Increasing Incidence of Geomyces destructans Fungus in Bats from the Czech Republic and Slovakia

BACKGROUND: White-nose syndrome is a disease of hibernating insectivorous bats associated with the fungus Geomyces destructans. It first appeared in North America in 2006, where over a million bats died since then. In Europe, G. destructans was first identified in France in 2009. Its distribution, infection dynamics, and effects on hibernating bats in Europe are largely unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We screened hibernacula in the Czech Republic and Slovakia for the presence of the fungus during the winter seasons of 2008/2009 and 2009/2010. In winter 2009/2010, we found infected bats in 76 out of 98 surveyed sites, in which the majority had been previously negative. A photographic record of over 6000 hibernating bats, taken since 1994, revealed bats with fungal growths since 1995; however, the incidence of such bats increased in Myotis myotis from 2% in 2007 to 14% by 2010. Microscopic, cultivation and molecular genetic evaluations confirmed the identity of the recently sampled fungus as G. destructans, and demonstrated its continuous distribution in the studied area. At the end of the hibernation season we recorded pathologic changes in the skin of the affected bats, from which the fungus was isolated. We registered no mass mortality caused by the fungus, and the recorded population decline in the last two years of the most affected species, M. myotis, is within the population trend prediction interval. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: G. destructans was found to be widespread in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, with an epizootic incidence in bats during the most recent years. Further development of the situation urgently requires a detailed pan-European monitoring scheme

Early Warning Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract: Terms of use: Documents in We provide a critical review of the literature on early warning indicators of economics crises and propose methods to overcome several pitfalls of the previous contributions. We use a quarterly panel of 40 EU and OECD countries for the period 1970-2010. As the response variable, we construct a continuous index of crisis incidence capturing the real costs for the economy. As the potential warning indicators, we evaluate a wide range of variables, selected according to the previous literature and our own considerations. For each potential indicator we determine the optimal lead employing panel vector autoregression, then we select useful indicators employing Bayesian model averaging. We re-estimate the resulting specification by system GMM to account for potential endogeneity of some indicators. Subsequently, to allow for country heterogeneity, we evaluate the random coefficients estimator and illustrate the stability among endogenous clusters. Our results suggest that global variables rank among the most useful early warning indicators. In addition, housing prices emerge consistently as an important domestic source of risk