurate vehicle localization. Instead of detecting and matching features in the LiDAR data, we want to use the entire information provided by the scanners. As dynamic objects, like cars, pedestrians or even construction sites could lead to wrong localization results, we use a change detection algorithm to detect these objects in the reference data. If an object occurs in a certain number of measurements at the same position, we mark it and every containing point as static. In the next step, we merge the data of the single measurement epochs to one reference dataset, whereby we only use static points. Further, we also use a classification algorithm to detect trees. For the online localization of the vehicle, we use simulated data of a vertical aligned automotive LiDAR sensor. As we only want to use static objects in this case as well, we use a random forest classifier to detect dynamic scan points online. Since the automotive data is derived from the LiDAR Mobile Mapping System, we are able to use the labelled objects from the reference data generation step to create the training data and further to detect dynamic objects online. The localization then can be done by a point to image correlation method using only static objects. We achieved a localization standard deviation of about 5 cm (position) and 0.06° (heading), and were able to successfully localize the vehicle in about 93 % of the cases along a trajectory of 13 km in Hannover, Germany

Modeling of Wnt-mediated tissue patterning in vertebrate embryogenesis

This is the final version. Available on open access from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this recordData Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.During embryogenesis, morphogens form a concentration gradient in responsive tissue, which is then translated into a spatial cellular pattern. The mechanisms by which morphogens spread through a tissue to establish such a morphogenetic field remain elusive. Here, we investigate by mutually complementary simulations and in vivo experiments how Wnt morphogen transport by cytonemes differs from typically assumed diffusion-based transport for patterning of highly dynamic tissue such as the neural plate in zebrafish. Stochasticity strongly influences fate acquisition at the single cell level and results in fluctuating boundaries between pattern regions. Stable patterning can be achieved by sorting through concentration dependent cell migration and apoptosis, independent of the morphogen transport mechanism. We show that Wnt transport by cytonemes achieves distinct Wnt thresholds for the brain primordia earlier compared with diffusion-based transport. We conclude that a cytoneme-mediated morphogen transport together with directed cell sorting is a potentially favored mechanism to establish morphogen gradients in rapidly expanding developmental systems.Biotechnology & Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)Wellcome TrustChinese Scholarship Council (CSC)Medical Research Council (MRC