Water balance complexities in ephemeral catchments with different land uses: Insights from monitoring and distributed hydrologic modeling

Although ephemeral catchments are widespread in arid and semiarid climates, the relationship of their water balance with climate, geology, topography, and land cover is poorly known. Here we use 4 years (2011–2014) of rainfall, streamflow, and groundwater level measurements to estimate the water balance components in two adjacent ephemeral catchments in south-eastern Australia, with one catchment planted with young eucalypts and the other dedicated to grazing pasture. To corroborate the interpretation of the observations, the physically based hydrological model CATHY was calibrated and validated against the data in the two catchments. The estimated water balances showed that despite a significant decline in groundwater level and greater evapotranspiration in the eucalypt catchment (104–119% of rainfall) compared with the pasture catchment (95–104% of rainfall), streamflow consistently accounted for 1–4% of rainfall in both catchments for the entire study period. Streamflow in the two catchments was mostly driven by the rainfall regime, particularly rainfall frequency (i.e., the number of rain days per year), while the downslope orientation of the plantation furrows also promoted runoff. With minimum calibration, the model was able to adequately reproduce the periods of flow in both catchments in all years. Although streamflow and groundwater levels were better reproduced in the pasture than in the plantation, model-computed water balance terms confirmed the estimates from the observations in both catchments. Overall, the interplay of climate, topography, and geology seems to overshadow the effect of land use in the study catchments, indicating that the management of ephemeral catchments remains highly challenging

Stochastic Rainfall-runoff Model with Explicit Soil Moisture Dynamics

Stream runoff is perhaps the most poorly represented process in ecohydrological stochastic soil moisture models. Here we present a rainfall-runoff model with a new stochastic description of runoff linked to soil moisture dynamics. We describe the rainfall-runoff system as the joint probability density function (PDF) of rainfall, soil moisture and runoff forced by random, instantaneous jumps of rainfall. We develop a master equation for the soil moisture PDF that accounts explicitly for a general state-dependent rainfall-runoff transformation. This framework is then used to derive the joint rainfall-runoff and soil moisture-runoff PDFs. Runoff is initiated by a soil moisture threshold and a linear progressive partitioning of rainfall based on the soil moisture status. We explore the dependence of the PDFs on the rainfall occurrence PDF (homogeneous or state-dependent Poisson process) and the rainfall magnitude PDF (exponential or mixed-exponential distribution). We calibrate the model to 63 years of rainfall and runoff data from the Upper Little Tennessee watershed (USA) and show how the new model can reproduce the measured runoff PDF

Direct Determinations of the Redshift Behavior of the Pressure, Energy Density, and Equation of State of the Dark Energy and the Acceleration of the Universe

One of the goals of current cosmological studies is the determination of the expansion and acceleration rates of the universe as functions of redshift, and the determination of the properties of the dark energy that can explain these observations. Here the expansion and acceleration rates are determined directly from the data, without the need for the specification of a theory of gravity, and without adopting an a priori parameterization of the form or redshift evolution of the dark energy. We use the latest set of distances to SN standard candles from Riess et al. (2004), supplemented by data on radio galaxy standard ruler sizes, as described by Daly and Djorgovski (2003, 2004). We find that the universe transitions from acceleration to deceleration at a redshift of about 0.4. The standard "concordance model" provides a reasonably good fit to the dimensionless expansion rate as a function of redshift, though it fits the dimensionless acceleration rate as a function of redshift less well. The expansion and acceleration rates are then combined with a theory of gravity to determine the pressure, energy density, and equation of state of the dark energy as functions of redshift. Adopting General Relativity as the correct theory of gravity, the redshift trends for the pressure, energy density, and equation of state of the dark energy out to redshifts of about one are determined, and are found to be generally consistent with the concordance model.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures. Invited presentation at Coral Gables 200

Estimating the private rate of return to education for Indigenous Australians

The purpose of this discussion paper is to estimate the private rate of return to post-compulsory education for Indigenous compared with other Australians. The results presented here show that there are considerable financial benefits to completing a post-secondary qualification for Indigenous people but the return to additional post-compulsory schooling is less attractive. Compared to others born in Australia, the private rates of return for Indigenous Australians were estimated to be lower for post-compulsory schooling and higher for post-secondary qualifications. These lower private rates of return to post-compulsory schooling could in part explain the low retention rates of Indigenous youth to year 12. The high estimated rates of return to post-secondary qualifications may well reflect the particular abilities and levels of motivation of the small group of Indigenous Australians who now have these qualfications. Both education and employment and training policies have an important role to play in enabling Indigenous Australians to increase their opportunities in the labour force