Turning Unemployment into Self-Employment: Effectiveness and Efficiency of Two Start-Up Programmes

Turning unemployment into self-employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self-employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. The contribution of the present paper is twofold: first, we evaluate the effectiveness of two start-up programmes for the unemployed. Our outcome variables include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed, and personal income. Second, based on the results of this analysis, we conduct an efficiency analysis, i.e., we estimate whether the Federal Employment Agency has saved money by placing unemployed individuals in these programmes. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective and one is also efficient. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self-employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhereStart-up subsidies, evaluation, effectiveness, efficiency, self-employment

The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals

Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects are hard to identify without model assumptions. We develop a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job-search behavioral outcomes, like the reservation wage, to each other, among newly unemployed workers. Job search theory is used to derive theoretical predictions. To deal with effect heterogeneity and selectivity, the effects of interest are estimated by propensity score matching. We apply the method to the German ALMP system, using a novel data set including self-reported assessments of the variables of interest as well as an unusually detailed amount of information on behavior, attitudes, and past outcomes. We find that the system generates a negative ex ante effect on the reservation wage and a positive effect on search effort.program evaluation, unemployment duration, expectations, search effort, reservation wage, policy evaluation, active labor market policy, identification

The Threat Effect of Participation in Active Labor Market Programs on Job Search Behavior of Migrants in Germany

Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects may differ according to ethnic origin. We apply a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job search behavioral outcomes, such as the reservation wage or search intensity, to each other. We compare German native workers with migrants with a Turkish origin or Central and Eastern European (including Russian) background. Job search theory is used to derive theoretical predictions. We examine the omnibus ex ante effect of the German ALMP system, using the novel IZA Evaluation Data Set, which includes self-reported assessments of the variables of interest as well as an unusually detailed amount of information on behavior, attitudes and past outcomes. We find that the ex ante threat effect on the reservation wage and search effort varies considerably among the groups considered.unemployment duration, immigrants, active labor market policy, policy evaluation, reservation wage, program evaluation, expectations, search effort

The threat effect of participation in active labor market programs on job search behavior of migrants in Germany

Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals’ behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects may differ according to ethnic origin. We apply a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job search behav­ioral outcomes, such as the reservation wage or search intensity, to each other. We compare German native workers with migrants with a Turkish origin or Central and Eastern European (including Russian) background. Job search theory is used to de­rive theoretical predictions. We examine the omnibus ex ante effect of the German ALMP system, using the novel IZA Evaluation Data Set, which includes self-reported assessments of the variables of interest as well as an unusually detailed amount of in­formation on behavior, attitudes and past outcomes. We find that the ex ante threat effect on the reservation wage and search effort varies considerably among the groups considered.Immigrants; policy evaluation; reservation wage; search effort; expectations; unemploy­ment duration; program evaluation; active labor market policy.

Existenzgründungsförderung für Arbeitslose: neue Ergebnisse für Deutschland

Die Existenzgründungsförderung für Arbeitslose gewinnt als arbeitsmarktpolitisches Instrument in Deutschland zunehmend an Bedeutung. Während es im Jahre 1994 nur knapp 37 000 geförderte Gründungen gab, waren es 2004 schon mehr als 350 000. Ausschlaggebend für diese Entwicklung war u. a. die Einführung des Existenzgründungszuschusses (Ich-AG) zum 1. Januar 2003 im Rahmen der Hartz-Reformen. Neben dem schon seit längerem bestehenden Überbrückungsgeld steht seitdem ein zweites Förderinstrument für gründungswillige Arbeitslose zur Verfügung. Erste Ergebnisse zur Effektivität beider Programme aus einem Evaluationsprojekt für das ehemalige Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit zeigen, dass beide Programme hinsichtlich der Vermeidung einer Rückkehr in die Arbeitslosigkeit als erfolgreich angesehen werden können. Die Teilnehmer beider Programme haben - im Vergleich zu einer Kontrollgruppe von nichtgeförderten Arbeitslosen - sechzehn Monate nach Beginn der Maßnahmen eine deutlich geringere Wahrscheinlichkeit, arbeitslos gemeldet zu sein. Insbesondere für das Überbrückungsgeld kann diese Aussage bereits auf einen längeren Zeitraum nach Beendigung der Förderung gestützt werden, während bei der Ich-AG die Förderung noch andauert und somit erst ein Zwischenfazit möglich ist. Deutlich wird auch, dass beide Programme unterschiedliche Personengruppen ansprechen, wobei die Überbrückungsgeldempfänger im Durchschnitt höher qualifiziert sind als Teilnehmer am Existenzgründungszuschuss und diese wiederum besser qualifiziert sind als nicht geförderte Arbeitslose. Hinsichtlich der durch die Förderungen induzierten zusätzlichen Beschäftigungseffekte zeigen sich ebenfalls merkliche Unterschiede zwischen beiden Programmen: 90 % aller durch einen Existenzgründungszuschuss geförderten Gründer/ innen arbeiteten zum Untersuchungszeitpunkt nach wie vor in der klassischen Ein-Personen- Ich- AG. Dagegen haben bereits etwa 30 % der durch Überbrückungsgeld geförderten Männer und 22 % der Frauen mindestens einen Mitarbeiter.

The IZA Evaluation Dataset: Towards Evidence-Based Labor Policy-Making

The evaluation of labor market policies has become an important issue in many European countries. In recent years, a number of them have opened their administrative databases for evaluation studies. The advantages of administrative data are straightforward: they are accurate, contain a large number of observations (in some cases the whole population) and usually cover a long period of time. However, the information contained in administrative data is normally limited to administrative purposes. Therefore, information that might be relevant for economic modeling is often absent. The IZA Evaluation Dataset aims to overcome such limitations for Germany by complementing administrative data from the Federal Employment Agency with innovative survey data. The administrative part of the dataset consists of a large random sample of inflows into unemployment in Germany from 2001 to 2008 and contains around 920,000 individuals. The complementary survey covers a panel of more than 17,000 individuals who entered unemployment between June 2007 and May 2008. They were initially interviewed shortly after becoming unemployed and then again one year later. In addition, a quarter of individuals were interviewed already after six months. The survey data also contain information on search behavior, ethnic and social networks, psychological factors, (non-)cognitive abilities, and attitudes. This paper describes the sampling and contents of the IZA Evaluation Dataset and outlines the future development.survey and administrative data, labor market policies, evaluation, attitudes, behavior, skills

How the economics profession got it wrong on Brexit

Some of the most widely cited predictions of the economic effects of Brexit rely on flawed analysis, particularly of the performance of the UK after it joined the EEC, and on the link between trade and productivity, write Ken Coutts (left), Graham Gudgin (University of Cambridge) and Jordan Buchanan (right) (Ulster University Economic Policy Centre). In order to restore public confidence in economic forecasting for major policy issues, economists need to use more relevant analyses, based on a wider range of evidence

Real-time PCR improves detection of Trichomonas vaginalis infection compared with culture using self-collected vaginal swabs.

OBJECTIVE: To compare a real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay with broth culture for the detection of Trichomonas vaginalis using self-collected vaginal swabs. METHODS: Self-collected vaginal swabs were obtained from adolescent and young adult African-American women participating in HIV-1 prevention programs. T. vaginalis culture was performed using the InPouch TV System. Samples for the real-time PCR assay were collected using the BDProbeTec ET Culturette Direct Dry Swab system and tested in a laboratory-developed assay which targeted a repeated sequence of the genome. Discrepant samples that were culture negative and positive in the real-time PCR assay were tested in a confirmatory PCR which targeted a different region of the T. vaginalis genome, the18S ribosomal DNA gene. RESULTS: Of the 524 specimens tested by both culture and real-time PCR, 36 were culture positive and 54 were positive in the real-time PCR assay; 16 of the 18 discrepant specimens were also positive in the confirmatory PCR assay. Using a modified gold standard of positive by culture or positive in both PCR assays, the sensitivity of the real-time PCR assay was 100% and the specificity was 99.6%, whereas culture had a sensitivity of 69.2% and a specificity of 100%. CONCLUSIONS: The real-time PCR assay was sensitive and specific for the detection of T. vaginalis DNA from self-collected vaginal swab specimens. The ability to use the BDProbeTec dry swab system for the real-time PCR testing allowed for the detection of Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and T. vaginalis from a single specimen