Coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions between the Madden–Julian oscillation and synoptic-scale variability over the warm pool

A principal component analysis of the combined fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface zonal and meridional wind reveals the dominant mode of intraseasonal (30-70-day) co-variability during northern winter in the tropical Eastern Hemisphere is that of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Regression calculations show that the submonthly (30-day high-pass filtered) surface wind variability is significantly modulated during the MJO. Regions of increased (decreased) submonthly surface wind variability propagate eastward, approximately in phase with the intraseasonal surface westerly (easterly) anomalies of the MJO. Due to the dependence of the surface latent heat flux on the magnitude of the total wind speed, this systematic modulation of the submonthly surface wind variability produces a significant component in the intraseasonal latent heat flux anomalies, which partially cancels the latent heat flux anomalies due to the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies, particularly south of 10S. A method is derived that demodulates the submonthly surface wind variability from the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies. This method is applied to the wind forcing fields of a one-dimensional ocean model. The model response to this modified forcing produces larger intraseasonal SST anomalies than when the model is forced with the observed forcing over large areas of the southwest Pacific Ocean and southeast Indian Ocean during both phases of the MJO. This result has implications for accurate coupled modeling of the MJO. A similar calculation is applied to the surface shortwave flux, but intraseasonal modulation of submonthly surface shortwave flux variability does not appear to be important to the dynamics of the MJO

Increasing vertical mixing to reduce Southern Ocean deep convection in NEMO3.4

Most CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models unrealistically form Antarctic Bottom Water by open ocean deep convection in the Weddell and Ross seas. To identify the mechanisms triggering Southern Ocean deep convection in models, we perform sensitivity experiments on the ocean model NEMO3.4 forced by prescribed atmospheric fluxes. We vary the vertical velocity scale of the Langmuir turbulence, the fraction of turbulent kinetic energy transferred below the mixed layer, and the background diffusivity and run short simulations from 1980. All experiments exhibit deep convection in the Riiser-Larsen Sea in 1987; the origin is a positive sea ice anomaly in 1985, causing a shallow anomaly in mixed layer depth, hence anomalously warm surface waters and subsequent polynya opening. Modifying the vertical mixing impacts both the climatological state and the associated surface anomalies. The experiments with enhanced mixing exhibit colder surface waters and reduced deep convection. The experiments with decreased mixing give warmer surface waters, open larger polynyas causing more saline surface waters and have deep convection across the Weddell Sea until the simulations end. Extended experiments reveal an increase in the Drake Passage transport of 4 Sv each year deep convection occurs, leading to an unrealistically large transport at the end of the simulation. North Atlantic deep convection is not significantly affected by the changes in mixing parameters. As new climate model overflow parameterisations are developed to form Antarctic Bottom Water more realistically, we argue that models would benefit from stopping Southern Ocean deep convection, for example by increasing their vertical mixing

Open-mindedness can decrease persuasion amongst adolescents: The role of self-affirmation

Objectives Self-affirmation (e.g., by reflecting on important personal values) has been found to promote more open-minded appraisal of threatening health messages in at-risk adults. However, it is unclear how self-affirmation affects adolescents and whether it has differential effects on the impact of these messages amongst those at relatively lower and higher risk. The current study explored moderation by risk. Design Participants were randomly assigned to either a self-affirmation or a control condition before receiving a health message concerning physical activity. Methods Older adolescents (N = 125) completed a self-affirmation or control writing task before reading about the health consequences of not meeting recommendations to be physically active for at least 60 min daily. Most of the sample did not achieve these levels of activity (98%, N = 123). Consequently, the message informed these participants that – unless they changed their behaviour – they would be at higher risk of heart disease. Participants completed measures of responses to the message and behaviour-specific cognitions (e.g., self-efficacy) for meeting the recommendations. Results For relatively inactive participants, self-affirmation was associated with increased persuasion. However, for those who were moderately active (but not meeting recommendations), those in the self-affirmation condition were less persuaded by the message. Conclusions Whilst self-affirmation can increase message acceptance, there are circumstances when the open-mindedness it induces may decrease persuasion. The evidence provided in this study suggests that caution may be needed when recommendations are challenging and it could be considered reasonable to be sceptical about the need to change behaviour

Optimal Prandtl number for heat transfer in rotating Rayleigh-Benard convection

Numerical data for the heat transfer as a function of the Prandtl (Pr) and Rossby (Ro) numbers in turbulent rotating Rayleigh-Benard convection are presented for Rayleigh number Ra = 10^8. When Ro is fixed the heat transfer enhancement with respect to the non-rotating value shows a maximum as function of Pr. This maximum is due to the reduced efficiency of Ekman pumping when Pr becomes too small or too large. When Pr becomes small, i.e. for large thermal diffusivity, the heat that is carried by the vertical vortices spreads out in the middle of the cell, and Ekman pumping thus becomes less efficient. For higher Pr the thermal boundary layers (BLs) are thinner than the kinetic BLs and therefore the Ekman vortices do not reach the thermal BL. This means that the fluid that is sucked into the vertical vortices is colder than for lower Pr which limits the efficiency of the upwards heat transfer.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figure

Enforcing QVT-R with mu-calculus and games

Abstract. QVT-R is the standard Object Management Group bidi-rectional transformation language. In previous work, we gave a precise game-theoretic semantics for the checkonly semantics of QVT-R trans-formations, including the recursive invocation of relations which is al-lowed and used, but not defined, by the QVT standard. In this paper, we take up the problem of enforce semantics, where the standard at-tempts formality, but at crucial points lapses into English. We show that our previous semantics can be extended to enforce mode, giving a precise semantics taking the standard into account.

Estimating population cardinal health state valuation models from individual ordinal (rank) health state preference data

Ranking exercises have routinely been used as warm-up exercises within health state valuation surveys. Very little use has been made of the information obtained in this process. Instead, research has focussed upon the analysis of health state valuation data obtained using the visual analogue scale, standard gamble and time trade off methods. Thurstone’s law of comparative judgement postulates a stable relationship between ordinal and cardinal preferences, based upon the information provided by pairwise choices. McFadden proposed that this relationship could be modelled by estimating conditional logistic regression models where alternatives had been ranked. In this paper we report the estimation of such models for the Health Utilities Index Mark 2 and the SF-6D. The results are compared to the conventional regression models estimated from standard gamble data, and to the observed mean standard gamble health state valuations. For both the HUI2 and the SF-6D, the models estimated using rank data are broadly comparable to the models estimated on standard gamble data and the predictive performance of these models is close to that of the standard gamble models. Our research indicates that rank data has the potential to provide useful insights into community health state preferences. However, important questions remain

Coupled wake boundary layer model of wind-farms

We present and test the coupled wake boundary layer (CWBL) model that describes the distribution of the power output in a wind-farm. The model couples the traditional, industry-standard wake model approach with a "top-down" model for the overall wind-farm boundary layer structure. This wake model captures the effect of turbine positioning, while the "top-down" portion of the model adds the interactions between the wind-turbine wakes and the atmospheric boundary layer. Each portion of the model requires specification of a parameter that is not known a-priori. For the wake model, the wake expansion coefficient is required, while the "top-down" model requires an effective spanwise turbine spacing within which the model's momentum balance is relevant. The wake expansion coefficient is obtained by matching the predicted mean velocity at the turbine from both approaches, while the effective spanwise turbine spacing depends on turbine positioning and thus can be determined from the wake model. Coupling of the constitutive components of the CWBL model is achieved by iterating these parameters until convergence is reached. We illustrate the performance of the model by applying it to both developing wind-farms including entrance effects and to fully developed (deep-array) conditions. Comparisons of the CWBL model predictions with results from a suite of large eddy simulations (LES) shows that the model closely represents the results obtained in these high-fidelity numerical simulations. A comparison with measured power degradation at the Horns Rev and Nysted wind-farms shows that the model can also be successfully applied to real wind-farms.Comment: 25 pages, 21 figures, submitted to Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy on July 18, 201

Lamotrigine treatment of aggression in female borderline patients, Part II: an 18-month follow-up

Borderline patients often display pathological aggression. We previously tested lamotrigine, an anti-convulsant, in therapy for aggression in women with borderline personality disorder (BPD) (J Psychopharmacol 2005; 19: 287–291), and found significant changes on most scales of the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI) after eight weeks. To assess the longerterm efficacy of lamotrigine in therapy for aggression in women with BPD, this 18-month follow-up observation was carried out, in which patients (treated with lamotrigine: n = 18; former placebo group: n = 9) were tested every six months. According to the intent-to-treat principle, significant changes on all scales of the STAXI were observed in the lamotrigine-treated subjects. All subjects tolerated lamotrigine relatively well. Lamotrigine appears to be an effective and relatively safe agent in the longer-term treatment of aggression in women with BPD

The enviornmental assessment of a contemporary coal mining system

A contemporary underground coal mine in eastern Kentucky was assessed in order to determine potential off-site and on-site environmental impacts associated with the mining system in the given environmental setting. A 4 section, continuous room and pillor mine plan was developed for an appropriate site in eastern Kentucky. Potential environmental impacts were identified, and mitigation costs determined. The major potential environmental impacts were determined to be: acid water drainage from the mine and refuse site, uneven subsidence of the surface as a result of mining activity, and alteration of ground water aquifers in the subsidence zone. In the specific case examined, the costs of environmental impact mitigation to levels prescribed by regulations would not exceed $1/ton of coal mined, and post mining land values would not be affected