Personal Vehicles Evaluated against Climate Change Mitigation Targets

Meeting global climate change mitigation goals will likely require that transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions begin to decline within the next two decades and then continue to fall. A variety of vehicle technologies and fuels are commercially available to consumers today that can reduce the emissions of the transportation sector. Yet what are the best options, and do any suffice to meet climate policy targets? Here, we examine the costs and carbon intensities of 125 light-duty vehicle models on the U.S. market today and evaluate these models against U.S. emission-reduction targets for 2030, 2040, and 2050 that are compatible with the goal of limiting mean global temperature rise to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Our results show that consumers are not required to pay more for a low-carbon-emitting vehicle. Across the diverse set of vehicle models and powertrain technologies examined, a clean vehicle is usually a low-cost vehicle. Although the average carbon intensity of vehicles sold in 2014 exceeds the climate target for 2030 by more than 50%, we find that most hybrid and battery electric vehicles available today meet this target. By 2050, only electric vehicles supplied with almost completely carbon-free electric power are expected to meet climate-policy targets

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

Carbon Nanotube Solar Cells

We present proof-of-concept all-carbon solar cells. They are made of a photoactive side of predominantly semiconducting nanotubes for photoconversion and a counter electrode made of a natural mixture of carbon nanotubes or graphite, connected by a liquid electrolyte through a redox reaction. The cells do not require rare source materials such as In or Pt, nor high-grade semiconductor processing equipment, do not rely on dye for photoconversion and therefore do not bleach, and are easy to fabricate using a spray-paint technique. We observe that cells with a lower concentration of carbon nanotubes on the active semiconducting electrode perform better than cells with a higher concentration of nanotubes. This effect is contrary to the expectation that a larger number of nanotubes would lead to more photoconversion and therefore more power generation. We attribute this to the presence of metallic nanotubes that provide a short for photo-excited electrons, bypassing the load. We demonstrate optimization strategies that improve cell efficiency by orders of magnitude. Once it is possible to make semiconducting-only carbon nanotube films, that may provide the greatest efficiency improvement

Historical costs of coal-fired electricity and implications for the future.

Abstract We study the costs of coal-fired electricity in the United States between 1882 and 2006 by decomposing it in terms of the price of coal, transportation costs, energy density, thermal efficiency, plant construction cost, interest rate, and capacity factor. The dominant determinants of costs at present are the price of coal and plant construction cost. The price of coal appears to fluctuate more or less randomly while the construction cost follows long-term trends, decreasing from 1902 -1970, increasing from 1970 -1990, and leveling off or decreasing a little since then. This leads us to forecast that even without carbon capture and storage, and even under an optimistic scenario in which construction costs resume their previously decreasing trending behavior, the cost of coal-based electricity will drop for a while but eventually be determined by the price of coal, which varies stochastically but shows no long term decreasing trends. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of using long time series and comparing different electricity generation technologies using total costs, rather than costs of single components like capital

Historical costs of coal-fired electricity and implications for the future

We study the cost of coal-fired electricity in the United States between 1882 and 2006 by decomposing it in terms of the price of coal, transportation cost, energy density, thermal efficiency, plant construction cost, interest rate, capacity factor, and operations and maintenance cost. The dominant determinants of cost have been the price of coal and plant construction cost. The price of coal appears to fluctuate more or less randomly while the construction cost follows long-term trends, decreasing from 1902 to 1970, increasing from 1970 to 1990, and leveling off since then. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of using long time series and comparing electricity generation technologies using decomposed total costs, rather than costs of single components like capital. By taking this approach we find that the history of coal-fired electricity suggests there is a fluctuating floor to its future costs, which is determined by coal prices. Even if construction costs resumed a decreasing trend, the cost of coal-based electricity would drop for a while but eventually be determined by the price of coal, which fluctuates while showing no long-term trend.Coal Electricity Historical cost

Abundance-range size relationships of breeding and wintering birds in Britain: a comparative analysis

When microstructures are characterized by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), the interpretation of results is facilitated if the material can be sectioned in defined orientations. In the case of fibres, it is especially useful if transverse and longitudinal sections can be obtained reliably. Here we describe a procedure for orienting spider silk and other flexible fibres for TEM investigation. Prior to embedding in epoxy resin, the silk is wound around a notched support made from polyester film. No glue is required. After the silk and its supporting film have been embedded and the resin has been cured the film can be peeled away to reveal nearly perfectly orientated silk threads. Both transverse and longitudinal sections can then be cut with a microtome. The method can be extended to obtain sections at any intermediate orientation

Nanostructural features of a spider dragline silk as revealed by electron and X-ray diffraction studies

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) were used to examine the nanostructure of a natural polymer-a spider dragline silk-that has potential applications as an engineering material. The silk studied was collected from the cob-web weaving spider Latrodectus hesperus. Single crystal and polycrystalline electron diffraction patterns indicate the presence of crystals with a bimodal size distribution, in the range of 2 nm and 40-120 nm. The chain axis of the smaller crystals is more strictly aligned with the fiber axis than that of the larger crystals. Lattice parameters for the orthogonal unit cell are: a=9.4 Å (interchain), b=7.0 Å (dipeptide, fiber axis) and c=10.8 Å (intersheet). A fine structure in single crystal electron diffraction patterns indicates possible composition-dependent lattice strains. Results of tensile tests of the spider dragline silk are reported, and a simple model is presented linking the observed nanostructural features to the force-elongation response of this material. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

The Role of Design Complexity in Technology Improvement

We study a simple model for the evolution of the cost (or more generally the performance) of a technology or production process. The technology can be decomposed into n components, each of which interacts with a cluster of d - 1 other components. Innovation occurs through a series of trial-and-error events, each of which consists of randomly changing the cost of each component in a cluster, and accepting the changes only if the total cost of the cluster is lowered. We show that the relationship between the cost of the whole technology and the number of innovation attempts is asymptotically a power law, matching the functional form often observed for empirical data. The exponent α of the power law depends on the intrinsic difficulty of finding better components, and on what we term the design complexity: the more complex the design, the slower the rate of improvement. Letting d as defined above be the connectivity, in the special case in which the connectivity is constant, the design complexity is simply the connectivity. When the connectivity varies, bottlenecks can arise in which a few components limit progress. In this case the design complexity depends on the details of the design. The number of bottlenecks also determines whether progress is steady, or whether there are periods of stasis punctuated by occasional large changes. Our model connects the engineering properties of a design to historical studies of technology improvement.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant SBE0738187)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant DMR0535503