Statistical mechanics of ecosystem assembly

We introduce a toy model of ecosystem assembly for which we are able to map out all assembly pathways generated by external invasions. The model allows to display the whole phase space in the form of an assembly graph whose nodes are communities of species and whose directed links are transitions between them induced by invasions. We characterize the process as a finite Markov chain and prove that it exhibits a unique set of recurrent states (the endstate of the process), which is therefore resistant to invasions. This also shows that the endstate is independent on the assembly history. The model shares all features with standard assembly models reported in the literature, with the advantage that all observables can be computed in an exact manner.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Trajectories for the 1976 - 1980 Grand Tour opportunities. Volume 3 - Trajectory data for alternate Grand Tour missions

Tabulating trajectory data for alternate Grand Tour missions from earth for period 1976 to 198

Evaluating the regional potential for emissions reduction using energy storage

Energy storage is an enabler of low carbon electricity generation, however several studies have shown that its use can cause a non-trivial increase in carbon emissions even if the storage has 100% round-trip efficiency. To understand the impact of storage operation and demand response on emissions, it is necessary to determine the marginal emissions factor (MEF) at the time the storage or demand response was operated. This paper presents statistical approaches to determining regional MEFs using data on regional electricity demand and generation by fuel type, with a simple power flow model used to determine consumption emissions by region. The technique is applied to the electricity system in Great Britain in 2018. It is found that the impact of storage varies widely by location and operating mode, with the greatest emissions reductions achieved when storage is used to reduce wind curtailment in areas which consume high levels of fossil fuel generation, and the greatest emissions increases occurring where storage is used for wind balancing in areas where wind is not curtailed. The difference between the highest emissions reduction and highest emissions increase is found to be significant, at 785 gCO2 per kWh that passes through storage

Reserves Protect against Deforestation Fires in the Amazon

BACKGROUND: Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon

The impacts of oil palm on recent deforestation and biodiversity loss

Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems

Quantifying the connectivity of a network: The network correlation function method

Networks are useful for describing systems of interacting objects, where the nodes represent the objects and the edges represent the interactions between them. The applications include chemical and metabolic systems, food webs as well as social networks. Lately, it was found that many of these networks display some common topological features, such as high clustering, small average path length (small world networks) and a power-law degree distribution (scale free networks). The topological features of a network are commonly related to the network's functionality. However, the topology alone does not account for the nature of the interactions in the network and their strength. Here we introduce a method for evaluating the correlations between pairs of nodes in the network. These correlations depend both on the topology and on the functionality of the network. A network with high connectivity displays strong correlations between its interacting nodes and thus features small-world functionality. We quantify the correlations between all pairs of nodes in the network, and express them as matrix elements in the correlation matrix. From this information one can plot the correlation function for the network and to extract the correlation length. The connectivity of a network is then defined as the ratio between this correlation length and the average path length of the network. Using this method we distinguish between a topological small world and a functional small world, where the latter is characterized by long range correlations and high connectivity. Clearly, networks which share the same topology, may have different connectivities, based on the nature and strength of their interactions. The method is demonstrated on metabolic networks, but can be readily generalized to other types of networks.Comment: 10 figure

Search in weighted complex networks

We study trade-offs presented by local search algorithms in complex networks which are heterogeneous in edge weights and node degree. We show that search based on a network measure, local betweenness centrality (LBC), utilizes the heterogeneity of both node degrees and edge weights to perform the best in scale-free weighted networks. The search based on LBC is universal and performs well in a large class of complex networks.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, minor changes, added a referenc