Intelligent tutoring systems as tools for investigating individual differences in learning

The ultimate goal of this research is to build an improved model-based selection and classification system for the United States Air Force. Researchers are developing innovative approaches to ability testing. The Learning Abilities Measurement Program (LAMP) examines individual differences in learning abilities, seeking answers to the questions of why some people learn more and better than others and whether there are basic cognitive processes applicable across tasks and domains that are predictive of successful performance (or whether there are more complex problem solving behaviors involved)

Rose garden promises of intelligent tutoring systems: Blossom or thorn

Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) have been in existence for over a decade. However, few controlled evaluation studies have been conducted comparing the effectiveness of these systems to more traditional instruction methods. Two main promises of ITSs are examined: (1) Engender more effective and efficient learning in relation to traditional formats; and (2) Reduce the range of learning outcome measures where a majority of individuals are elevated to high performance levels. Bloom (1984) has referred to these as the two sigma problem; to achieve two standard deviation improvements with tutoring over traditional instruction methods. Four ITSs are discussed in relation to the two promises. These tutors have undergone systematic, controlled evaluations: (1) The LISP tutor (Anderson Farrell and Sauers, 1984); (2) Smithtown (Shute and Glaser, in press); (3) Sherlock (Lesgold, Lajoie, Bunzo and Eggan, 1990); and (4) The Pascal ITS (Bonar, Cunningham, Beatty and Well, 1988). Results show that these four tutors do accelerate learning with no degradation in final outcome. Suggestions for improvements to the design and evaluation of ITSs are discussed

A New Challenge: Testing the Video Course

This paper offers some preliminary thoughts on the testing ofvideo courses, including a review of the literature and an examinationof the research on the subject. The unique characteristics ofvideo courses suggest that different language learning outcomes maybe expected, which means that creating appropriate tests is thereforea new challenge for language teachers. The paper lists subtesttypes, and gives an example of a test used by the authors. Based onthis experience, a number of guidelines are offered regarding thecreation of appropriate tests, and a direction for future research inthe area is suggested

Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/)The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low carbon alternative to today's gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low cost vehicle is available we find that the PHEV has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO2 price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation and the size of the vehicle fleet. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO2 emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.BP Conversion Research Project and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants

Rescue, rehabilitation, and release of marine mammals: An analysis of current views and practices.

Stranded marine mammals have long attracted public attention. Those that wash up dead are, for all their value to science, seldom seen by the public as more than curiosities. Animals that are sick, injured, orphaned or abandoned ignite a different response. Generally, public sentiment supports any effort to rescue, treat and return them to sea. Institutions displaying marine mammals showed an early interest in live-stranded animals as a source of specimens -- in 1948, Marine Studios in St. Augustine, Florida, rescued a young short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus), the first ever in captivity (Kritzler 1952). Eventually, the public as well as government agencies looked to these institutions for their recognized expertise in marine mammal care and medicine. More recently, facilities have been established for the sole purpose of rehabilitating marine mammals and preparing them for return to the wild. Four such institutions are the Marine Mammal Center (Sausalito, CA), the Research Institute for Nature Management (Pieterburen, The Netherlands), the RSPCA, Norfolk Wildlife Hospital (Norfolk, United Kingdom) and the Institute for Wildlife Biology of Christian-Albrects University (Kiel, Germany).(PDF contains 68 pages.

Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry

This paper documents the dramatic changes in volatility that occurred in the U.S. auto industry in the early 1980s. Namely, output volatility declined significantly, the covariance of inventory investment and sales became much more negative, and adjustments to output, which in earlier decades stemmed primarily from plants hiring and laying off workers, were more often accomplished with changes in average hours per worker after the mid 1980s. Building on the work of Blanchard (1983), we show how all of these changes could have stemmed from one underlying factor%u2014a decline in the persistence of motor vehicle sales. We use both industry-level data as well as micro data on production schedules from 103 assembly plants in the United States and Canada to document the developments in the early 1980s. We then use the original Holt, Modigliani, Muth and Simon (1960) linear quadratic inventory model to show how a decline in the persistence of sales leads to all of the changes noted above, including the propensity to use intensive margins of adjustment over extensive labor margins, even in the absence of technological change.

Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry

Recent papers by Kim and Nelson (1999) and McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000) uncover a dramatic decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth beginning in 1984. Determining whether the source is good luck, good policy or better inventory management has since developed into an active area of research. This paper seeks to shed light on the source of the decline in volatility by studying the behavior of the U.S. automobile industry, where the changes in volatility have mirrored those of the aggregate data. We find that changes in the relative volatility of sales and output, which have been interpreted by some as evidence of improved inventory management, are in fact the result of changes in the process driving automobile sales. We first show that the autocorrelation of sales dropped during the 1980s, and that the behavior of interest rates may be the force behind the change in sales persistence. A simulation of the assembly plants' cost function illustrates that the persistence of sales is a key determinant of output volatility. A comparison of the ways in which assembly plants scheduled production in the 1990s relative to the 1970s supports the intuition of the simulation.

Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends

This note explains the diverging trends between real and nominal aggregate inventory-sales ratios. The combined effect of two features of the data explains the divergence. First, while aggregate sales include both goods and services, inventories include only goods. Second, there has been a strong secular decrease in the relative price of goods. The combination of these two factors causes the real and nominal aggregate inventory-sales ratios to have different trends.

Foreign Competition, Market Power and Wage Inequality: Theory and Evidence

In this paper, we present theory and evidence on the link between wage inequality and foreign competition in concentrated industries. We develop a simple model in which the impact of foreign competition on the relative wages of an economy depends on the market structure of the industry penetrated. We show that the more concentrated is the industry, the greater is the impact of trade on general wage inequality. We use the theory to argue why import competition in an industry such as automobiles is much more deleterious to the wages of the less educated than import competition in an industry such as apparel. We then test our hypothesis using a panel data set on relative wages across SMSAs. We reinterpret our model as a model of local economies, and test it using both the cross-sectional and time- series variation across labor markets.