Risk, Uncertainty, and the Perceived Threat of Terrorist Attacks: Evidence of Flight-to-Quality

© 2013 World Scientific Publishing Company and Midwest Finance Association. Information provided by the US Department of Homeland Security regarding potential terrorist attacks significantly affects US Treasury securities markets. When the government announces heightened terror alert levels, investors\u27 perceptions of risk increase and investors purchase 1-month and 1-year Treasury bills and 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year US Treasuries in a flight-to-quality episode. Partial anticipation of increased threat level announcements is stronger than the anticipation of announcements regarding the federal funds rate during the 10 days prior to an announcement

Structurally dynamic spin market networks

The agent-based model of stock price dynamics on a directed evolving complex network is suggested and studied by direct simulation. The stationary regime is maintained as a result of the balance between the extremal dynamics, adaptivity of strategic variables and reconnection rules. The inherent structure of node agent "brain" is modeled by a recursive neural network with local and global inputs and feedback connections. For specific parametric combination the complex network displays small-world phenomenon combined with scale-free behavior. The identification of a local leader (network hub, agent whose strategies are frequently adapted by its neighbors) is carried out by repeated random walk process through network. The simulations show empirically relevant dynamics of price returns and volatility clustering. The additional emerging aspects of stylized market statistics are Zipfian distributions of fitness.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted in IJMPC, references added, minor changes in model, new results and modified figure

Designed to fail : a biopolitics of British Citizenship.

Tracing a route through the recent 'ugly history' of British citizenship, this article advances two central claims. Firstly, British citizenship has been designed to fail specific groups and populations. Failure, it argues, is a design principle of British citizenship, in the most active and violent sense of the verb to design: to mark out, to indicate, to designate. Secondly, British citizenship is a biopolitics - a field of techniques and practices (legal, social, moral) through which populations are controlled and fashioned. This article begins with the 1981 Nationality Act and the violent conflicts between the police and black communities in Brixton that accompanied the passage of the Act through the British parliament. Employing Michel Foucault's concept of state racism, it argues that the 1981 Nationality Act marked a pivotal moment in the design of British citizenship and has operated as the template for a glut of subsequent nationality legislation that has shaped who can achieve citizenship. The central argument is that the existence of populations of failed citizens within Britain is not an accident of flawed design, but is foundational to British citizenship. For many 'national minorities' the lived realities of biopolitical citizenship stand in stark contradistinction to contemporary governmental accounts of citizenship that stress community cohesion, political participation, social responsibility, rights and pride in shared national belonging

Quantum cat maps with spin 1/2

We derive a semiclassical trace formula for quantized chaotic transformations of the torus coupled to a two-spinor precessing in a magnetic field. The trace formula is applied to semiclassical correlation densities of the quantum map, which, according to the conjecture of Bohigas, Giannoni and Schmit, are expected to converge to those of the circular symplectic ensemble (CSE) of random matrices. In particular, we show that the diagonal approximation of the spectral form factor for small arguments agrees with the CSE prediction. The results are confirmed by numerical investigations.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figure

The mechanism of the Einstellung (set) effect: A pervasive source of cognitive bias

Copyright @ The Authors 2010The eye movements of expert players trying to solve a chess problem show that the first idea that comes to mind directs attention towards sources of information consistent with itself and away from inconsistent information. This bias continues unconsciously even when the player believes he is looking for alternatives. The result is that alternatives to the first idea are ignored. This mechanism for biasing attention ensures a speedy response in familiar situations but it can lead to errors when the first thought that comes to mind is not appropriate. We propose that this mechanism is the source of many cognitive biases from phenomena in problem solving and reasoning, to perceptual errors and failures in memory

Testing Wagner’s law versus the Keynesian hypothesis for GCC countries

© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This paper examines the relationship between real GDP and government spending for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Linear Granger causality tests in the time and frequency domains provide moderate support for Wagner’s law in four countries and weak support for the Keynesian model in two countries. In contrast, asymmetric nonlinear causality tests in the frequency domain support Wagner’s law in five countries, while some form of the Keynesian hypothesis is valid in all six GCC countries. Our results illustrate the importance of using nonlinear, asymmetric models to examine causal relationships

Halothane hepatitis with renal failure treated with hemodialysis and exchange transfusion

A 38-year-old white female, hepatitis B antigen negative, developed fluminating hepatic failure associated with oliguria and severe azotemia after two halothane anesthesia and without exposure to other hepatotoxic drugs or blood transfusions. She was treated with multiple hemodialysis and exchange blood transfusion. The combined treatment corrected the uremic abnormalities and improved her level of consciousness. The liver and kidney function gradually improved, and she made a complete recovery, the first recorded with hepatic and renal failure under these post-anesthetic conditions. Further evaluation of this combined treatment used for this patient is warranted. © 1974 The Japan Surgical Society

Digital herders and phase transition in a voting model

In this paper, we discuss a voting model with two candidates, C_1 and C_2. We set two types of voters--herders and independents. The voting of independent voters is based on their fundamental values; on the other hand, the voting of herders is based on the number of votes. Herders always select the majority of the previous $r$ votes, which is visible to them. We call them digital herders. We can accurately calculate the distribution of votes for special cases. When r>=3, we find that a phase transition occurs at the upper limit of t, where t is the discrete time (or number of votes). As the fraction of herders increases, the model features a phase transition beyond which a state where most voters make the correct choice coexists with one where most of them are wrong. On the other hand, when r<3, there is no phase transition. In this case, the herders' performance is the same as that of the independent voters. Finally, we recognize the behavior of human beings by conducting simple experiments.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figure

Towards an effective fiscal stimulus : evidence from Botswana

Abstract: While there is a general agreement on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus, there is no consensus on which stimulus is better. To address this concern, this paper uses a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to propose a fiscal stimulus that Botswana can adopt given the slowing mining productivity. The results suggest that short-run macroeconomic stabilisation can be achieved through a cut in labour taxes. This fiscal stimulus generates larger growth multipliers and contributes relatively more employment compared to a cut in consumption tax and increases in government spending. The findings also revealed that a cut in labour taxes improves trade balance, resulting in a greater accumulation of international reserves and has no Dutch disease effects. These results suggest the need for a labour tax policy reform. These results also offer some policy options for other developing countries, which may face similar fiscal risks in future